Fantasy Football Tight End Preparation for Week 7

Robert deciphers the fantasy football tight end landscape to identify breakouts and to help avoid players who are fool's gold for Week 7 of the 2023 NFL season. Taking a deep dive into the advanced statistics can help get out in front of trends.

While the tight end position is never fun, Week 6 may have given fantasy managers two more options to consider. Both Michael Mayer and Trey McBride had breakout weeks. It wasn’t just the production that was positive, but more importantly, a change in their utilization that should have fantasy managers excited - more on them later in the article.

If fantasy managers were expecting T.J. Hockenson to become an even bigger part of the passing game in Minnesota with Justin Jefferson on the mend, they were likely a bit disappointed. He was still good, but he was who he’s always been and now in his fifth year in the NFL, fantasy managers shouldn’t expect that to change.

Kelce continues to reign supreme, but Andrews is nipping at his heels. Kelce currently has a 14.1 half-PPR PPG average and Andrews is at 11.9. Behind them two, only rookie Sam LaPorta is averaging over 10 PPG. Fantasy managers certainly don’t need to be told to start those three studs, but let’s take a gander at the rest of the tight end position, which gets ugly very quickly.

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Weeks 1-6 Statistical Review

With receivers, we can often just look at raw target data and target share to get a pretty good idea of which players will be productive and which ones we should be chasing. With the tight end, that’s not quite as effective because with such small numbers, even just 1-2 extra or fewer targets can make a difference in target share numbers.

Instead, we want to focus on opportunity, which not only includes raw targets and target share but also snap share, the raw number of routes run, and route participation rate. Below is a table based on six weeks of the NFL season. These statistics are based on the numbers and stats found at PFF, which is an incredible site filled with amazing data.

Holy Crap!!! Okay, It’s Happening!!!

When the 2023 season started, most thought Austin Hooper and Zach Ertz would be thorns in the sides of Michael Mayer and Trey McBride, respectively. Unfortunately, for the first five weeks, they’ve been way more than thorns. Hooper and Mayer were splitting snaps fairly evenly, but Hooper was the preferred pass-catching tight end and was running far more routes than Mayer. Ertz was the clear and undisputed No. 1 tight end in Arizona.

The Raiders’ coaching staff finally found their common sense in Week 6 and made Mayer their full-time tight end and he delivered in a big way. There is still room for growth, but his utilization this past weekend, even if it doesn’t improve puts him on the streaming radar.

As you can see from the table above, all of Mayer’s utilization metrics improved significantly. His route participation jumped 30%. While we’d prefer that number to be closer to 75%, it’s fair to except, that based on his performance, it’ll likely continue to climb in future weeks. With the expanded opportunity, Mayer absolutely delivered. He finished with an 18.7% target share, earning six targets, and catching five for 75 yards. In Weeks 1-5, he had five targets, three receptions, and 41 yards total. This passing offense is going to continue flowing through Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers, but Mayer looks as though he’ll be the primary No. 3 option.

Small sample but you gotta love what we've seen from Michael Mayer the past 2 weeks.

2.00+ YPRR in both games.

61 of his 114 yards AFTER-contact (8.7 YAC/reception).

2nd HIGHEST single-game PFF Receiving Grade (89.1) of any TE with 5+ targets in a game this year.

(behind only…

— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) October 17, 2023

He was insanely productive in college, finishing with 204 targets, 138 receptions, 1,649 yards, and 16 touchdowns over his final two seasons at Notre Dame. He led his team in receiving in all four categories for the 2022 season and led in all but receiving yards in 2021. He posted a 22% target share in 2021, which increased to 31% in 2022.

If you’re hurting at tight end, streaming the position, or starting a safe, but very boring veteran tight end, Mayer absolutely needs to be a target. He showcased a vastly expanded role, delivered in that role, and has an elite collegiate profile. This is exactly the kind of player fantasy managers should be betting on. It’s wheels up as far as I can tell. If his role continues to expand, he could become a weekly starter. He certainly has the talent for it.

We’re not quite at the same level with McBride, but the Cardinals’ coaching staff did finally start to see some reason. However, they didn’t fully come around just yet. McBride out-snapped and out-targeted Ertz in Week 6, but Ertz still ran four more routes than McBride. Although that was the closest their routes run had been all year. At least we’re moving in the right direction.

McBride’s 46% route participation still has a long way to go before fantasy managers can actually trust him as a starting option, but this can change fast. Mayer’s route participation was, wait for it, 46% in Week 5 before jumping to 67% in Week 6. We did see a noticeable uptick in McBride’s utilization. His snap share jumped 18%, his route participation jumped 17%, and he ran six more total routes than his previous per-game average. All of that is great news, but the more important part is what he did with it.

McBride delivered on the trust his coaching staff put in him. He earned five targets, caught four of them, and finished with 62 receiving yards, which paced the team. Ertz hasn’t had more than 55 yards in any week this season. On the year Ertz has 24 receptions for 168 yards, which is a seven yards per reception average. McBride has half the number of catches (12) but has 141 yards, an 11.7 yards per reception average.

Trey McBride's peripherals are WAY up this year.

53.6 PFF Receiving Grade as a rookie.
72.6 PFF Receiving Grade this year (12th among TE's)

.84 YPRR as a rookie.
1.99 YPRR this year (9th among TE's)

Very much "back on the dynasty menu."

— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) October 17, 2023

McBride is averaging 9.4 yards per target compared to just 4.3 for Ertz. McBride also has a significantly higher yard-per-route run average (2.02 vs 1.04). McBride has been the far superior pass-catching option by just about any metric so this shouldn’t be surprising. McBride was a second-round pick in 2022 and Ertz is almost 33 and coming off a torn ACL and MCL injury last year. The Cardinals are 1-5 on the season and they should be looking to the future. In that sense, it’s logical for them to see what they have in McBride. If his college production is any indication, they’re likely not to be disappointed.

In his junior season (2021), he finished with 34 targets, 22 receptions, 330 yards, and four touchdowns. Due to an injury, he only appeared in four games. He did, however, have an elite 29.3% target share. If we extrapolate his per-game stats over a typical 12-game collegiate season, he would’ve finished with 102 targets, 94 receptions, 1,402 yards, and 12 touchdowns. Obviously, it’s unlikely he would’ve finished with those numbers, but it does give us a better idea of just how good he was playing in those four games before getting hurt.

As a senior, he finished with 134 targets, 90 receptions, 1,121 yards, and just one touchdown in 12 games. He had a 34.0% target share. McBride, like Mayer, has an elite collegiate profile and was selected in the second round. This is the exact type of player fantasy managers should be betting on. He was an elite producer in college, was drafted early, has performed well in the NFL on a small sample, and has an expanding role. If you needed any more reason to pull the trigger, Arizona just designated Kyler Murray to return. McBride could be a waiver wire darling down the stretch.

So… That Just Happened.

For the past few years, Taysom Hill had a tight end designation even though he was arguably more quarterback and running back than tight end. From 2021-2022, Hill combined for 19 targets, 13 receptions, and 129 receiving yards. Over that same time, he’s had 166 carries and 949 rushing yards to go along with 91 pass completions, 153 pass attempts, and 1,218 passing yards. Definitely more running back and quarterback than tight end.

Then something weird happened this past weekend - the Saints actually used Hill as a tight end. A legit tight end. He finished with eight targets, seven receptions, and 49 yards. Starting tight end, Juwan Johnson was still out with a calf injury, which likely played a role. That said, Hill finished with a 16% target share and a 63% route participation rate. He also handled one carry for two yards.

Taysom Hill played a season-high 49 offensive snaps in Week 6.

Alignment:

Slot - 51%
Inline - 27%
Wide - 14%
QB - 8%

— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) October 16, 2023

It’s hard to know if this kind of role will continue from week to week, but if it does, Hill absolutely should be rostered. While we can’t expect a 16% target share and eight targets on a weekly basis, if we can be assured he’s going to have a route participation rate of around 65% and continue to get some rushing attempts, he’s going to become a very interesting tight end. A real tight end. It’s possible this all changes once Johnson comes back, but until then, Hill is someone to watch.

The tight end position is a wasteland of bad and slightly less bad options. If Hill can maintain a role where he’s going to receive a 60-65% route participation and earn 4-5 targets a week with 1-3, likely red zone carries, he’s going to possess a higher weekly ceiling than most. I’m not entirely sure what to make of his Week 6 utilization, but I am most definitely intrigued.

Praying for a Touchdown!

There was a lot and I mean a lot of hype surrounding Darren Waller this offseason. He was going to be Daniel Jones’ undisputed No. 1 target. He possessed the upside to finish in the top five among tight ends. He was going to have a major bounce-back season. Through six weeks, all of that is technically true, even though realistically, none of it is.

Fantasy managers are likely very disappointed in their draft selection of Waller. He’s averaging just 7.0 half-PPR points per game, which is tied for 12th. However, all except one other player above him have scored a touchdown. Waller actually sits fifth in targets and receptions among tight ends, and sixth in receiving yards. This is despite being limited in Week 1. So again, all the hype around Waller was legit and in some ways, it’s all been fulfilled. For reasons outside of Waller’s control, none of it has materialized into any significant fantasy football value.

Most targets this year without a receiving TD:

Michael Thomas - 46
DeAndre Hopkins - 44
Evan Engram - 42
Darren Waller - 40
Chris Godwin - 36
Elijah Moore - 33
Josh Jacobs - 32
Michael Gallup - 32
Tyler Higbee - 29

(@PFF)

— Drew Davenport (@DrewDavenportFF) October 18, 2023

Quarterback Daniel Jones has been awful. It hasn’t been all his fault, the offensive line has been arguably the worst in the NFL. Not surprisingly then, the offense has struggled mightily. Through six weeks, the Giants are 32nd in points scored and 31st in total yards gained. They’re 31st in passing yards and 32nd in passing touchdowns with just two.

If Waller were to have just two touchdowns his PPG average would jump to 9.0 and he’d sit at TE6, which would be more or less in line with what fantasy managers expected. However, due to the team’s abysmal offense, he has just three red zone targets and his touchdown opportunity is virtually nonexistent.

A Tale of Two Halves

Through the first three weeks, Schultz was looking like a massive bust. Fantasy managers who invested in him were hoping he’d be to C.J. Stroud what he was for Dak Prescott - a trusted security blanket. In Weeks 1-3, he had compiled just 14 targets, seven receptions, and 47 yards. He had a total of 8.2 half-PPR points, a 2.7 PPG average.

Since then, Schultz has racked up 20 targets, 14 receptions, 168 yards, and three touchdowns. He’s scored double-digits in three straight games and has amassed 41.8 half-PPR points, a 13.9 PPG average. Nothing has changed about his utilization, but rather it’s been his efficiency that’s improved.

In Weeks 1-3, his target per route run was at just 10%, but in Weeks 4-6 that has jumped to 33%. Schultz has been better at earning targets more recently. He’s also been more effective with the targets he’s earned. He caught just 50% of his targets in the first three weeks and 70% in the last three. His yards per reception average increased from 6.7 yards to 12.0 yards. The question becomes which Schultz should we expect for the rest of the season?

The answer most likely is neither. Schultz won’t be as bad as he was in the first three weeks and won’t be as good as he was in the last three weeks. That may seem like a bit of a cop-out, but it’s the simple truth. That means, he’s an excellent tight end to sell high on. Marketing the starting tight end for Stroud and a pass-happy Houston offense, especially after the success he had in Dallas in recent seasons, and his last three seasons shouldn’t be that difficult.

If he’s not your starting tight end, offering Schultz in a trade is not a bad idea. Pairing him and a running back or receiver to another league mate struggling at tight end for an upgrade to the running back or receiver you’re offering would be a savvy move and one fantasy managers rostering Schultz as their backup tight end should try to implement.

Do The Falcons Have Two Startable Tight Ends?

The short answer is yes. Jonnu Smith and Kyle Pitts are both startable. I’d most definitely rather start Pitts than Jonnu though. Pitts has a higher target share, more targets per game, and a higher route participation. That said, Smith is currently on pace for 91 targets, 71 receptions, and 799 yards. That’s despite having zero targets in Week 1, so he’s certainly someone who deserves recognition, as well.

The Atlanta offense has utilized their tight end position far more than any other team in the NFL through six weeks. This is somewhat surprising, but the team does not have a capable WR2 behind Drake London. This has helped facilitate more targets to the tight end position. That utilization has made Pitts a must-start option and Smith has climbed up into the appealing streamer category.

lol pic.twitter.com/5VehV82XJ4

— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) October 17, 2023

Since Week 2, Smith has scored over six half-PPR points in all five games and has even scored in double-digits twice, despite only having one touchdown. Anytime a tight end can get to 10 half-PPR points without a touchdown, credit must be given. To that end, Smith is currently TE10 with a 7.5 half-PPR PPG average and Pitts is TE13 at a 7.0 PPG average.

Crazy, but True Tight End Stats

1. Evan Engram currently has the third-most targets with 44 (Hockenson is first with 47), but Engram has zero (!!!) red zone targets. 67 other tight ends have at least one red zone target.
2. Jonnu Smith has more receptions and yards than Kyle Pitts.
3. Zach Ertz is sixth in targets, but 20th in receiving yards.
4. 19 tight ends are averaging more targets per game than George Kittle.
5. Cade Otton has the highest snap share among tight ends. He’s run 153 routes, 31.6 per game, which is the seventh-highest. Despite this elite utilization, he has 17 targets, 13 receptions, 104 yards, and one touchdown. He’s our cardio king at tight end.
6. Hunter Henry had 13 targets, 11 receptions, 108 yards, and two touchdowns in Weeks 1-2. From Weeks 3-6, Henry has just 15 targets, seven receptions, 75 yards, and zero touchdowns. He averaged 14.1 half-PPR PPG in Weeks 1-2 and just 2.7 PPG in Weeks 3-6. Those first two weeks are looking like a massive outlier.
7. Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid have played 11 games this season. They have combined for just two games above five half-PPR points and zero with double-digits.
8. Kelce has a 100% TE1 success rate (top-12 TE in 5/5 weeks). Andrews is second at 80%. LaPorta, Engram, and Hockenson are tied for third with a 66.7% success rate. Higbee, Kmet, and Schultz are at 50%. Logan Thomas and Musgrave are at 40%. Kittle, Waller, Henry, Ferguson, Jonnu Smith, Pitts, Kylen Granson, and Donald Parham Jr. are all tied at 33%. Other notable players with one top-12 finish include Goedert, Knox, Freiermuth, Ertz, Mayer, Conklin, and McBride.

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