Flag Hunting: PGA Betting Picks - Wells Fargo Championship

With my Masters hangover (and my penultimate semester of grad school), finally in the rearview mirror, we can officially turn our attention to the road to the year's second Major! From the preliminary reports I've seen from on-site, players should expect another long, brutally difficult test at Oak Hill for the 2023 PGA Championship.

Those foreboding reports only further enhance the importance in my eyes of this week's event. As Quail Hollow Club plans to host its second iteration of the PGA Championship in 2025, and presents a lot of the same challenges we see on a yearly basis at these Major Championship sites.

With the Byron Nelson birdie-fest on schedule for next week, this will be the final opportunity we'll get as golf fans to analyze the prospects of some of Rochester's top contenders at a golf course worthy of the same prize.

The Golf Course

It is said that golf is played by two types of people: artists and engineers.

In the last few elevated events on Tour, we’ve seen golf courses in Hilton Head and Augusta that have historically played into the hands of golf’s greatest artists. Shot-shaping, imagination, and short-game prowess have been at the forefront of our handicapping processes, and those who lacked the necessary creativity have found themselves befuddled by these classical designs.

The Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina, however, falls very much on the opposite side of the spectrum. While Augusta National and Harbour Town have lauded shot-shaping artistry and wizardry around the greens, the opposing links of Quail Hollow ask a much different question: do you have the physical tools to endure a constant barrage of body blows in the shape of 490-yard Par 4s? And do you possess a repeatable method of creating birdie chances from 175 yards and beyond?

This is a golf course for the engineers of the professional ranks. More simply put, Quail Hollow doesn’t require every shot in the bag to find success, but rather, a reliable set of certain shots that will be asked of you time and time again. More akin to a Torrey Pines or a Bay Hill, there’s a reason that even the most casual of golf fans could pick out our past champions list this week out of a lineup. The best players in the world all tend to have consistent answers to questions asked by Par 4’s that look like Par 5’s to most of us weekend warriors. 

Playing as a Par 71 at over 7,500 yards, Quail Hollow is the longest par-adjusted course we see on the PGA Tour. 12 of the 18 holes on property measure over 450 yards, and three of the four Par 3’s measure over 190. As such, it should be no surprise that total driving and long iron play have been keystones to success around here.

With nine of eleven par 4’s measuring over 450 yards and three Par 5’s all tipping out over 550, players won’t have nearly the amount of options accessible to them off the tee as we saw at Harbour Town a few weeks ago. I’d expect driver off almost every tee box here, and given the recent rainfall Charlotte has received in the past few weeks (as well as a few pop-up showers expected this weekend), softer fairways will only further emphasize the need for distance.

Looking back at some of the past leaderboards we’ve seen in Charlotte, it becomes abundantly clear how important elite driving is at Quail Hollow. The past champions list speaks for itself (Rory McIlroy, Max Homa, Jason Day, Justin Thomas in the last four trips made here), but we’ve also seen the likes of Keith Mitchell, Luke List, Gary Woodland, and Bryson DeChambeau register multiple Top 10s over the last three years. None of whom would be touted as the most well-rounded players on the PGA Tour at the time, but they all do share one very key attribute with the world’s best: speed. 

Notably, we’ve also seen players like Joel Dahmen, Abe Ancer, and Jason Dufner find repeated success around Quail Hollow despite being below average in distance off the tee. These three are certainly not the prototype you’d first think of at a 7,500-yard golf course, but they’re far from poor drivers of the golf ball. Each of the three managed to use elite driving accuracy to keep pace, and let their elite long-iron play do the heavy lifting. If you’re looking at a player outside of the Top 30 in driving distance this week, these are exactly the types of profiles you should be looking for. 

Speaking of long-irons, Quail Hollow will be asking a lot of those clubs this week. Nearly ⅓ of historical approach shots have come from over 200 yards, and over 53% have come from over 175. The scorecard isn’t always the best indicator of how a course will play, but in this instance, the 7500 yards tell a consistent story: don’t expect many wedge shots into these greens this week. 

As you’d expect with so many long irons in hand, Quail Hollow features an average GIR % of just 61.3%. As such, short game will be a bigger factor here than what we saw in Mexico last week or what I expect at Byron Nelson next week. However, Quail Hollow doesn’t exactly possess the most difficult green complexes to navigate: ranking slightly below average in overall ARG difficulty, and easier than average from both the greenside bunkers and greenside rough. Short game/Bogey Avoidance are both great assets to have when the winning score projects to be (-10 to -12), but I’d consider it more of a bonus than a necessity when judging a player's overall profile.

And finally, the green complexes, which at least the ninth time this year will feature a bermuda grass overseeded with poa trivialis. Quail’s greens are notoriously some of the faster surfaces we get all year, so I’ll be weighing long-term competency on faster green complexes in addition to the recent putting splits we’ve seen in the Desert/Southeastern stops with similar agronomy. 

Scouting the Routing

For those looking to dabble in the live market this week, it will be important to contextualize a player’s position on the leaderboard alongside the holes he still has left to play. Fortunately for us, Quail Hollow makes a pretty clear distinction between birdie opportunities and holes where you can lap the field by treading water.

Only five holes at Quail Hollow historically play under par, and once again, the scorecard tells us no tales in regards to which ones meet those criteria. The three Par 5’s (5,10, and 15), all carry birdie or better rates over 33%, and two short Par 4’s (8 and 14) play a combined (0.43) under par historically - with birdie or better rates of 27 and 35% respectively.

Outside of those five holes, there aren’t a ton of scoring opportunities to look forward to around Quail, as the remaining 13 holes play a combined 2.15 shots over par and exactly zero of them feature birdie rates over 13%.

In particular, the holes to really be feared are 1, 6, 11, 16, 17, and 18. All of which carry a stroke average of at least 0.2 shots above par, with bogey or worse rates over 25%. That doesn’t even include holes like 3, 9, 12, and 13, with bogey or worse rates over 20% and a mean stroke average of +0.15. 

Simply put, there aren’t exactly many breather holes around Quail Hollow this week. Either you’re stepping up to a potential eagle opportunity at one of the Par 5’s or drivable Par 4s, or you’re looking to hold on for dear life in a sea of 480-yard Par 4's and Par 3's with 

I believe Par 5 scoring and Bogey Avoidance are of equal importance this week, as although there are only 3 Par 5’s on the course, they represent such important scoring opportunities over the course of the round. Taking advantage of the "gimmes" available to you will be imperative, as anyone forced to make up ground elsewhere is in for some tough sledding.

And finally, no Quail Hollow analysis would be complete without discussing the "Green Mile." A three-hole stretch from 16-18 that routinely ranks as one of the most difficult finishes on the PGA Tour. Combined, the three holes play to a stroke average of +0.8, and for those looking to add players in the live market, be sure to proceed with extreme caution if your intended target hasn't reached the 16th tee. Many dreams have been dashed within those 1200 yards.

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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

The Betting Card

Xander Schauffele (18-1): With Tony Finau parlaying his consistently elite iron play into a win last week, it should give a lot of hope to the likes of Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, and Jordan Spieth: all of whom have seen similarly great ball-striking splits to start the year, but haven’t quite gotten the rest of the game to cooperate well enough to find the winners circle.

Of that list, Xander presents not only the best value on the betting board, but also the best track record at these long, difficult setups. Schauffele is #1 in SG: Total on courses over  7400 yards since 2020, and his rap sheet at Major Championships should tell you everything you need to know about his ability to navigate difficult scoring conditions.

Schauffele also rates out as the 3rd best player in this field in proximity from 200 yards-plus, he’s on record saying the driver has turned a corner from its early season slump, and only the aforementioned Finau has outperformed Xander on a per-round basis with his irons in 2023. Xander is primed for a big one, and at 18-1, his profile is one I cannot pass on this week.

Viktor Hovland (20-1): Although Viktor’s preliminary victories have come at resort course birdie parties, Hovland is far from a lost cause at these long, difficult venues: ranking #1 in SG: Total, SG: T2G, SG: OTT, and SG: BS on golf courses >7400 yards since 2020. Looking back through his recent results, there really isn’t a Quail Hollow comp course that Hovland hasn’t found his way into the mix at over the course of his 3.5-year career:

- 2nd and 10th in his last two starts at Bay Hill

- 4th, 5th, 20th in 3 starts at Riviera

- 2nd at Torrey (2021)

- 3rd at Muirfield Village (2020)

- 3rd here at Quail Hollow in 2021

With his combination of elite total Driving, stellar long-iron play, and a drastically improved putter, it seems like just a matter of time before Hovland secures a victory that pushes him into a new stratosphere in professional golf. He’s gained an average of 7.3 strokes ball-striking over his last six starts, and a venue like Quail Hollow will only further exemplify those elite traits. Look for him to give it another great run this week.

Collin Morikawa (28-1): Seeing as how I’ll be at Quail for at least two of the four days, I was going to do everything I could to find a spot for my main man on this week’s card. 28-1 made it an incredibly easy decision, and I think Quail is a really underrated spot for Collin’s game. 

Although he doesn’t possess the explosive speed as many of his contemporaries, his lack of distance hasn’t stopped Collin from taking advantage of some of the biggest ballparks on Tour (3rd in SG Total and 8th in SG: OTT on courses >7400 yds since 2020). He notably scored two of his better results on the year at Torrey Pines and Riviera, and his Major Championship track record is unmatched by anyone in his age bracket.  

Morikawa is the only player in this field to rate inside the Top 10 in each of my key proximity ranges (150-175, 175-200, 200+), and although the past champions list might not be a one-to-one match to Collin’s skillset, the last few T2G leaders at Quail Hollow cast a very similar profile to the LA native (Francesco Molinari, Jason Dufner, Henrik Stenson, Abe Ancer, Russell Knox, Joel Dahmen, etc).

Sneakily the third-best ball-striker in this field since the start of the year, don’t let the 7500 yards on the scorecard deter you. Morikawa is as dangerous around a venue like this as he is anywhere else.

Sungjae Im (28-1): We haven’t quite gotten a late Sunday scare from Sungjae in 2023, but he’s sneakily putting together one of the better all-around seasons on Tour right now. Sungjae ranks 2nd (behind just Tony Finau in this field), in overall T2G play, and has put together a run of 4 Top 7s and 8 T25s in his last 10 starts.

Like Collin, Sungjae uses his elite accuracy to make up for his lack of pure speed off the tee, and has found a ton of success on comparable golf courses in recent years: finishing 4th and 6th at the Farmers over his last two starts, registering two 3rds and no finish worse than 21st in five starts at Bay Hill, a 10th at Memorial last year, and a stellar early-career Masters track record. 

He’s come close in North Carolina before (finishing 2nd at last year's Wyndham Championship), and it's no surprise that the recent Georgia resident has found continued success in the Southeast: legitimately becoming one of the better Bermuda putters on Tour in the process. 28-1 is just too generous a price to pass on a guy playing this well.

Best of luck guys, and Happy Hunting!

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