RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! As always, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research for the Sentry Tournament of Champions. You will be able to weigh out the categories however you see fit once you make a copy, and I always love hearing the success you have found while using the model. Thanks again for all the support, and let's have a successful week!
If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact Spencer on Twitter @Teeoffsports.
Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Sentry Tournament of Champions
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you want to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
Kapalua Plantation Course
7,596 Yards - Par 73 - Greens: Bermuda
The Kapalua Plantation course was designed in 1991 by Ben Crenshaw and Bill Coore but did undergo a minor restoration a few years back that was meant to enhance the difficulty. We did see more difficult scoring in 2020 when Justin Thomas took down the title at 14-under par, but it certainly wasn't because of any changes that were made. Things were back to normal last when 34 of the 42 players finished 11-under par or better and everyone in the top-10 shot between 19-under to 25-under.
Overall, this is one of the most straightforward courses that we have on tour. Kapalua is meant to play as a birdie fest to reward last year’s accomplishment of winning. In theory, scoring shootouts convolute the handicapping process and enhance hidden variables since more players tend to come into play when the course softens. but the fact that we have all the top players here minus Dustin Johnson and Rory McIlroy makes me believe that there is still only a certain quality of golfer that can win. There are some exceptions to the rule priced out above 50/1, but a player like Marc Leishman was the last one I gave real thought to inside the outright market at 40/1.
Please tune into my Bettor Golf Podcast or Be The Number Podcast to get a more in-depth rundown of what statistics I am weighing and why.
Note: For an exclusive in-depth look at this week's course, check out RotoBaller's Premium Course Breakdown written by Josh Bennett.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | Kapalua | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | 289 | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | 74% | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | 78% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 56% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.77 | 0.55 |
In Vegas, Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas lead the way at 8/1 and are followed by Collin Morikawa at 10/1, Bryson DeChambeau 12/1 and Viktor Hovland, Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay at 14/1.
Key Stats
- Strokes Gained Total on Slow to Average Bermuda Green Speeds 12.5%
- SG Total on Easy To Hit Fairways At Average-To-Long Courses 12.5%
- Course Specific Par-Four 15% - (You can listen to Be The Number or Bettor Golf)
- Par-Five Birdie or Better 17.5%
- Overall Birdie or Better 17.5%
- Putting From 5-10 Feet 10%
- Relevant Proximity Distance 15%
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
There are five players this week priced above $10,000:
- Safest Play: Jon Rahm ($11,000) - Jon Rahm has never finished worse than 10th place in his previous four starts at the track. One could argue that a course with more teeth to it would be where the Spaniard might shine best, but the built-in floor for Rahm should not go unnoticed.
- Most Upside: Justin Thomas ($10,600) - I get the infatuation around Justin Thomas in Hawaii. Maybe not to the point of him being 40% owned, but four top-three finishes over the past five years (including two wins) is the best resume of anyone entered into the field. Gamers will have to decide when it comes to Thomas' popularity, but the number one birdie maker on tour should be able to keep the scoring coming in bunches at Kapalua.
- Favorite GPP Play: Bryson DeChambeau ($10,200) - Bryson DeChambeau will be the wild card of the group. I wouldn’t put it past him bludgeoning the layout, but the short irons are going to be in play a lot for him at Kapalua — a stat he ranks dead last in the field. The pricing seems fair at $10,200, and I have no issues if the ownership hovers around 20-25%.
- Fade: Viktor Hovland ($10,000) - I don’t want to overanalyze Viktor Hovland's 31st place finish last year, and perhaps I am lower on him than I should be for an event that does feature a slower surface that somewhat mimics that of his preferred choice of Paspalum, but Hovland ranks dead last in this field around the green over his past 24 rounds. These are large surfaces that will amplify his struggles if he does happen to miss, and I’m not necessarily encouraged by his 35th place rank when looking at just slow Bermuda overall.
- Most Likely Winner: Bryson DeChambeau ($10,200)
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
- Safest Play: Xander Schauffele ($9,500) - Xander Schauffele hasn't finished outside of fifth place here in three years. Like Justin Thomas, gamers will need to figure out how much exposure they want because of the popularity around each, but Xander's putting from five-to-10 feet mixed with his proximity from the pertinent distances and overall scoring ability is hard to ignore.
- Most Upside: Patrick Cantlay ($9,700)
- Favorite GPP Play: Patrick Cantlay ($9,700) - It is a small range with only three players to choose between, but early leverage opportunities are pointing squarely towards Patrick Cantlay. Cantlay is currently projected to be the 13th highest owned player on the board, and his all-around game will look to build off of his 13th and fourth place showings over the last two iterations of the event.
- Fade: Sam Burns ($9,100) - Personally, I am going to have zero Sam Burns unless we get a massive correction in ownership. I think Burns is as solid as they come on tour, but I can’t understand how he is projected to be higher-owned than Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele. I know Burns tore up the offseason, but momentum is a dangerous thing to chase after all players got iced with the break. Playing this course in the past is a benefit, and the fact Burns doesn’t have that experience is enough for me to take my chances fading him if he is going to be a top-five owned player.
- Most Likely Winner: Patrick Cantlay ($9,700)
$8,000 Range
- Safest Play: Jordan Spieth ($8,900) - I'm all in on Jordan Spieth at the Sentry. The American ranks first in this field when it comes to par-four average, easy to hit fairways and strokes gained total on Bermuda, which is before we even talk about him finishing in the top-nine during every trip to the property since 2014.
- Most Upside: Cameron Smith ($8,300) - Cameron Smith ranks second on tour in my adjusted par-five scoring model - something that should help him this week in Hawaii at a venue where par-five scoring will play a massive factor.
- Favorite GPP Play: Tony Finau ($8,000) - Tony Finau is a potentially exciting GPP play. The American surprisingly has struggled some lately on par-fives, but the wide-open fairways should allow him to use his distance and not worry about some of the misses that have troubled him over the past few months.
- Fade: Daniel Berger ($8,400) - I don't have a huge fade in this range. I do think Daniel Berger is better suited for cash-game builds than GPPs, so I will use him for this section. I do want to note that I am not beating the drum for completely avoiding him.
- Most Likely Winner: Jordan Spieth ($8,900)
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000)
- Safest Play: Marc Leishman ($7,500) - I love his statistical fit for Kapalua. I don't love the ownership.
- Most Upside: Patrick Reed ($7,900) - I'm not overly concerned about recent form, but it was nice to see Patrick Reed get back on track after his bout with pneumonia that placed him in the hospital.
- Favorite GPP Play: Harris English ($7,800), Jason Kokrak $7,700 -Ownership is reduced on both players at this moment. Anything sub-15% is worth a look.
- Fade: Talor Gooch ($7,600) - Talor Gooch's recent form has created an overflow of early ownership. I will pass at 25%.
- Most Likely Winner: Patrick Reed ($7,900)
Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
Here are a few of my preferred $6,000 shots:
Cameron Champ $6,800, Phil Mickelson $6,500, Garrick Higgo $6,400 & Lucas Herbet $6,100
Win Big With RotoBaller
Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:
If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
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