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Today's free MLB prop betting picks for Tuesday, August 1, 2023. Use Dan Palyo's top baseball prop picks and MLB prop bet recommendations to win money on sports books.
Tuesdays are one the best days for prop betting! We always get a loaded 15-game slate and therefore we can be picky with our picks since we have so many games to choose from!
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Tuesday, August 1, 2023. If you ever want to chat about strikeout props or any other MLB bets, you can find me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS. Good luck today and let's cash some bets!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Spencer Strider OVER 9.5 strikeouts (-135 DraftKings)
When it comes to strikeouts, there is Spencer Strider and then there is everyone else. His 39.7% strikeout rate is nearly 7% higher than the second-best K-rate of 33% owned by the split-finger assassin Kevin Gausman. Strider has 10+ strikeouts in four straight starts and five of his last six.
Spencer Strider, Teleporting 99mph ⛽️ pic.twitter.com/xuoVhRoagj
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 26, 2023
Today he will face a new-look Angels lineup that now features CJ Cron and Randall Grichuk. While I would expect the Angels to be better offensively in the long run, this lineup is now incredibly strikeout prone against RHP with every projected starter carrying a 20% or higher K% to righties this season. Strider is in an incredible groove right now and the Angels are swinging and missing a lot - it's the perfect storm for another double-digit strikeout game from Strider.
I happened to see this one posted last night before I hit the sack and it was -110 when it opened. Obviously, the public likes Strider a bit and so the odds have moved since then, but there's still some solid value here at -135.
Kyle Bradish OVER 16.5 outs (-130 DraftKings)
I have been a big fan of what Bradish has done this season. He's taken the next step towards being a reliable starter in this league and while he's not exactly ace material, he's showing that he has the type of stuff to be a solid middle-of-the-rotation arm for years to come.
The strikeout prop is set at 5.5 today and it's a little too rich for my blood with Bradish having a lower K% against RHH and the Jays rolling out six of them in their lineup nightly. However, I do think Bradish can pitch effectively enough to make it through six innings against a struggling Toronto team. He's gone 6+ innings in six straight starts and seven of his last eight. He's keeping his walks down and avoiding big innings, which has allowed him to pitch deeper into games. You could even argue the Orioles left him in a little too long against the Phillies in his last start, but it's good to see that he has the confidence of his manager to pitch through trouble.
Brayan Bello OVER 17.5 outs (-120 DraftKings)
With very few K props that interest me, I am going with another outs prop here. I like the spot for Bello here against the Mariners, but I don't have enough faith in his strikeout abilities to bet on him over 5.5 as he's really struggled to strike out lefties this year (only a 14.4% K%).
But like Bradish, Bello has really been a grinder this year for his team and has been able to give them quality starts on a regular basis. The Boston rotation is incredibly thin right now, so Bello pitching deep into games has been big for them as they've had to use openers and go with bullpen games without a reliable fifth starter.
Bello has gone 6+ innings now in eight of his last nine starts with the lone hiccup being a fluky bad road loss in Oakland two starts ago. I have faith in the Boston youngster to pitch effectively tonight to complete six frames so we can cash this bet.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Luis Robert Jr. OVER 1.5 total bases (+110 DraftKings)
It's really a shame that the White Sox crashed and burned this year because Robert Jr.'s breakout season is now happening for a team heading nowhere for what appears to be several more seasons as Chicago has traded away three of their top pitchers in the last few days.
Robert is making some seriously loud contact this season and he's pulverizing lefties with a .443 wOBA and .298 ISO. He gets to face a pitcher here in Andrew Heaney who relies heavily on his fastball and that's a pitch that Robert Jr. can crush (and he has since he went 2-3 with a home run against Heaney earlier this year). I love the odds here for an elite power hitter who has a nice matchup and is on the right side of his splits.
Ryan Mountcastle OVER 1.5 total bases (-105 DraftKings)
Apparently, Mountcastle owns the Blue Jays. I was unaware of that but I was scrolling through Twitter and saw all the Oriole fan reactions as Mounty drove in three of the Orioles' four runs last night in a big 4-2 win for the Birds. Since the All-Star break, Mountcastle is hitting .333 with two home runs, four doubles, and six RBI.
EVERYDAY THE CITY OF TORONTO WAKES UP AND PRAYS THAT THEY DONT HAVE TO FACE RYAN MOUNTCASTLE pic.twitter.com/F4l6NLKpkT
— Zach Bollinger (@zachbollinger18) July 31, 2023
Mountcastle's return to the lineup this July after missing a big chunk of time on the IL has been a big boost to this offense. Going back to last season, he owns a .425 wOBA against lefties and an elite .322 ISO. He faces the veteran Hyun-Jin Ryu who is making his season debut for Toronto today after missing the entire season thus far with an injury. Ryu is a crafty lefty, but he doesn't throw hard and allowed a lot of contact last season. This is a spot where I think Mounty can stay hot with another extra-base hit and continue to torment the Blue Jays.
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