Flag Hunting: PGA Betting Picks - RBC Heritage

Though the first Major of the year has come and gone, the PGA Tour leaves no rest for the weary as we move into the sixth elevated event of the season from Harbour Town Golf Links.

Outside of Rory McIlroy, Will Zalatoris (get well soon), and Jason Day, every marquee name in the world of golf has made his way to Hilton Head Island this week, and there is a much different test in store compared to the traditional venues that host the world’s best. 

It's as close to a throwback week as we'll ever get on the PGA Tour, and for golf junkies like me who are constantly wondering what a modern player would look like airdropped into the 1960s, this is about as comparable of a test as we're going to find. Welcome to Harbour Town Golf Links for the 2023 RBC Heritage.

The Golf Course

I’ve mentioned quite often in my write-ups at places like Sea Island, Sedgefield, Mayakoba, Wai’alae, etc. that “Short, positional, Bermudagrass Par 70s” make up a unique sub-genre on the PGA Tour schedule. Pete Dye’s Harbour Town might be the purest example of the tests these types of courses provide, and to me, it might even surpass TPC Sawgrass in conveying Dye’s overarching design philosophy.

Unlike the Bay Hills, Torrey Pines, and Augusta Nationals of the world, Harbour Town isn’t a test of brute strength and ball speeds in the mid-180s. It’s positional and claustrophobic, players will be forced to shape the ball both ways off the tee, and there will be a multitude of options available from a course strategy perspective. It isn’t often that the best players in the world congregate at a golf course that measures under 7200 yards, and I look forward to watching these guys tackle a venue that asks so many unique questions.

You’ll see everything from fairway woods to driving irons off the tee here at Harbour Town, and as such, I typically wouldn’t place a great deal of emphasis on overall driving. When your past champions list includes names like C.T. Pan, Wesley Bryan, and Webb Simpson (none of whom are particularly prodigious drivers of the ball), it’s quite clear that Harbour Town can be conquered without the use of the heavy artillery that is often the clear differentiating factor for the world’s best.

However, there is one thing that gives me a little pause compared to a traditional year at Harbour Town: the newly grown rough. Early reports have indicated that the rough has grown up to ~2.5 inches, which would be over triple its traditional length. Admittedly, 2.5” ryegrass isn’t exactly the most penal hazard ever conceived, but it could certainly be tricky enough to further incentivize players to club down and keep the ball in the short grass.

From a modeling standpoint, I’ll be employing a similar approach to driving statistics as I use at many of the comp. courses laid out earlier. Because club-down opportunities are so prevalent around Harbour Town, it’s all but useless to use general driving stats from some of the bigger ballparks we’ve seen recently.

Instead, I’ll be using a more specialized model which includes a mixture of Good Drive %, Fairways Gained, and SG: OTT at courses like Colonial, Sedgefield, Sea Island, and Harbour Town. If a player has been shown to have repeated success around these positional golf courses in the past, I have no doubts about his ability to tackle the challenges presented off the tee this week. 

By contrast, approach play will be my number one determining factor when projecting a player's prospects this week. Harbour Town features the smallest green complexes on the PGA Tour (3,100 sq. feet on average), and as such, players will have to be incredibly precise with their iron play to generate birdie opportunities. 

Every champion here since 2010 has finished inside the top twelve in either GIR % or Proximity to the hole, and five of the last six winners have finished inside the top eight in SG: APP. Whether you’re using a combination of these general approach stats, or narrowing down on some key proximity ranges (around two-thirds of historical approach shots have come from 125-200 yards at Harbour Town), iron play is undoubtedly the most important skill to possess around these links. 

With such small green complexes and a historical GIR % of just 58%, you’d typically expect around-the-green play to jump up in statistical importance. But although scrambling opportunities will come thick and fast around Harbour Town, these greens are some of the easiest to navigate on the PGA Tour. 

Harbour Town ranked as the sixth easiest course on Tour to get the ball up and down from the fairway last year, and third easiest in getting up and down from the rough. We’ve seen past champions like Stewart Cink employ putter from off of these greens, and unlike Augusta National, this course doesn’t present the type of around-the-green difficulties to truly separate the elite short games in the field. 

Of all of the scrambling stats at our disposal, I’d actually put “Sand Saves” at the top of the list of importance from a modeling standpoint. Pete Dye is rather notorious for the grandiose bunkering on his golf courses, and while Harbour Town isn’t nearly as heavily bunkered as a TPC Sawgrass or Whistling Straits, balls that do find the greenside sand will present a much bigger problem than missed greens in the fairway or rough.

As far as the putting surfaces themselves, you can essentially copy and paste what I’ve said in my Valero, Match Play, PLAYERS, and Valspar articles. Harbour Town is in fact the seventh PGA Course in 2023 that features bermudagrass greens overseeded with Poa trivialis.

Given that these greens aren't particularly well known for their dynamic slopes and severe undulation, the test this week won't be decisively different from what we've seen at any of PGA West, TPC Scottsdale, TPC Sawgrass, Innisbrook, Austin CC, or TPC San Antonio. With all six of these venues having been played within the last two-three months, recent putting splits are about as applicable this week as you'll ever see on the PGA Tour.

Scouting the Routing

For those looking to dabble in the live market this week, it will be important to contextualize a player's position with both his spot on the leaderboard and which holes he still has left to play. Harbour Town doesn’t exactly possess a murderer’s row of potential traps and pitfalls, but it also doesn’t give up too many guaranteed birdies either.

9 of the 18 holes at Harbour Town have a scoring average within a tenth of a stroke of par, and only 3 holes on the course (8, 14, 18) are holes I would consider “Bogey Avoidance opportunities,” where a par on any one would cut the average first by two-tenths of a stroke.

Harbour Town only possesses three Par 5’s as well, with the 2nd and 5th carrying to lowest stroke average by far (relative to par). With birdie or better rates of 53 and 46% respectively, it is imperative for players to take advantage of these handouts. The last remaining Par 5 (15th), carries a lot more peril than the two on the front side: featuring a bogey or worse rate of 15% and a stroke average of 4.88. Certainly more of a birdie chance than your typical hole around Harbour Town, but nowhere near the gimmes you’ll be getting earlier in the round. 

With the two easiest holes on the golf course, as well as the driveable Par 4 ninth that yields birdies at a 27% clip, it’s clear that starters on the front nine in Rounds 1 and 2 will be much more likely to get off to a hot start than those starting on the inward half.

With over a full-stroke difference between the front-nine scoring average (-0.55) and the back-nine (+0.57), live bettors can take full advantage of players that have drifted on odds boards due to a poor start on the back-nine. Many bookmakers won’t be able to contextualize struggles on the harder half of the golf course, and as long as the underlying numbers still look promising, you can bet a quick turnaround is in order as a golfer makes the turn to Hole 1.

I will also point out that Harbour Town is one of the only elevated events where I’ll be considering golfers from 50-1 and deeper. When 18 of the World’s top 20 golfers turn up to an event, I’m typically much more likely to cap my card at four to five names underneath 40-1. 

However, given the lack of emphasis Harbour Town places on elite driving (a tool that is almost exclusively held by the world’s best), I believe many more players will be able to keep pace when they’re not getting outgunned by 20-30 yards off the tee.

More on that in the shortlist, however, let’s move on to the moves I’ve actually made pre-tournament, and how much money is truly left in the live-add piggy bank.

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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

The Betting Card

Cameron Young (25-1): In just 38 career starts on the PGA Tour, Cameron Young has already established himself as one of the preeminent ball-strikers in the game. While you would typically associate Cam’s prodigious power as more well-suited to a U.S. Open-style ballpark measuring 77 or 7800 yards, Young has continually proven his mettle on shorter golf courses in his short career: placing second at 7100-yard TPC Potomac, third at last years RBC Heritage, second again at Austin CC’s Match Play, and gaining nearly six shots ball-striking in two rounds around PGA West (another club-down Pete Dye course). 

Young also doesn’t get nearly enough credit for his elite iron play: ranking 11th in this field in SG: APP in 2023 and leading the field in Birdie Chances Created inside 15 feet. This stellar ball-striking has been further accentuated by recent gains with his most historically inconsistent weapon: the putter. 

Since a highly publicized switch of both caddy (Paul Tesori), and putting method (AimPoint express), Young has gained nearly a stroke per round on the greens at Augusta National and Austin Country Club. We’ve seen many recent examples of players breaking through shortly after each of these changes: most notably Scottie Scheffler adding Ted Scott to the bag and both Max Homa and Viktor Hovland crediting AimPoint with their recent strides on the greens. 

If these putting improvements are truly sustainable, it’s only a matter of time before the 25-year-old Wake Forest alum snatches that elusive breakthrough victory. I’m comfortable eating prices in the mid-20s all day until we see something to the contrary in his underlying statistics.

Viktor Hovland (30-1): I’ll be as quick to call Patrick Cantlay, Collin Morikawa, and Cameron Young “due” for a victory as anybody on the PGA Tour, but I can’t for the life of me figure out why Viktor Hovland isn’t being priced right alongside these three as an inevitable breakout candidate. 

Hovland comes into this week on the back of 7th, 3rd, and 10th place finishes in his last three stroke-play starts and now steps foot on a property that will further emphasize his elite iron play. With the way Cantlay’s currently putting and Morikawa/Young’s historic inconsistencies in that area, Hovland is far and away the one I’d trust most over a 10-foot putt. Hovland also ranks 2nd in my Postional Driving Model and gained 7.2 strokes ball-striking in his only previous trip to Harbour Town (2020). 

The argument can definitely be made that Harbour Town mitigates Viktor’s greatest weakness with its straightforward around-the-green complexes, and if this becomes a race to (-20) as we saw in 2020, Hovland is more than well equipped to pile on birdies in quick succession. 

Max Homa (40-1): Despite a final round 78 at Augusta National, Max was still able to log his best ever Masters finish (T43), but perhaps more importantly, he continued the torrid ball-striking he’s become known for, gaining 3.5 shots on Approach over the four days.

Now we head to a golf course that will give Max a lot more chances to be aggressive with scoring clubs in hand, and that has shown to be a dangerous proposition for the new-and-improved Homa. Max ranks 3rd in this field over his last 32 rounds in SG: Approach, 4th in the field in Birdies or Better Gained, and gained over nine strokes ball-striking in his only-ever appearance at the Heritage in 2020.

In my mind, Homa should still be considered the 5th best player on the planet, and only Jon Rahm can boast a more well-rounded skillset. With the game he’s shown over the last 18 months, there’s not a course on the planet where Max Homa should be priced at 40-1.

Sam Burns (40-1): Another head-scratching type of number here on the world No. 10, as positional, southeastern Bermuda courses have been the Louisianan’s specialty since he’s come on Tour.

With his Match Play victory three weeks ago at another Pete Dye course in Austin, Burns now has five total wins on the PGA Tour, and four of them have come at courses I’d label as direct comps to Harbour Town: (Innisbrook (2), Colonial, Austin CC). Burns also has positive history around Pete Dye’s PGA West and TPC Sawgrass, and like Homa, he’s coming in off of his best-ever Masters finish (T29), in which he gained nearly 5 shots ball-striking.

Given the extensive history of success we’ve already seen out of Sam on comp. courses, the recent surge in ball-striking form, and an elite putter that makes him an everpresent threat to take it deep, I’m not passing on a 40-1 for one of the hottest prospects in the game.

The Shortlist

With these four names on the betting card, we’ve officially used up ~75% of our weekly outright budget. Although I would be interested in adding another top name if he were to fall into the 30-1 range (Collin Morikawa, Patrick Cantlay, or Jordan Spieth in particular), I’m going to dedicate this portion of the article to players I would have no problem fitting onto the card at their current prices. Harbour Town has been quite friendly to longshots through the years, here are a few of my favorites from down the betting board:

Si Woo Kim (60-1): We've been riding the Si Woo wave at virtually every comparable venue to Harbour Town in 2023, why stop now? Although the baselines are not as reliable as the players at the top of the odds board, there is no doubt that Si Woo at his best carries a ceiling as high as any of them.

Kim has gained over seven shots on approach on three separate occasions since last November and has about as stellar of a track record as you'll find on these positional bermudagrass courses (9th in SG: Total on Bermuda courses <7200 yards).

A runner-up at Harbour Town in 2018, Kim is sneakily playing some of the more consistent golf of his career in 2023 (nine T40s in his last 10 starts). If he shows some early signs of confidence, there's no doubt in my mind that he can take down a field of this caliber (see: Sawgrass, 2017).

Rickie Fowler (70-1): A 10th-place finish in his last start at Valero wasn't quite enough to punch a Masters' ticket, but Rickie Fowler did extend his run of torrid iron play that has been the catalyst of this 2023 resurgence. Fowler gained 6.4 shots on approach in San Antonio (his best iron week in nearly 6 years), and comes into Harbour Town as the sixth-best player on approach since the start of 2023.

Fowler's also found some recent form with the flat stick: gaining over half a shot per round on the greens in his last six starts, and although his historic Harbour Town track record leaves a lot to be desired, Fowler has experienced some notable success recently in the Palmetto State: finishing both 8th at the 2021 PGA Championship at Kiawah Island and 7th from tee-to-green in last years CJ Cup at Congaree Golf Club.

The question of Fowler's winning capability in a field this strong is still up in the air, but one thing is for sure: his recent run of form is far from a flash in the pan. If he continues to play at this kind of pace, the comeback win won't be far behind.

J.T. Poston (70-1): Of all the long shots listed in this section, Poston was the closest I came to actually making a move pre-tournament. The Hickory, North Carolina native already has a third, sixth, and eighth place finish to his name around Harbour Town, and comes into this year's iteration on the back of a T34 at Augusta National (+3.4 SG: APP), and three consecutive top results at direct comps to Harbour Town (T9 at Austin CC, T10 at Innisbrook, and T6 at PGA West).

Poston's talents really shine through on courses where driving distance is mitigated and he can do damage with his short irons and putter. Although he doesn't carry the same profile as guys like Fowler, Fleetwood, or Rose priced alongside him, Harbour Town is absolutely a venue that J.T. can break through with a marquee win.

Cameron Davis (125-1): The ever-mercurial Australian was in full form his last time out in San Antonio. Following an opening-round 80, Davis produced one of the rounds of the day in difficult windy conditions on Friday. A (-6) 66 beat the field average by over six shots, and Davis's swing was back to the free-flowing state that has drawn us in time and time again.

Gaining over four strokes ball-striking to the field in his last competitive round, Davis now makes for a very interesting proposition at an event where he finished one shot out of a playoff last year. I've always liked Davis on shorter, club-down courses where he can utilize his length to mitigate the erratic tendencies he often battles with off the tee.

Seven of his ten career T10s have come on direct comps to Harbour Town, and if he did truly find something on that Friday at Valero, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Davis on the first page of the leaderboard deep into the weekend.

Mackenzie Hughes (200-1): If there are two things I want in an outright longshot, it's recent form and winning pedigree. With a win at the Sanderson Farms last fall and two nice results in his last two marquee events, Mackenzie Hughes fits both of those criteria at 200-1.

Hughes took down big-time names like Shane Lowry, Max Homa, and Taylor Montgomery on route to a quarterfinal birth in last month's Match Play, and gained nearly five shots on approach in a T29 finish at last week's Masters.

Now we come to a golf course that should better suit Hughes' skillset, as he's had a great deal of historic success on these shorter, positional golf courses (Sea Island, TPC River Highlands, Colonial, etc). He should be full of confidence given his last two appearances against similar fields and if the current ball-striking and long-term putting splits can coincide for a few days, Harbour Town feels like the perfect venue for Mack to continue this run of great Canadien golf.

Best of luck guys, and Happy Hunting!

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