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Dave's free NFL betting picks for Week 18 and expert predictions for 2024. His NFL best bets for Week 18 and his favorite plays. Who should you bet in Week 18?
Man, we are white hot as we reach the NFL playoffs. The Lions and Chargers both covered for us last week, and that propelled us to another 2-0 outing. We are now 10-2 for +8.7 units since Week 12. Hopefully, you’ve been riding the wave and made some cash.
The card this week is a bit tricky. With most of the playoff spots already secured, it’s hard to tell what everyone’s motivations are. That can make picking games more difficult than usual. Still, I’ve identified a few matchups I’m targeting this week, so let’s try to keep our hot streak going.
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Detroit Lions (-2.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings
This is without a doubt the biggest game of the weekend. With the Lions coming off a Monday night game in San Francisco, Minnesota will have the rest advantage in this game. However, Detroit already beat the Vikings 31-29 in Minnesota earlier this year. That victory ended a five-game Vikings winning streak and saw Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson solve the puzzle of the Vikings' hyper-aggressive, blitzing defense.
Amon-Ra St. Brown wide open for a 35-yard touchdown! pic.twitter.com/UMhiUdRa6u
— LionsFanReport (@lionsfanreport) October 20, 2024
Detroit is a little more banged up on defense ahead of the rematch, but it still ranks seventh in defensive DVOA, per FTN Fantasy. The Vikings do hold the edge defensively in this game, but Johnson beat this aggressive defense by using multiple bunch formations to slow the Vikings’ pass rush and expose the Minnesota secondary. Expect to see more of the same on Sunday night.
With the Lions defense missing multiple key contributors, we should see another high-scoring affair. While Vikings starter Sam Darnold has played well this year, he has been prone to errant throws and poor decisions. That could be the difference in this game. Special teams play could also be a factor as Detroit ranks second in special teams DVOA, compared to 24th for Minnesota.
Even with their injuries on defense, I make the Lions almost four-point home favorites. Expect Johnson and the Lions offense to once again have the answers to Brian Flores’ defense as the Lions look to secure home-field advantage.
Pick: Lions -2.5 (-120) DraftKings Sportsbook
Risk .6 Units to Win .5 Units
Dallas Cowboys +4.5 vs. Washington Commanders
Washington will look to avenge a Week 12 home loss to the Cowboys this weekend. The Commanders already have a playoff spot secured, but a win here locks them into the No. 5 seed, which means they would avoid a date with the division-rival Philadelphia Eagles in the first round of the playoffs. That seems like plenty of motivation for Washington to try and win this week.
The Commanders defense is a bit of a liability. However, with Dallas missing CeeDee Lamb, it may not be able to take advantage of Washington’s secondary. Division games can be tricky, but the Commanders are just the better team.
Look for Washington to make a statement here as it tries to keep building momentum for a playoff run.
Pick: Commanders -4.5 (-110) Bet365 Sportsbook
Risk .33 Units to Win .3 Units
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