DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - Tour Championship Golf Advice (2023)

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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Tour Championship

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PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The Tour Championship

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (234-174-23) 57.35%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (434-301-59) 59.05%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 36
• Units: +311.229 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2023
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One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

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Field

Field Size: 30
Cut: No Cut
Top 20 Entrants: 18

 

Last Five Winners Of Tour Championship (Not FedEx) - Using Non-Starting Strokes

2022	Rory McIlroy	-17
2021	Kevin Na/Jon Rahm	-14
2020	Xander Schauffele	-15
2019	Rory McIlroy	-13
2018	Tiger Woods	-11

Expected Cut-Line

2022
2021
2020
2019
2018

 

East Lake

7,350 Yards - Par 70 - Greens Bermuda

We do the same thing for the Tour Championship every year within this industry since switching to a staggered start. Half of the space will tell you that the deficit is easy to overcome since we see golfers recover from similar deficiencies weekly after Thursday night. The other 50% are under a mindset that most of the field is drawing dead, with only so many players having a chance to walk out of East Lake victorious. I do have an opinion that lands under one of those two parameters, but let's start with the course itself, and then we can get into some of the nuances of how we should expect the leaderboard to play out.

Measuring in as a rather lengthy Par 70 at 7,350 yards, East Lake is a challenging test that will ensure everyone earns their payday and does so by creating this complicated layout that provides very few opportunities to score. The par-three and four locations are long. You will notice a trend where golfers that compete for the title do a solid job of keeping their scorecards clean until we get to the two par-fives at the track. Usually, the reduction from four to two chances will minimize the impact we see in how much weight we need to attach to our models. However, when we look at the players that have taken down the FedExCup over the past few years, we get trends that point in a different direction.

Rory McIlroy gained nearly 53% of his scoring at those two locations in 2019. Dustin Johnson experienced a similar fate in 2020 during his victory by attaining 55%. Patrick Cantlay ran the table in 2021 by making birdie on the two holes every time for four days - resulting in a 72% impact towards his score. And McIlroy once again dominated those holes last season, posting a nine-under in his eight chances for nearly 53% of his total. That is a unique ask for a course where it is essential to miss shots to the correct quadrants with how the venue is structured. Golfers who ultimately end up missing their targets will need to be able to gain strokes around the green, and the addition of 74 bunkers and six water hazards will only amp up the difficulty for the millions of dollars that will be on the line.

For all those reasons, I don't believe this is the most accessible venue for those that need to play catch-up. The non-staggered winning score has hovered between 11-to-15 under during most iterations of the tournament (we did get a more accessible test last year), and it doesn't help that we are looking at par-five scoring being the best way for golfers in the field to attack. If the top players in the contest are making birdie on those holes 75%+ of the time, where do we get the chance for others to come from behind if the par-three locations are challenging to attack the pin and the par-four holes have too steep of a mixture of ease and difficulty? Sure, you might be able to argue that the key to success for the chasers will come down to being nearly perfect on the par-fives and avoiding any of the colossal mistakes on the lengthier par-fours while attacking the more gettable opportunities. Still, the path to victory starts to shrink little by little the further you stretch down the board.

 

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat	East Lake	PGA Average
Driving Distance	298	283
Driving Accuracy	58%	61%
GIR Percentage	69%	65%
Scrambling Percentage	56%	57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round	0.42	0.55

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green L24 (10%)

 

Weighted Strokes Gained Total (30%)

 

Strokes Gained Donald Ross (10%)

Weighted Scoring (20%)

 

Bogey Avoidance + Birdie or Better (10%)

 

Weighted Scrambling (10%)

 

Weighted GIR + Prox (10%)

Total Number Of Top 10's Out Of The Seven Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.

 

First Look Into Outright Bets (72 Holes - No Starting Strokes)

Golfer	Odds	Risk	Win
Lucas Glover	66	0.11	7.26
Russell Henley	33	0.22	7.26
Tommy Fleetwood	33	0.22	7.26
Sungjae Im	29	0.25	7.25

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

Ranking The Field (With Starting Strokes)

#30 Nick Taylor (-1) - Starting Spot 21st - DK Position 30th, Betting Odds 29th

We do get a mini head start with Nick Taylor over some of these names with his one-under total, but markets seem to agree with my model that he should be the lowest-priced option on the board. Taylor has struggled immensely since his win a few months ago, grading 28th in this field for strokes gained tee-to-green over his last 24 rounds. Add that to his 26th-place grade for weighted strokes gained total and 29th-place rank for weighted scoring, and you get a ceiling that may have problems if his proximity doesn't carry him.

#29 Emiliano Grillo (0) - Starting Spot 26th - DK Position 27th, Betting Odds 27th

Many of the values in this range are close one way or the other, but I didn't love how a prototypical low-upside golfer like Grillo ranked outside the top 20 in most areas where I ran numbers. Grillo's six categories outside that threshold got highlighted by placing 27th or worse in four out of seven occurrences. Can his respectable GIR percentage salvage other areas? Maybe. But I don't trust his last-place rank for par-five scoring.

#28 Sepp Straka (0) - Starting Spot 26th - DK Position 28th, Betting Odds 28th

The one thing with Sepp Straka compared to some alternatives is that he at least has a massive upside if the pieces get put together. A 12th-place grade for weighted GIR + proximity shouldn't be negated, but I'd argue that Straka is the most likely candidate in this field to finish last because of his volatile nature. At no ownership, I get taking a shot. However, Straka will likely be a trendy choice that has a floor that almost sunk him out of East Lake.

#27 Sam Burns (0) - Starting Spot 26th - DK Position 26th, Betting Odds 25th

Bermuda Burns! That statement alone will make him a top 15 owned player on the slate, especially when adding that to his name recognition and recent 15th-place finish at the BMW. While none of that should be completely ignored since being the top-ranked putter on the surface is a noteworthy return, Burns has struggled on similar Donald Ross tracks. The American places outside the top-25 for weighted scoring and expected strokes gained total, including coming in dead last for weighted proximity and GIR.

#26 Adam Schenk (-1) - Starting Spot 21st - DK Position 29th, Betting Odds 29th

I don't think Adam Schenk should be priced as low as he is on the board. If you had moved him into the lower $6,000 section, I wouldn't have had a gripe, which is why I understand the early ownership flocking in his direction. The recent tee-to-green is trending if you get stuck in a spot where you are forced to round out a build near the bottom, although it is not as if Schenk is massively popping off the board compared to the entire contest.

#25 Jordan Spieth (0) - Starting Spot 26th - DK Position 24th, Betting Odds 21st

People will see this price for Jordan Spieth and feel like it is a free square, which has a lot to do with why I am going to pass on him this week for DFS. If directly comparing, I'd rather take the discount in price on Schenk (or our next person in the standings) and get what I believe to be a similar commodity. Spieth probably can't be ranked any lower than this on the board, even though he starts tied for last.

#24 Taylor Moore (-1) - Starting Spot 21st - DK Position 25th, Betting Odds 26th

Taylor Moore is 30th in tee-to-green this season and 29th over his last 24 rounds. That might spell a problem on the surface, but his 17th-place rank for this course in recalculated projections in that area might be enough to make him an under-the-radar commodity to consider. I plan to have the American in my player pool at this moment.

#23 Corey Conners (-2) - Starting Spot 16th - DK Position 17th, Betting Odds 19th

Corey Conners has not posted a total better than 17th place at this course since in three attempts. I know the current form is trending, but the 29th-place grade on Donald Ross tracks and reverse moment in recalculated tee-to-green is troublesome. He gets a boost over almost all the players beneath him on the leaderboard, but I don't plan to roster him.

#22 Keegan Bradley (-3) - Starting Spot 11th - DK Position 16th, Betting Odds 16th

You get a three-under golfer that will go overlooked compared to most names in this event. However, I don't know what we are grasping at to expect a change from his current form. Bradley must be stellar with his irons to avoid the scrambling and recent tee-to-green woes. If you are looking to be ultra-contrarian, maybe. I just think there are better ways to go about that answer.

#21 Jason Day (-1) - Starting Spot 21st - DK Position 21st, Betting Odds 24th

We ain't... going nowhere. We ain't... going nowhere. We can't be stopped now... because it's bad boy for life.

#20 Si Woo Kim (-2) - Starting Spot 16th - DK Position 22nd, Betting Odds 21st

I like the early ownership and slotted-in price tag for Si Woo Kim. There will be concerns about his floor when we look at his built-in putting on a fast surface, although the driving accuracy, weighted proximity and around-the-green game will carry upside potential that makes sense for DFS.

#19 Tyrrell Hatton (0) - Starting Spot 26th - DK Position 23rd, Betting Odds 21st

We have gone verbatim with my sheet up to this point but will make a slight deviation here for Tyrrell Hatton because there is only so far up the board a true no-win equity option can climb on this slate. Hatton is trending toward being one of the highest-owned players this week because of the price tag, but I do get the statistical intrigue for someone who landed fifth at this event in 2020. The counterargument would be the current form, which may have to be further discussed later if this ownership stays steady. For now, let's call it a good price tag and a highly shaky ownership projection.

#18 Brian Harman (-4) - Starting Spot 6th - DK Position 10th, Betting Odds 9th

We are starting to get into some players with actual win equity to take home the Tour Championship. All these names have some percent chance when we run the data, but the majority of these next handful from three or four-under won't be making my pool for one reason or another. Harman has seen a price hike that is solely being built from his starting score, and his projected last-place grade for weighted strokes gained total is highly alarming. I have a feeling too many users will play him because of the four-under mark and ignore the stats.

#17 Tony Finau (-2) - Starting Spot 16th - DK Position 20th, Betting Odds 19th

I find intrigue in Tony Finau when looking into nothing more than him starting better on the leaderboard than his price tag rank compared to the field. I know the recent form has left a ton to be desired, but I don't mind taking one last swing on Finau during an event where he has nothing to lose.

#16 Wyndham Clark (-4) - Starting Spot 6th - DK Position 11th, Betting Odds 11th

I thought this Harman/Finau/Clark section was very transferable between spots. Depending on what you are trying to find, you can make an argument one way or another, but I can't get myself to play Harman/Clark at these current projections and price tags. Clark's increased win equity did give him a slight boost, but I have some concerns we are back to another course that won't suit his game.

#15 Matthew Fitzpatrick (-4) - Starting Spot 6th - DK Position 8th, Betting Odds 8th

An entire run of poor results got wiped away with Matthew Fitzpatrick's second at the BMW Championship. To me, all of this feels like an overreaction to the finest degree. If you take away the starting strokes, I am not sure he would be projected to beat Hatton straight up.

#14 Collin Morikawa (-1) - Starting Spot 21st - DK Position 19th, Betting Odds 16th

Morikawa is likely too far back to win, but I wouldn't put it past him making a real run up the board. I know the past results here haven't been ideal, but the iron play and weighted scoring can get hot for four days.

#13 Max Homa (-4) - Starting Spot 6th - DK Position 5th, Betting Odds 6th

It is going to be a fade for me with Max Homa. His mixture of ownership, price and one-off course history will be pronounced with gamers wanting to back that profile. While I understand the upside, I don't trust the Donald Ross history, total driving for East Lake or weighted proximity numbers.

#12 Rickie Fowler (-3) - Starting Spot 11th - DK Position 12th, Betting Odds 12th

We get a fair price on Rickie Fowler, albeit a lower ownership projection because of his recent form. I don't have a strong take one way or the other.

#11 Tom Kim (-2) - Starting Spot 16th - DK Position 17th, Betting Odds 16th

Tom Kim will get his first crack this season at East Lake, a course that you would think sets up nicely for his game. The 21-year-old carries one of the better ball-striking projections and places inside the top 10 for weighted scoring.

#10 Tommy Fleetwood (-3) - Starting Spot 11th - DK Position 13th, Betting Odds 12th

Wouldn't it be fitting for Tommy Fleetwood to win the fictitious 72-hole portion of the event while not winning the trophy? The Englishman will get a shot to play freely down this board, although he does have some concerns with his metrics when we look into the hefty ownership returns. I'd call Fleetwood marginally boom-or-bust.

#9 Russell Henley (-3) - Starting Spot 11th - DK Position 15th, Betting Odds 14th

Henley ranks second for weighted scrambling and has top-five returns for driving accuracy, recalculated par-four scoring and weighted strokes gained total. He is likely too far down this board to win, but I would give him a look in the 72-hole portion of the market.

#8 Sungjae Im (-2) - Starting Spot 16th - DK Position 15th, Betting Odds 14th

There are reasons to believe Sungjae Im figured out East Lake last year with his second-place scoring output over four days. The form is trending with back-to-back top-seven finishes, and while asking him to win this event at 110/1 is too large of a request, I don't see why he can't compete for the 72-hole title at 29/1 on FanDuel.

#7 Xander Schauffele (-3) - Starting Spot 11th - DK Position 7th, Betting Odds 7th

Schauffele hasn't finished worse than seventh here since 2018 when considering non-starting strokes. I am not sure the form is where we have seen it in years past. However, most of the answers are justified at their most basic level for why the American will garner heavy traffic.

#6 Lucas Glover (-5) - Starting Spot 5th - DK Position 9th, Betting Odds 10th

All the reasons I disliked Lucas Glover last week will swap back in his favor at East Lake. We will see if he can play the par-five holes well enough to compete for the Tour Championship title. If that answer is yes + he makes putts...this could be the name that springs the unlikely upset. BetRivers posted a juicy 66/1 on Monday without the starting strokes that I will use as my exposure to him in the outright market.

#5 Patrick Cantlay (-4) - Starting Spot 6th - DK Position 6th, Betting Odds 5th

Outside of Patrick Cantlay's 2021 finish on the 72-hole leaderboard and win of the FedExCup, it has been a disastrous run for him at East Lake. It is hard to imagine how his par-five scoring nature doesn't dominate this course at his best, but maybe his 72% scoring output on those holes during that FedExCup title explains the lack of upside he brings on the other 16 holes.

#4 Jon Rahm (-6) - Starting Spot 4th - DK Position 4th, Betting Odds 4th

Rahm managed to burn me during most rounds of last week's Showdown slate, but there is contrarian potential here if you believe he can flip the switch. Maybe you asking for too much, but I wouldn't discredit the long-term weighted strokes gained total grade of first.

#3 Viktor Hovland (-8) - Starting Spot 2nd - DK Position 3rd, Betting Odds 3rd

Hovland put together one of the best back-nine runs I have ever seen during last week's win at the BMW Championship. The Norweigan should be one of the favorites to hoist the year-end title, although I probably prefer Scheffler, McIlroy and Rahm when marginally reducing starting strokes in either direction. The two-shot advantage is enough for him to jump Rahm in my sheet, but it couldn't overtake Rory, who sits one shot behind at seven-under.

#2 Scottie Scheffler (-10) - Starting Spot 1st - DK Position 1st, Betting Odds 1st

I am going to say one of two things happens at East Lake for Scottie Scheffler. 1. He overcomes last year's disastrous finish and steamrolls the field to the FedExCup title. or 2. The demons lurk at some point and will cause a similar slip that we saw in 2022 at some point. Even though Scheffler should be the betting favorite, I will bet on him coming up just short again.

#1 Rory McIlroy (-7) - Starting Spot 3rd - DK Position 2nd, Betting Odds 2nd

Nine consecutive finishes inside the top-nine has only produced one victory at the Scottish Open. That level of safety plays well at East Lake, and the fact that he has topped the field in strokes gained at this venue two of the last four years only amplifies my belief that a three-shot deficit can easily be overcome. Don't be shocked if the often slow-starting Rory doesn't find a way to shoot five or six-under to flip the script on day one.

 

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