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What a great day of baseball! Three games were decided by walk-offs, the Dodgers came back from six down, and the Orioles are now over .500; hopefully, today can bring us even more entertainment.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Tuesday, July 12, 2022, for the 13-game 12:10 PM EST slate. Personally, my approach stems a bit more on the analytical side; I utilize a projection model I created utilizing projections from THE BAT X and Fangraphs Depth Charts to estimate the true talent of each lineup and pitching staff, adjusting for the team's pitcher. Based on the expected run differential each team is supposed to have in a game, we can compare this to see how much a team should theoretically win by, which allows us to translate that into a win probability, which leads to an adjusted money-line. For game totals, the implied runs scored and runs allowed for each team (with today's starting pitcher) are used, along with Baseball Savant park factors. This is not the "end all be all," but having some objective system to identify potential sources of value can be extremely helpful!
Today, we will be looking at the best side and total bets for today's slate. For a Thursday, 13 games is a relatively strong slate, especially since there are plenty of tight matchups ahead; Corbin Burnes vs Carlos Rodon is about as elite of a pitching matchup as you can get. What sides/totals should you have your eye on? Let's dive right into today's action!
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MLB Betting Projection Model Results
*NOTE: Negative Diff indicates that the home team is projected to win, and vice versa.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Reds @ Yankees
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: NYY -200
CIN: Luis Castillo | NYY: Nestor Cortes
On the surface, 58 games separate the Yankees (62-26) and Reds (33-55), making this an easy win for the Yankees, right? Not quite. In fact, through the first two games of this series, the run differential has been exactly zero – each team winning by one run – and when it's all said and done, don't discount the Reds being the team that comes out on top.
For all we know, this could be Luis Castillo's final start with the Reds, and for good reason – he's quite the coveted trade target. After being delayed for a month with a shoulder injury, the 29-year-old didn't quite have his usual velocity over his first two starts leading to diminished performance. As of May 20th, he exceeded 96 MPH with his average fastball velocity, and the results have been splendid: 3.36 SIERA and 18.9% K-BB.
With a fastball with the highest whiff rate (40.8%) among qualified starting pitchers, Castillo has a weapon that is the main reason for his time. As the season goes on, he's starting to realize that:
Is it a coincidence that Castillo (2.68 SIERA, 25.3% K-BB) has been dominant in those three starts where his fastball has clearly taken over as his superior pitch? In my opinion, no. This is just another case of a talented pitcher optimizing his arsenal in a way that un-taps his true potential; he's becoming a true ace that can succeed at a high level regardless of the opponent. That's what we should be expecting here.
Meanwhile, it's been a tremendous season for Yankees starter Nestor Cortes, who parlayed his strong start to the season into his first All-Star Game appearance. That being said, he has struggled (4.38 SIERA) in his past six starts, while the Reds (100 wRC+) have performed better against lefties this year. In what should be a low-scoring game, his projected 1.54 HR/9 from Fangraphs Depth Charts projections is notable, while New York's bullpen is certainly overworked; Clay Holmes and Michael King have pitched back-to-back games, so neither will likely be available here. What's most important here, though, is that Cincinnati has the more reliable pitcher at the moment, and is being priced as a substantial underdog. It's time to be on upset alert!
Pick: Cincinnati Moneyline (+177), WynnBet Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Padres @ Rockies
O/U: 11.5 | Moneyline: SD -135
SD: Blake Snell | COL: Kyle Freeland
Can the Padres ever win a series against the Rockies? Dating back to June of last year, San Diego is 6-17 over their past 23 games against Colorado, and now is trying to make sure they don't lose a four-game series here.
Yet, the ultimate winner of this game is not our focus. Rather, since picking the Reds to defeat the best team in baseball wasn't risky enough, we're going to try to take an under in Coors Field. See, overall, these two offenses have been below-average when it comes to wRC+, and the average game in Colorado has resulted in just 10.96 runs being scored per game. Remember, that's with teams like the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, and Braves playing series in Coors Field this year; the Padres, who rank near the bottom of the league in barrel rate, are not close to that caliber of offense.
Meanwhile, San Diego is generally a lefty-heavy offense, with their platoon options (Jose Azocar and Aaron Nola) perhaps not adding as much value as whom they're replacing (Trent Grisham and Eric Hosmer). Rockies starter Kyle Freeland hasn't had a dominant season, but he limits walks (6.8% BB) and has historically been successful inducing ground balls (49% career GB). He doesn't strike out many batters, but considering the lack of impact (fifth-lowest hard-hit rate) San Diego has with their batted balls, that may not be an issue.
The best way to overcome Coors Field? Limit the number of times a batter makes contact. Fortunately, that's been no issue for Blake Snell as of late; he's struck out 23 batters in his past 11 innings, despite facing two strong offenses in the Dodgers and Giants. Yet, there's more to this. See, his slider and curveball have been fantastic this season, combining for an elite 48.8% whiff rate and .193 expected weighted on-base average allowed (xwOBA), while his changeup has historically been an issue for him. After experimenting with said changeup early on this season, he's once again put it in timeout:
This is similar to a change Snell made in the second half of last year, which led to similar results. This tweak is likely here to stay, and if so, he should continue to perform at a very high level. 11.5 runs is a very large total, and with the combination of Snell's magnificence and the struggles of both offenses, it's hard to see it being exceeded here. Consider this a risk worth taking.
Pick: San Diego Colorado Under 11.5 (-105), BetMGM Sportsbook
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week! For more baseball content, you can follow me at @talkmvp.
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