Flag Hunting: PGA Golf Betting Picks - Rocket Mortgage Classic

If you enjoyed the record-low scores on display at the Travelers last week, the PGA Tour has just the event for you in the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Winning scores have crested (-23) in three of the four iterations here in Detroit, and with recent rainstorms softening the course up even more, early rumblings from the grounds have indicated we could be seeing numbers that rival Kapalua’s record-breaking week in 2022.

We’ve seen everything from consensus 6-1 favorites to 300-1 longshots win in Detroit over the four-year history of this event, and the 2023 version of the Rocket Mortgage Classic features the best field it’s had since the Post-COVID rendition of 2020. 10 of the world's Top 30 are in attendance, as well as three of the most promising youngsters in the game (Ludvig Aberg, Sam Bennett, and Gordon Sargent). 

From three former top amateurs to a bevy of big names looking to kickstart their season ahead of the home stretch, plenty is on the line in Detroit this week. Here's everything you need to know about the Rocket Mortgage Classic from Detroit Golf Club!

The Golf Course

Detroit Golf Club - 7,370-yard, Par 72

The theme this week revolves around simplicity for these Touring pros, and perhaps nothing better exemplifies the straightforward nature of Detroit GC than the “test” it provides off the tee. 

Detroit GC features the tenth widest fairways on the PGA Tour (made only wider by softer turf conditions), as well as the seventh lowest missed fairway penalty and the second lowest penalty fraction. It is the fourth easiest course on Tour to gain strokes off-the-tee, and we’ve routinely seen long hitters take full advantage of these forgiving confines. 

Bryson DeChambeau won here in 2020 on the back of his newfound length (recording the third-best driving week of his career in the process), and the SG: OTT splits last year tell a similar story: as Chris Gotterup, Tony Finau, Cameron Young, Wyndham Clark, and Taylor Pendrith were all able to lap the field off-the-tee with a driver-heavy, bomb-and-gouge approach. 

It is clear that Detroit GC has no real answer to the Tour’s preeminent bombers, and the softer conditions expected this week should only further bolster the importance of carry distance. With its abundance of short Par 4’s and historical reliance on putting, Detroit GC is far from the bombers-only archetype we see out of courses like Bay HIll or Torrey Pines, but players with elite length have proven they can unlock a level of upside that’s completely unattainable to players relying entirely on their games from inside 150 yards.

As I’ve just mentioned in the previous section, Detroit GC features a ton of wedge opportunities around its layout. Five of the ten par fours this week measure under 425 yards, and two par 3’s will only require a short iron into the green. Over 50% of approach shots have come from inside of 150 yards historically, and how receptive I expect the greens to be this week, proper distance and spin control with your wedges will be paramount in creating birdie opportunities. 

Long irons will come into play for players trying to reach Detroit’s four Par 5’s in two shots, as well as the other two Par 3’s measuring 207 and 233 yards respectively. But even with these holes, the ratio of approaches from 200 yards plus is still well under Tour Average. I’d be more inclined to look at players that have routinely taken advantage of Par 5’s over the course of the year rather than weighing overall long-iron play. If you’re looking to deep dive outside of the general approach metrics, wedges are still king around Detroit GC. I’ll be looking at Proximity from <150 yards.

Similar to long-iron play, short-game acumen only projects to be a significant factor for players trying to get up-and-down for birdie on one of the par 5s. The GIR % at Detroit GC sits well over 70% (and should only get higher with softer greens), so I see no reason to look deeply into general short-game metrics. Par 5 scoring will encompass everything I need in that department. 

And finally, we move to putting - which will undoubtedly be the key factor in determining this week's winner. Detroit GC hasn’t exactly been the friendliest of confines for our favorite #TeamNoPutt All-Stars. In fact, nobody in the four-year history of this event has managed to finish better than 10th whilst losing strokes on the greens, and top five finishers in this event have gained nearly 5 shots putting on average. 

You will have to putt well to win, and particularly so on a week like this where some are projecting winning scores approaching 30-under par. Admittedly, the softer conditions will take some of the sting out of Donald Ross’s trademarked undulation, but be wary of players that seem uncomfortable with the flat stick early. The breakneck pace set by the front-runners will not give you much time to sort out these greens.

In terms of comps to these green complexes, TPC River Highlands is the only other regular Tour stop that features similar agronomy on its greens (bentgrass blended with an east-coast Poa annua). However, we’ve seen two Major venues in the last four years (Brookline and Bethpage Black), with this same setup. In general though, the greens at Detroit GC fall much more favorably into the bucket of your traditional northeastern bentgrass courses - Oakdale, Oak Hill being the two most recent, and Deere Run, Twin Cities, and Keene Trace being some other comps with large historical sample sizes. This assortment of courses would be my first look when attempting to identify those with the best chance rolling it well this week. 

Scouting the Routing

For those looking to dabble in the live market this week, it will be imperative to contextualize a player’s position on the leaderboard alongside where he is on the golf course and which holes he still has left to play. 

As you’d expect from a tournament with an average winning score of (-23), Detroit GC doesn’t exactly present many pitfalls for the world’s best. Only two holes on the entire course play more than a tenth of a stroke under par, and only four holes feature Bogey or Worse rates over 15%. 

The Par 3 11th and the Par 4 18th are the only holes on the property that even resemble Bogey-Avoidance opportunities, but with scoring averages of just 3.13 and 4.11 respectively, it’s difficult to label them as true red flags to be incredibly weary of. Instead, I’ll be more focused on stretches of holes that provide the best chance for members of the chase pack to rack up multiple birdies in quick succession. 

Players starting on the front side will be treated to three of the six easiest holes on the golf course right away: as the 1st, 3rd, and 4th holes all feature birdie or better rates over 25% and play to a cumulative scoring average of (-0.58). If you’re interested in a player starting on Hole 1, it will be imperative to keep a close eye on him early in the round, as his pre-round number could be quickly slashed if he’s able to take advantage of Donald Ross’s gentle handshake on offer in Detroit.

Following the fourth hole, the par-five 7th and par-four 8th offer birdie rates of 43 and 21% respectively, and the stretch from 13-17 features two Par 5’s and three other wedge opportunities - playing to a scoring average of (-0.92). 

If anything, afternoon starters on the back nine could represent the best chance we have to catch value in the live market. Not only will they be buried on the leaderboard by the morning wave, but they’ll also be opening with a three-hole stretch featuring two of the six most difficult holes on the course. Whether it’s on Thursday or Friday, don’t be too weary of a player getting off to an even-par start early on the back nine (particularly if the underlying metrics still look strong). Creating birdie chances will only get easier as they walk up to the 13th tee.

I’d also caution those that have found success adding players early on Saturday or Sunday before the leaders have even teed off. At a golf course like this where pars and birdies will make up a predominant amount of the scoring, it’s difficult to expect the lead pack to stay in neutral long enough to allow an early starter to create legitimate win equity. The last place you want to be on a course like this is in the clubhouse. You’ll often find that a player finishing up around the lead while the leaders still have nine holes to play will find themselves well out of contention by day's end.

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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

The Betting Card

Rickie Fowler (14-1)

No, your eyes do not deceive you. Rickie Fowler is a co-favorite on the PGA Tour, and by my numbers, the argument can be made that he’s a little undervalued at 14-1. Rickie has sneakily become one of the longest hitters on the PGA Tour - ranking 15th in this field in Carry Distance for the 2023 season, but it has been the return of Fowler’s historical calling cards that have provided the catalyst for this sudden surge in form. 

The putter has been as reliable as we’ve seen since Rickie was a Top 10 player in the world, and the iron game has been nothing short of a call back to his historic run through 2014-15. Fowler has lost strokes on Approach just once in the 2023 season (18 starts), and currently ranks 2nd in this field in SG: APP and 9th in Birdie Chances Created. Nobody has a better Birdie or Better Percentage than over the last three months, and in an event where the winning score projects to break the 25-under barrier, Fowler’s the only player teeing it up to rate inside the Top 20 in every one of my key metrics.

The only question that remains with Fowler is the true totality of his winning prospects. He’s found himself in the mix heading into the last two Sundays on the PGA Tour, but left a lot to be desired with his performances on the final day. The good news this week is there won’t be a Rory, Scottie, Rahm, or even Patrick Cantlay standing in his way, and if there was ever a golf course to close the deal on, it would be one with wide fairways, soft greens, and plenty of scoring chances. We’ve seen enough in 2023 to know the potential is there. You couldn’t draw up a better spot for Fowler’s return to the winner’s circle.

Justin Thomas (20-1)

Considering he was listed at 75-1 pre-tournament, it doesn’t seem as if Justin Thomas’s 9th-place finish at the Travelers Championship has gone sufficiently reported. JT had his best iron week of the 2023 campaign last week in Connecticut (+7.2 SG: APP), and if it weren’t for a frustrating opening round of even-par 70, we could have dared to dream of cashing a Justin Thomas outright at a once in a lifetime number. 

The 20-1 price tag this week does seem a bit jarring by comparison, but in my opinion, Detroit Golf Club presents JT with an even better course fit than River Highlands did last week. Over 50% of approach shots this week will be coming from inside of 150 yards. Fairways are not only a lot more generous than they were in Connecticut, but the penalty for wayward misses is drastically reduced as well. Soft conditions will require players to pour on a deluge of birdies to stay relevant, and four Par 5’s will place extra emphasis on short-game acumen. 

Remind you of anyone? 

Let’s not forget that before Justin Thomas became a PLAYERS Champion and a two-time winner of the PGA Championship, these were the exact types of setups he thrived on. Kapalua, Kuala Lumpur, Nine Bridges, Medinah, all placed great emphasis on wedge play, Par 5 scoring, and featured winning scores of -20 to -25. 

There is a non-zero chance that last week ends up being an aberration in the most disappointing season Justin Thomas has had in nearly a decade on Tour, but if something really did click with the game at Travelers, 20-1 is an obscene number for one of the PGA Tour’s preeminent microwaves. In a field devoid of reliable depth, I am completely comfortable taking that risk. 

Chez Reavie (140-1)

He couldn’t quite close the deal in the final group at River Highlands last week, but there’s absolutely no reason we should be seeing Chez Reavie priced in the triple digits in this field. Chez has not only found his traditionally strong iron play over his last two starts, but the putter has been as hot as we’ve ever seen from the 15-year vet. Reavie hasn’t lost strokes on the greens since the PLAYERS Championship in March, and currently ranks second in this field in SG: Putting per round over the last three months. 

That kind of confidence is particularly scary in a player rates out 7th in SG: APP and 6th in Birdie Chances Created. Reavie has thrived on two soft, wedge-intensive courses at Oakdale and River Highlands over the last two weeks, and although bombers have populated the top of many historical leaderboards in Detroit, it hasn’t stopped players like Kevin Kisner, Troy Merritt, or Ryan Armour from scoring top fives on the back of elite wedge play and a hot putter. If that’s the direction the leaderboard goes this week, Reavie is a prime candidate to carry that momentum forward.

Carson Young (150-1)

In very much the same mold as Reavie, Carson Young has put together a fantastic stretch of golf over the last three months. Young hasn’t lost strokes putting in eight starts, and outside of a brutal two days at the U.S. Open, he hasn’t lost strokes on Approach in seven straight. He currently rates 4th in SG: Putting per round, 5th in Birdie or Better Percentage, and 20th in Par 5 scoring.

All four of his career top 15s have come in events that reached a winning score of at least (-20), and the iron play got right back on track at River Highlands last week - registering the second-best Approach week of his season. The results are pointing to Carson being one of the dark horses for Rookie of the year, and a weaker field birdie-fest in Detroit could be just the stage he needs to introduce himself to the general golfing public.

 Best of luck guys, and Happy Hunting!

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