RADIO
As a wide receiver drafted out of the University of Alabama, Jaylen Waddle is looking to carry on quite a tradition. Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Jerry Jeudy, Amari Cooper, and Henry Ruggs III are all former Tide receivers to be taken in the first round of the NFL Draft over the past decade. What is unique about Waddle is that he was vastly overshadowed by teammate DeVonta Smith in his final college season yet was drafted earlier and is considered the better pro prospect.
That's why the Dolphins, a team in need of an impact player at receiver, took Waddle with the sixth overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. He fits their offensive system and team needs perfectly. He also happens to be reunited with his former teammate now responsible for getting him the ball, QB Tua Tagovailoa.
What are the Fins getting with Waddle and what should fantasy GMs expect going forward? Let's break it down in today's rookie spotlight.
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College Performance
Waddle didn't earn his draft stock through compiling massive stats. Over three seasons at 'Bama, he accumulated 106 receptions for 1,999 yards. That's 143 fewer than Smith got in 2020 alone. Of course, competing with a slew of NFL-caliber talent receivers over the years makes it tougher to stand out. The main issue has been health. Waddle suffered an ankle injury in the fifth game of the season against Tennessee and would not return, at least for the regular season.
His most notable game turned out to be one of his worst statistically - the National Championship game against Ohio State where he somehow caught three balls for 34 yards despite limping around the field after returning from ankle surgery. He had no business suiting up and it caught the attention of several NFL players who pointed it out:
NFL stars reacted to Jaylen Waddle returning from a fractured ankle to play in the #NationalChampionship game. pic.twitter.com/o9E5VJyRn5
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) January 12, 2021
His response might have cemented his status as a top-10 draft pick.
"I was just trying to win" -Jaylen Waddle wasn't concerned about getting re-injured in the national championship game pic.twitter.com/UgpAHj1jVh
— William Galloway (@Wm_Galloway) January 14, 2021
Although it wasn't the wisest decision in retrospect, Waddle came out no worse for the wear and will be fine heading into the 2021 season. In the process, he showed how much of a competitor he is at heart.
In all, Waddle's college performance was a mixed bag. Despite the fact he missed half his junior year and declared for the pros in lieu of his senior year, he wound up 10th on Alabama's all-time receiving yard leaderboard and his 18.9 yards per reception ranks 11th among all Bama players with at least 10 career receptions.
The downside is that his College Dominator rating was a lowly 19.7% (22nd percentile) and his late breakout age of 21.8 ranks in the 20th percentile. On paper, Waddle wouldn't seem to be a top-tier prospect but if you saw what he did when healthy with the ball in his hands, you will quickly give him a pass.
The Tua Connection
Once Ja'Marr Chase went off the board to Cincinnati, Miami could have gone with either of Tua Tagovailoa's former targets. DeVonta Smith seemed like the logical pick coming off a monster Heisman-winning campaign but Waddle had drawn more praise from scouts since before 2020. Interestingly enough, the knock on DeVonta Smith is his size, specifically the 175 pounds he weighs. Waddle isn't much bigger at 182 lb and stands just 5'10" as opposed to 6'1". The difference is that Waddle will operate in the slot where agility matters more than size.
The receiver position was problematic for Miami all last year. Albert Wilson opted out along with Allen Hurns, then Preston Williams got hurt (again) midseason. Aside from DeVante Parker, their best options included kick returner Jakeem Grant and 2017 seventh-round pick Isaiah Ford, who is no longer with the team.
Here is how the slot routes played out for the Dolphins in 2020 (stats from RotoWire):
QB/RB/WR hybrid Lynn Bowden Jr. took hold of the slot receiver role down the stretch but the team would rather use him in a variety of spots than simply running routes across the middle of the field.
Enter Waddle, who should immediately occupy the role with Parker and free-agent addition Will Fuller playing X and Z.
Like most receivers, his success is contingent on his quarterback. Like Ja'Marr Chase in Cincinnati, Waddle will have the benefit of reuniting with his college QB from two years ago so chemistry shouldn't be an issue.
Miami wasn't a prolific passing team, ranking 19th in pass play percentage in 2020. Their stout defense and ball-control mentality, along with the fact they had a rookie under center for much of the season, led to a limited aerial attack. The aforementioned injuries and opt-outs at receiver played a factor as well.
The last thing to note is that Miami enters the season with a new philosophy. Long-time NFL offensive coordinator Chan Gailey is out after one season in the 305, so it will be a cooperative effort between co-coordinators Eric Studesville and George Godsey. It's hard to know how this will shake out since Godsey has just two previous years as OC under his belt and Studesville has none. They serve as RB and TE position coaches respectively as well, so there should be plenty of balance when it comes to distributing targets.
In 2020, no Dolphins receiver earned as much as 20% of the target share and there were eight different players who had at least 5% of the pie. If DeVante Parker and Will Fuller both manage to stay healthy (a big if but possible) then Waddle is facing an uphill battle to seeing heavy usage, especially when you include Mike Gesicki, Myles Gaskin, Lynn Bowden, and possibly Albert Wilson in the fold.
Waddle can't be drafted before Chase or Smith in redraft leagues. Smith could quickly to the WR1 role on his team and Chase is in a pass-heavy offense. Miami will remain league average or slightly above in terms of pass attempts and Waddle isn't likely to become a target hog.
Recent ADP from best-ball drafts and early mocks have Waddle going just inside the top 100 overall, typically in round seven or eight of a 12-team league.
Dynasty Outlook
Waddle was the second wide receiver off the board in the NFL Draft but isn't necessarily the second-best dynasty receiver. In terms of fantasy output, he could be outscored by Smith or even one of Elijah Moore or Rondale Moore. Each of the Moores projects to work in the slot but Rondale is in an Air Raid attack with Kyler Murray at QB and Elijah may be the main target in his offense. From a pure talent standpoint, Waddle wins out over all those players. But talent isn't what makes for fantasy championships - opportunity plays a huge role.
I currently have Waddle as the WR3 among rookies and sixth-ranked player in rookie drafts. I can't argue someone preferring Rondale Moore or even Elijah Moore but Waddle is still a surefire first-rounder and should be taken above all running backs other than Najee Harris.
In a dynasty startup, he moves up significantly from his redraft ranking to 66 overall as the WR31. Youth always matters but we also should expect growth as Waddle and Tagovailoa reconnect. Will Fuller is simply on a one-year deal and Parker has never managed to stand out as the alpha in this passing game even when healthy. Waddle is a dynamic talent and fiery competitor who should be a dynasty asset for years to come.
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