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We are on to the outfield in our last-minute fantasy baseball sleepers series. I covered the other positions as well, so be sure to check them out:
- First Base Fantasy Baseball Draft Sleepers
- Second Base Fantasy Baseball Draft Sleepers
- Third Base Fantasy Baseball Draft Sleepers
- Shortstop Fantasy Baseball Draft Sleepers
Outfield is a tough position to tackle given that such a high percentage of your starting lineup comes from the position. There are a lot of leagues out there that have you start five outfielders, which makes your lineup disproportionately full of outfielders.
In those situations, and pretty much in all situations, you will want to get an outfielder or two really early on in the draft. Most of the first round is made up of stud outfielders; a lot of the elite stats are clustered in at the top of the position. Even if you end up with a strong start at the outfield position, you will want to dive into the position late in the draft as well. Hopefully, the five names below can help you in doing so.
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Austin Meadows, Detroit Tigers
ADP: 266
It has been a bumpy ride for Austin Meadows. He really burst onto the fantasy scene in 2019 in his first full season with the Rays, hitting 33 homers and stealing 12 bags while slashing .291/.364/.558 across 138 games. That made Meadows a top-25 outfielder for the lost 2020 season and the 2021 season. In that 2021 season, he was useful again, playing 142 games while hitting 27 homers and driving in 106 - but the batting average fell to .234 and he stole just four bases.
The bottom came out in 2022 when Meadows went without a home run in 36 games and then missed the rest of the season due to injury. Now he's back for 2023 and ready to be an everyday outfielder for the Tigers. His ADP has him going undrafted in some standard leagues, which is pretty crazy after we're reminded about what he did in 2019 and 2021.
Detroit is a bad place to be for fantasy value, but Meadows is very skilled and has shown the ability to be a start-worthy outfielder in the past. I am buying the dip here and hoping for the best.
Jake Fraley, Cincinnati Reds
ADP: 287
The bearded Reds outfielder was quite productive at times in the lineup last season, hitting 12 homers with a .259/.344/.468 slash line in just 68 games. He managed the strikeout very well (22%) and took a good number of walks (10.5%), making him a very nice OBP piece.
He's back in a Reds uniform this year, and profiling pretty well for where he gets drafted. He has a career .330 OBP and a non-awful 6.6% barrel rate. That makes him a great target in OBP leagues, and Great American Ball Park can absolutely turn a 7% barrel rate into a 20+ homer season. Add onto that he projects for 10-15 steals, and you have a pretty appealing player here near pick 300.
Nick Gordon, Minnesota Twins
ADP: 309
Gordon had an injury scare in camp but is scheduled to get some spring games in here very soon, giving us optimism for him being on the field for the Twins early on in the regular season. That's great news, and it makes his depressed ADP all the more attractive.
Last season, Gordon put up a 72% contact rate with a 9.4% barrel rate. Neither of those numbers is a standout mark, but the contact rate is above the danger zone, and the barrel rate is above the league average. We see a lot of red in his Statcast profile as well:
Good sprint speed and good quality of contact. That is what you want from a sleeper, and Gordon has the advantage of still being relatively young (27) and playing multiple positions (eligible at second base and outfield).
Gordon probably won't be a guy that turns into a top-50 pick next year, but the skills are appealing enough to make me jump at him almost every time when he falls past pick 300.
Adam Duvall, Boston Red Sox
ADP: 330
Duvall is a bit of an old man at this point (34), but the one thing that hasn't gone away yet is the power. He hit 38 homers in 2021, becoming one of the better free-agent fantasy pickups of that season. Injuries kept him off the field a good bit last year, but he still managed a dozen homers in only 315 PAs, another 25+ homer pace.
Under the hood, things did fall off a bit last year (a 12.8% barrel rate down from 16.1% while the strikeout rate stayed above 30%), but it's still a solid power profile (.395 xSLG, 23.4-degree average launch angle). Fenway is a good place to hit homers for a guy that can get the ball well into the air, and you don't have to pull a fly ball very far to get it over the Green Monster as long as you hit it high enough.
Duvall has a job locked down for the Red Sox (more of a testament to their bad roster than to Duvall's ability, but it's all the same), and that should easily result in a 25+ homer season if he can stay on the field. Just be prepared for it to come with a .230 or worse batting average.
Alek Thomas, Arizona Diamondbacks
ADP: 394
Thomas was one of the most-hyped prospect debuts of the 2022 season. It went pretty poorly for him, which is why that's hard to remember.
In the Majors, he hit just .231/.275/.344 with eight homers and four steals across 411 PAs. The good news was the low strikeout rate (18%), but the bad news was the bad barrel rate (3.8%).
Over the last two seasons, Thomas has slashed .315/.395/.555 with 22 homers and 18 steals in 626 PAs between AA and AAA. He was one of the Diamondbacks' top prospects but was overshadowed mightily by Corbin Carroll and Jake McCarthy last year.
That last point alone makes him a sleeper. The DBacks will probably be starting Carroll and McCarthy along with veteran Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in the outfield on Opening Day, but it won't take a ton for Thomas to find some playing time - and it's not out of the question that he could steal the job from McCarthy quite early on. Thomas's speed and power ability make him someone we should not forget about - even while he probably shouldn't be drafted unless it's announced that he's an everyday player, which is very unlikely.
Other Potential Sleepers
- James Outman, Los Angeles Dodgers
- Matt Vierling, Detroit Tigers
- Kerry Carpenter, Detroit Tigers
- Josh Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays
- Kyle Stowers, Baltimore Orioles
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