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Today's free MLB prop betting picks for Monday, Aug. 21, 2023. Use Brenton's top baseball prop picks and MLB prop bets recommendations to win money on sportsbooks.
We have a solid 10-game MLB schedule going down this Monday evening, meaning it's officially time to get our week started on the right note!
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In this article, I'll be providing my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Monday, Aug. 21, 2023. Without any further adieu, let's take a look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Aaron Nola over 6.5 strikeouts (+100, DraftKings sportsbook)
The Phillies and Giants open up a series tonight in Philadelphia and we'll look for Phillies right-hander Aaron Nola to hit the over 6.5 strikeouts in this one.
The fact this game is in Philly is an important one. Not only has Nola long been at his best at home, including this season where he owns a 3.59 ERA versus a 5.26 mark on the road, but he also racks up more punchouts at home. The veteran's 27.9% K% at home is notably superior to his 23.8% clip on the road this season.
He also has a nice matchup on tap against a Giants offense that struggles with the strikeout. San Fran's 24.9% K% against right-handers this season is the fourth-highest mark in baseball while their 26.7% K% on the road is the third-highest mark in baseball.
Nola's sporting some nice value with the over at plus-money odds this evening.
Touki Toussaint over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-125, DraftKings sportsbook)
The Mariners will keep charging toward the postseason tonight in Chicago as they take on the White Sox and right-hander Touki Toussaint.
The former Braves hurler has been decent with a 4.47 ERA in eight starts and 12 appearances on the season but he also sports some concerning peripherals. Namely, Toussaint's 5.32 SIERA is far worse than his ERA while he has struggled mightily with control, as per his bloated 16.7% BB% on the campaign.
The 27-year-old has allowed at least three earned runs in each of his last three starts as he's seeing some of that regression kick in. He has also walked 14 batters in that time.
The Mariners boast a solid offense that sits 16th with a .317 wOBA versus righties on the season but they're also tied for eighth with a .325 mark on the road. Their 106 wRC+ off righties this season sits 6% above the league average.
Look for more regression to take place for Toussaint tonight in the Windy City.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Kerry Carpenter over 1.5 total bases (+140, DraftKings sportsbook)
We're getting a fantastic price here on the white-hot Kerry Carpenter who continues to fly under the radar.
The 25-year-old launched a homer for the second consecutive game on Sunday while he now has six long balls, along with a double, over his last nine contests. He will take on a right-hander in the Cubs' Javier Assad this evening while he's hitting .290 with a .264 isolated power and an .897 OPS off right-handed pitching this season.
As for Assad, he owns a 3.11 ERA on the season but also a 4.81 SIERA and a small 18.1% K% on the campaign across 66 2/3 innings between the rotation and bullpen. Assad ranks in the league's 33rd percentile in xwOBA against and 24th in xBA against.
It sure looks like a nice opportunity for Carpenter to stay hot against the Cubs.
Manny Machado over 1.5 total bases (+125, DraftKings sportsbook)
It hasn't been a banner season for Manny Machado but the opportunity is ripe tonight against the Marlins and left-hander Ryan Weathers.
Weathers has seen struggled mightily again this season. Only 23, the southpaw sports a 6.89 ERA on the season while his 6.18 FIP, 5.40 SIERA, and tiny 6% K-BB% all suggest he has indeed pitched quite poorly. He has also been hit hard by both lefties and righties, yielding a .925 OPS to right-handed hitters such as Machado.
As for Machado, while he has been better following a low start to his season, he has mashed lefties for much of the campaign. The veteran is hitting .337 with a .968 OPS versus lefties this season while the latter elevates to 1.026 at home versus southpaws.
Machado has just two hits -- both homers -- over his last five games but he has a nice opportunity to get back on track against a weak left-hander in this one tonight.
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