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We have an 8-game MLB schedule going down this Monday evening, meaning it's officially time to get our week started on the right note!
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In this article, I'll be providing my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Monday, June 5, 2023. Without any further adieu, let's take a look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Aaron Nola to record a win (-110, DraftKings sportsbook)
The Philadelphia Phillies and right-hander Aaron Nola welcome the slumping Detroit Tigers to town to open up a series in the City of Brotherly Love on Monday. In doing so, Nola should be able to come out on the right side of the decision in this one.
Nola enters this one sporting a 4.70 ERA on the season along with a 4.21 SIERA and a 15.6% K-BB% across 12 starts. He's an even 4-4 in that time but doesn't have much of an excuse to not keep this Tigers lineup at bay.
The Tigers scored all of three runs in getting swept by the White Sox over the weekend as they deal with a plethora of injuries to their offense. It's an offense that ranks 28th against right-handed pitching with a .285 wOBA, a figure that took a notable hit over the weekend.
At the same time, N0la should get plenty of run support as the Phils take on left-hander Joey Wentz. Wentz owns a 7.28 ERA on the campaign and, while his 4.78 SIERA suggests positive regression on the horizon, he has been wildly inconsistent this season.
Add it up and there's a nice opportunity for Nola to grab his fifth win at home where he owns a far better 3.86 ERA in 25 2/3 innings on the season.
Braxton Garrett to record a win (+165, DraftKings sportsbook)
Let's take a swing at some big-time value here with Braxton Garrett grabbing the win over the visiting Kansas City Royals Monday night.
The lowly Royals enter this one sporting a .289 wOBA on the season against right-handed pitching, good for a share of 26th in the big leagues. Their 6.8% BB% off of righties is tied for 28th and should help Garrett get deep enough to qualify for the win.
As for his part, Garrett owns a 4.22 ERA on the season but that figure is skewed by his 11-run blowup against the Braves back on May 3. He sports a tidy 3.48 SIERA and 18.5% K-BB% in 53 1/3 innings, even if he has just one win in 10 starts (11 appearances) on the campaign.
The right-hander has surrendered a total of four earned runs over his last four starts. Only twice in 10 starts has he surrendered more than two earned runs while he has pitched at least five innings in five straight outings. The Royals' light-hitting offense and tiny walk rate should keep Garrett's pitch count in check.
I don't mind the over 5.5 strikeouts (-105) for Garrett tonight, either, as the Royals boast a bloated, 26th-ranked 24.9% K% against righties this season. However, if we want to aim higher, I'll look for Garrett to keep their bats in check and walk away with a win at big-time odds tonight.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Nick Castellanos over 1.5 total bases (-115, DraftKings sportsbook)
Nick Castellanos endured a down 2022 season but has bounced back in a big way so far in the 2023 campaign.
The veteran is hitting .316 with seven homers and an .858 OPS across 59 appearances this season. His splits are just about dead-even on the season but Castellanos has long been a superior bat versus left-handed pitching as he's a career .302 hitter with an .871 OPS against southpaws versus a .271 average and .782 OPS against righties.
The former Tiger is also red-hot at the plate. He's collected two three-hit efforts and one four-hit effort over his last four games, collecting a total of 11 hits over his last 19 trips to the plate. He has two homers and a double in that time.
Out of the projected two-hole, Castellanos should get five trips to the plate in this one which should easily allow him to collect at least two total bases in this one tonight.
Jake Fraley over 1.5 total bases (+125, DraftKings sportsbook)
Here we have a left-handed hitter in Jake Fraley who rakes right-handed pitching. As it turns out, he takes on right-hander Julio Teheran in the hitter-friendly confines of Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati.
One of the friendly venues for a left-handed hitter in all of baseball, GABP gives Fraley a big boost off the hop. He very rarely sees left-handed pitching but has raked right-handers for a .292 average, .194 isolated power, and an .868 OPS on the season. He's made 165 trips to the plate against righties versus just 26 against lefties but all seven of his homers and seven of his eight doubles on the season have come at the expense of a right-handed pitcher.
Like Castellanos, Fraley is seeing the ball well at the moment, In fact, he's homered in back-to-back games entering this one with five hits over his last three contests, or 11 total bases over that same time.
Teheran has been very good with a 0.82 ERA in two starts for the Brewers, but his 5.51 SIERA in that small sample is screaming regression in short order. He has just five punchouts in 11 innings and should get into trouble in this one as he fails to miss bats.
We're aiming at fantastic value here in a matchup that greatly favors the left-handed-hitting Fraley.
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