RADIO
After grinding MLB player props almost exclusively last week, I took the weekend off as I was in Canton for the fantasy football expo. That was a cool event and I was happy to meet a lot of great folks from the industry. But it's Tuesday once again and that means a full slate of MLB games and one of my favorite days each week for player props since we have so many options to choose from!
Attention fellow sports bettors! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with various sportsbooks and have some sweet sports betting promo offers! Get your deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access, when you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win big.
In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Tuesday, August 15, 2023. If you ever want to chat about strikeout props or any other MLB bets, you can find me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS.
Featured Promo: Get any full-season Props Premium Pass for 10% off using code BALLER. Win big with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!
MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Zack Wheeler OVER 6.5 strikeouts (-140 DraftKings)
I know what you're thinking. But Dan, Wheels has just 10 total strikeouts over his last 12 innings and this is an away game against the mighty Toronto Blue Jays!
Well, the matchups against Miami and Washington were tougher than most think and not ideal for strikeouts. He still pitched well enough in those games to earn a quality start in each and his pinpoint control has continued as he's now walked only one hitter or fewer in seven straight starts.
Zack Wheeler, Painted 84mph Sweeper. 🖌️🎨 pic.twitter.com/4rjy6HhOeA
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 8, 2023
Toronto is a better matchup than you might think. They are striking out more often against RHP this season and bring a 23 K% to the plate today over the last month. Toronto also projects to have six RHHs in the lineup today against Wheeler, which plays right into his strengths since he has some wide K% splits this year (33% vs. RHP, only 22% vs. LHP).
Wheeler throws his hard sinker in on righties and has been incredibly effective in limiting hard contact with that pitch. He also uses his sweeper against RHH instead of his slider with the sweeper being a better out pitch for him (43% whiff rate this season). Remember, this is a Toronto team that is starting Paul DeJong at SS these days (30 K% vs. RHP) instead of one of their best young hitters (Bo Bichette).
Logan Allen OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-150 DraftKings)
Logan Allen has had a solid rookie year, but he has been a bit all over the place with his strikeout output at times. He's sitting right around 22% on the season, which is typically the league average. But I am not sure he's just an average pitcher. In fact, we have seen him at times look dominant. He has eight or more strikeouts in four starts this season.
But we just need five strikeouts today and that feels like a low bar even for a guy who has pitched pretty "average" this season. He only struck out three Blue Jays in his last start, but he had five or more strikeouts in five of his last six starts before that. This game is in Cincy (ugh) but the Reds have been pretty woeful against lefties over the last month with a 25% strikeout rate and just a 74 wRC+. I am giving Allen the benefit of the doubt here. I think he gets it done against the Reds in the Battle of Ohio.
Kyle Hendricks AND Bailey Ober BOTH UNDER 1.5 walks (Parlay = +119 DraftKings)
I couldn't bring myself to recommend David Peterson over 4.5 strikeouts even though my model likes it, mainly because of his pitch count. So I am doing something I rarely do in these articles and recommending a parlay. Kyle Hendricks has had great control most of the season. Before walking two hitters in his last start, he had limited those free passes to just one or fewer in eight straight.
Bailey Ober has been fantastic, too. He has allowed just one total walk over his last five starts and has hit this prop in nine of his last ten. Pairing them together gets us some nice odds at +119.
Sports Betting Promo Offers
Featured Promo: Get any VIP Betting Premium Pass for 10% off using code BALLER. Win more with exclusive betting picks from proven winners across 9 sports! Find optimal bets with our Betting Picks Tool and Bet Weighting Tool and follow along in our VIP chat rooms! Go Premium, Win More!
MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Freddie Freeman OVER 1.5 total bases (-105 DraftKings)
This is a spot where the splits for the hitter and pitcher match up just beautifully. I don't think I need to do much convincing here with Freddie Freeman, as he's been universally recognized as one of the top five to 10 hitters in the game. He's a guy who is going to get the most out of every at-bat and is someone who hits this prop with regularity because of his ability to collect extra-base hits AND his ability to have multi-hit games.
This slow-mo of Freddie Freeman’s homer 🔥 pic.twitter.com/Wqw43LDjcq
— Ben Cary (@Ben_Cary_) August 7, 2023
Since last season, Freddie has a .412 wOBA and .203 ISO against RHP. He strikes out just 13.9% of the time and is making hard contact over 51% of the time. Meanwhile, Adrian Houser has been notoriously bad against lefties in his career and this season has been no different. He gets a bunch of ground balls against righties (54%) but that number drops to just 37.5% against lefties as they have hit him to the tune of a .354 wOBA and .179 ISO allowed in 2023.
If you want better odds, you can also bet on his teammate Max Muncy at +120. Max actually had a slightly better overall profile than Freddie, but both guys just absolutely mash his main pitches (four-seamer, sinker, slider).
Trea Turner OVER 1.5 total bases (+120 DraftKings)
I was really torn on whether I go with Trea Turner or Nick Castellanos, as both guys have been hitting the ball well and match up favorably here against the lefty Yusei Kikuchi. Turner was in a pretty bad funk for much of the year, but lately, he's really shown signs of returning to form as he has five multi-hit games over the last two weeks. He has been hitting for some power, too, with two home runs and six doubles already this month. I know he's dropped down in the lineup and bats seventh, but I still think he's a great play today for two bases or more. He's hit this number now in eight of his last nine games. His teammate, Casty, is +125 and is someone I will likely have some exposure to also.
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!
