Flag Hunting: PGA Betting Picks - 2024 Masters

Between Monday's Course Preview piece (found right here on RotoBaller), and last night's podcast (currently posted on our X page), we've given all of you every possible trend, key stat, and player take needed to make the most educated betting decisions possible this week at Augusta National. This Wednesday article will now serve as a final bow to wrap up a jam-packed week of PGA content at Flag Hunting. No fluff, no rants or superfluous soliloquies, just the entirety of our 2024 Masters outright betting card.

The six names on this betting card are aimed at returning ~6.5 times our investment. Because of the inflated odds associated with the outright market, it becomes even more imperative to remain disciplined when setting your unit allocations from this article's picks. Golf outright betting is a notoriously fickle beast, and multiple month-long droughts are very much within the range of outcomes. However, at these prices, one single hit can pay off many weeks of poor decision-making.

In the two-year history at Flag Hunting, we've been fortunate enough to cash a total of 23 outright winners (a 21.3% hit rate) for a profit of over $16,000 (betting roughly $350 per week) and an aggregate ROI of 42.2%. The volatility of the sport means I can't promise you a winner in any given tournament, but if you're willing to bet methodically and stick with the process, the outright golf betting market has the potential to be one of the most profitable (and enjoyable) betting sweats in the business. But I suppose I'd better keep my word about the necessary rants, so with no further ado, here's every bet I've made for the 2024 Masters!

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2024 Masters Betting Card

Xander Schauffele (20-1)

5 days away. #TheMasters pic.twitter.com/fNG9NGmp7F

— Xander Schauffele Legion (@XanderLegion) April 6, 2024

As I mentioned in my Monday preview piece here on Rotoballer, the names that find themselves in contention on the Masters rarely sneak up on you. Over the last five years especially, Sunday duels at Augusta have typically been fought either between prolific course horses (Hideki Matsuyama, Cam Smith, Phil Mickelson), or simply one of the best players currently walking the planet (Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, Dustin Johnson).

Ideally, of course, you'd be looking for a player with a profile to fit each of those two criteria -- and in this field, nobody outside of Scottie Scheffler can combine recent form with Augusta pedigree quite like Xander Schauffele. The 30-year-old San Diegan enters his seventh Masters start on the back of a staggering run to begin the 2024 season, recording six top-10 finishes in eight starts while rating out as a top-five commodity in an assortment of key metrics.

• Third in Total Driving
• Third in Ball-Striking
• Fourth in SG: Around the Greens
• Third in Green in Regulation %
• First in Long-Iron Proximity
• Second in Strokes Gained per Shot >150 yards
• First in Poor Shot Avoidance >200 yards
• First in 3-Putt Avoidance

Schauffele also brings with him a Masters CV that includes three top 10s over his last five appearances -- including a runner-up finish to Tiger Woods in 2019, as well as a run of seven consecutive top 20s across all Major Championships. If Xander is ever destined to break through that elusive barrier and become a Major Champion, it would be difficult to find a better venue (or lead-in run of form) than this week at Augusta National. At 20-1, the all-around profile is too much to pass up.

Jordan Spieth (25-1)

Jordan Spieth is on a roll! Great chip in birdie on 10 after leaving it short. #Masters pic.twitter.com/m7TwB8ewgJ

— Justin Walters (@JustinWaltersTV) April 10, 2021

I, like many, had written off Spieth's chances over the last few months on the back of some pretty erratic form. But surprisingly, despite his recent downturn in results, the notoriously self-critical Spieth has spoken nothing but glowingly about his game in the media leading up to this week.

Diving deeper into the numbers, he may well have a case that his peak is much closer to returning than I initially gave him credit for. To this point, in 2024, Jordan Spieth ranks 12th on Tour in Strokes Gained: Putting -- better than Wyndham Clark, Sahith Theegala, and Brian Harman in that time. He ranks 23rd in Total Driving -- recently recording the third-best driving of his career (+5.1 Strokes Gained), and he ranks eighth on Tour in Strokes Gained: Total -- better than "in-form" commodities like Hideki Matsuyama, Rory McIlroy, and Cameron Young, and Tony Finau.

Jordan's 10th-place finish last week at the Valero might not be worthy of excessive adulation, but he was able to attain that position despite a brutal (+4) start on Thursday afternoon. He kept pace with the leaders for some time despite playing San Antonio's Par 5s at one-over par for the week and losing a near career-worst 3.1 strokes around the greens.

I know many golf bettors will cringe at the prospect of throwing money on a rather middling commodity in the Approach department (I'm as guilty as anyone), but coming off of his best iron week since last year's RBC Heritage, would it surprise anyone to see Jordan figure it out again around the shot-making confines of Augusta National (a set of green complexes he knows like the back of his hand)?

As always, there is still some uncertainty to the Spieth profile, but as we travel to one of his happiest historic hunting grounds, I'm willing to afford Jordan a bit more leeway than I have in previous months. If everything does come together on this hallowed ground, 25-1 will look like a very silly number in five days time.

 

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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

Joaquin Niemann (35-1)

Joaquin Niemann, who is playing in the same grouping as Tiger, just hit the 6th eagle in #themasters history to take the outright lead in the tournament 🤯👏pic.twitter.com/ya6umWjrem

— Covers (@Covers) April 7, 2022

Stealing from the overall sentiment I shared in my Schauffele write-up: betting the Masters doesn't have to be hard. Oftentimes, you can get a long way in this tournament by simply picking the players in the best current form, and through three months of 2024, Joaquin Niemann certainly has that box checked.

Over his last nine worldwide starts (ranging from Australia to Dubai and Hong Kong), the Chilean sensation has finished outside the top ten just once -- logging three wins and an additional four top fives in the process. He ranks third on the LIV Tour in Total Birdies, second in Driving Distance, and fourth in Green in Regulation rate, and last week at Doral, Joaco rated out second in the field in Scrambling Percentage (12/16).

Niemann also carries with him a sneakily trending run of form here at Augusta National. Since missing the cut as a 19-year-old debutante, Joaco has improved his finishing position in each of his three subsequent starts (T40, T35, T16). He's never lost strokes putting in any of his last three Masters' appearances, and he's got a long track record of success on longer, bentgrass courses (Muirfield Village, Wilmington CC, Olympia Fields North), and ranked fifth in total birdies at Augusta last year (19). If not for three sloppy holes in which Joaco recorded two doubles and a triple, we could well be talking about the 25-year-old as the hottest player on the planet with a top-five Masters' finish already to his name. At 35-1, those warning shots are all the incentive I need to take a preemptive position.

Cameron Young (66-1)

The first roar of the round courtesy of Cameron Young. #themasters pic.twitter.com/zP6CrgUfDR

— The Masters (@TheMasters) April 8, 2023

It is admittedly a tough ask for a player to record his first-ever top-level win at the year's biggest event, but if you've paid attention at all to Cameron Young's results over the last two years, this is one of the few players in the world for which that lofty target feels attainable.

The Wake Forest alum has already established himself as one of the best pure ball-strikers in the sport, yet somehow, his immensely impressive weekly baselines on the PGA Tour have been superseded by the airshow he's routinely put on display in his last seven Major starts. Since the 2022 PGA Championship, Young has recorded four finishes of eighth or better; he's never lost strokes in either ball-striking category (Off the Tee or Approach) and produced the second-best ball-striking week of the entire PGA Tour season in July's Open Championship at Royal Liverpool.

Over four days at Hoylake, Cam lapped the field with his driving and iron play, gaining a combined 16.8 strokes and besting the week's second-best ball-striker, Rory McIlroy, by six. He also ranked first right here at Augusta National in Total Driving in 2023 and recorded the fifth-best putting week of his entire career (+4.6) on this daunting green complex.

If Young can carry over any semblance of that hot putting run into this week's Masters edition, the rest of his game looks primed for another charge on the big stage. Cam ranks eighth thus far this season in Total Driving, he ranks sixth in this field in Long-Iron Proximity, and has gained at least three strokes from tee-to-green in eight of nine starts. Still widely available at 50-55/1, I don't believe his price is nearly indicative of the upside.

Cameron Smith (66-1)

Cameron Smith's fairway-wood bunker shot leads to an eagle on hole No. 8. #themasters pic.twitter.com/JDt1Sw15Zb

— The Masters (@TheMasters) April 7, 2023

He certainly can't claim to be in the same form he was since leaving for LIV as the World No. 2 nearly two years ago, but the proposition of getting Cameron Smith at 66-1 at Augusta National is still too tantalizing to pass up. Cam has utilized a Spiethian combination of shot-shaping and short-game artistry to amass three top-five finishes here since 2018, and over the last two months, Cam has shown enough lead-in form to trust that upside is still present (finishes of T2, T8, and T15 across five LIV starts).

After admittedly mailing in the first few months of 2023 to enjoy the fruits of his 2022 campaign, the Aussie quickly found his footing over the summer stretch. Not only did he record two wins and four additional top-tens between April and August on the LIV Tour, but Cam redeemed himself from a lackluster Masters performance with finishes of 9th and 4th at Oak Hill and LACC. Most notably, Smith showed he's still capable of contending with the best ball-strikers in the game -- gaining nearly a full shot per round with his irons over his last three Major appearances.

Of course, Cam's short game remains one of the sport's most bankable commodities, and provided he's done the requisite preparation this past offseason, I see no reason why he can't build on his sterling Masters' track record. Cammy's always been a favorite of ours over at Flag Hunting -- cashing us two outright tickets in his breakout 2022 season. At 66-1, there's not a bet I'm more excited to track over these four days.

Patrick Reed (100-1)

A slinging approach to two feet on No. 9 by past champion Patrick Reed. #themasters pic.twitter.com/lFTZ1eSe9H

— The Masters (@TheMasters) November 12, 2020

Although Brooks Koepka and Mickelson made most of the headlines under the LIV banner 12 months ago, Patrick Reed quietly recorded his best Masters Finish since his 2018 triumph. Reed's T4 finish was the third top-ten result he's had since lifting the trophy six years ago, and he was one of just two players in last year's field to navigate the week without a round above par.

In addition to this stellar Augusta resume, Reed comes into this week on the back of two consecutive top tens in Miami and Macau and showed last season that he's still a man to watch when the conditions are at their toughest (4/4 Made Cuts in the Majors; two top 20s). If you're looking for a player with the pedigree to stand up to Scottie Scheffler or Rory McIlroy, it'd be difficult to find a player better suited than Reed -- who has made a name on staring down the Tour's biggest stars at it's most demanding venues (Torrey Pines, Doral, Augusta National, and Bethpage Black to name a few).

Frankly, I fail to see how books have left Reed at this inflated price, given the winning pedigree, his recent life across multiple Tours, and his documented affinity for Augusta National. He's everything I could possibly want in a long-shot Masters punt, and I'd honestly consider him as an outright bet at prices 30-40 points lower than his current listing.

 

In-Tournament Strategy

With these six names on the card, we've used up the entirety of our weekly outright budget. However, for those of you all interested in tackling this week's in-tournament market, this section will outline a few names to monitor, as well as a few potential angles to use when assessing player viability over the course of the week.

• With a scoring average of nearly two over par over the last three years (the most difficult course on the schedule at that time), it's no surprise that birdie chances at Augusta National are few and far between. Outside of the four Par 5's that all feature birdie rates north of 30%, only two other holes on the property (3 and 16) yield birdies at a greater than 15% rate.
• The lack of chances players will get on the one and two-shotters make Par 5 scoring even more important on a week like this. Since 2009, Par 5 scoring at the Masters has accounted for 72% of the winner's total output, and the last three champions (Rahm, Scheffler and Matsuyama), have combined to play the Par 5's at a resounding (-29) - a whopping 91% of their total scoring for the week!
• In fact, since 2017, only two of the last seven champions have played the Par 3s and 4s at better than (-2) for the week, which underlies my initial point on the 14 other holes around ANGC. If you can routinely take advantage of the Par 5s, par is almost always a good score everywhere else.
• Nine of the 18 holes in Augusta's routing would be categorized as "Bogey Avoidance Opportunities," meaning that a par on any one of them would cut the average field by around two-tenths of a stroke. In particular, 1, 4, 5, 10, 11, and 18 stand out to me as the major obstacles: each carrying a bogey or worse rate of 28-36% and holding a cumulative scoring average of (+1.62) between the six of them.
• We won't be going off of split tees this week, so the individual difficulty of the two nines means less than in a 150-man field. However, there are a few credences I still follow when live betting at Augusta. In assessing potential adds in the live market, the 12th hole is the key tipping point in a players round, as it not only marks the end of one of the courses toughest stretches (10, 11, 12), but leads directly into the most score-able stretch of the property. From holes 13-16, players will get to step up to two reachable par fives (13 and 15), a short-iron par three (16), and the third easiest par four on the course (14). This is about as good as the opportunities get around Augusta National and our best chance as bettors to take advantage of in-tournament value.
• Moving away from the routing as a whole, an angle specific to this week will be the weather that is forecasted to come into effect over the first two days. According to WindFinder, Thursday morning could easily see nearly a full inch of rain and wind gusts touching 40 mph. Time will clearly tell if projections hold (and if players are even allowed out in these brutally difficult conditions), but if play continues as scheduled, a decisive wave advantage could be in store for afternoon starters who will get to watch the Thursday morning carnage from the comfort of their homes.
• If and when we do see an unaffected run of play through the Thursday AM storms, here is a list of players with compelling profiles whose stock could be bolstered by the luck of an afternoon tee time:
  • Shane Lowry (12:24)
  • Patrick Reed (12:48)
  • Cameron Young (1:12)
  • Brooks Koepka (1:36)
  • Jordan Spieth (1:48)
  • Sahith Theegala (1:48)
  • Dustin Johnson (2:00)

Best of luck, guys, and happy hunting!

 

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