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We have our biggest betting week of the year so far in Week 5, and Saturday will be one of the largest betting days of the year in terms of number of games to bet on. There are 61 total this week and we have no FCS matchups with the FBS boys this weekend. 57 of those games take place on Saturday! I'm going to make some ground up this week. I can feel it. There are a lot of spots I like.
Since this piece is new here at RotoBaller, I will fill you in on what's going to happen this year. I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top ten. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. So a score of 1 means that I have little to no confidence, and a score of 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points back from year to year.
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CFB Betting Picks Overview
As we all know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only. I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I am a simple man. I can't have that on my conscience. I've been waiting to bring this college football betting series over to RotoBaller since I started here back in February, so let's get to this!
I need to rebound from a rough weeks 3 and 4. I had a lot of low bets last week, which means I didn't have confidence in a lot of those games. I'm digging deeper this week to make sure I get out of the hole. And lets face it, after a month we know a lot more than we did on Labor Day. It's a process.
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(8)Arkansas at (2)Georgia(-18.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Well, no sense screwing around. We get right to it this week! Arkansas is getting zero respect for beating both Texas and Texas A&M already. Georgia wiped the floor with Vanderbilt and beat a questionable Clemson offense. Forgive me if I don't believe in them. I'm still riding the Razorbacks. This is a good team and this number is way too high. SOOOO-EEEEE!
(14)Michigan at Wisconsin(-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
No way. I'm confident enough in Graham Mertz making a back-breaking mistake to take Michigan outright. Cade McNamara may not be any better than Mertz, but he certainly doesn't make the critical errors. Michigan is playing strong defense and taking care of the ball. They win outright in Madison!
Tennessee at Missouri(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
If Missouri can lose to Boston College, they can lose to anyone. However, they don't usually do that in Columbia. I'll take Missouri at home, but my confidence in the 21 guys not named Tyler Badie is no longer there.
Charlotte at Illinois(-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That's a lot of points for an Illinois offense that is allergic to big plays. I expect this to play slow and go under 53. The spread is a little more tricky. This Illinois defense has been a solid unit all season. I don't like the half, but Charlotte wont be able to score at will like they did against Middle Tennessee State. Give me Illinois at home, but that offense makes me nervous.
Pittsburgh(-3.5) at Georgia Tech
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Pitt is coming off a school record for points last week with 77. The Wreck wrecked North Carolina and what was left of Sam Howell's Heisman hopes last weekend. Both teams are on the rise, but a defense like Pitt is still going to be tough to move the ball on. Kenny Pickett's experience will come in handy for Pitt here, but their inability to run the ball will be a problem. Give me the Wreck!
Duke at North Carolina(-19.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is a hell of a basketball schedule for Duke! As a football schedule, it's a little less impressive and interesting. I'm a big fan of Mataeo Durant and Gunner Holmberg has improved a lot in the last month. I'm not sure anyone on the Tarheels has. This feels high for a rivalry. Give me Duke. They wont win, but they'll hang around for a quarter or three.
Minnesota at Purdue(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Tanner Morgan is a huge liability for Minnesota. They lost at home to Bowling Green and are only three point dogs? Something feels off. The loss of Zander Horvath is a blow for Purdue, but this is still a solid offensive unit and Minnesota's defense isn't as good as Illinois is. Give me Purdue by at least a touchdown.
Toledo(-26.5) at Massachusetts
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Oh....the Rockets. They nearly snipe the Irish in South Bend, then get destroyed at home by a Colorado State team that is much better than they originally looked. They follow that up with an impressive defensive showing against Ball State. This still feels low. UMass is a really, really bad team. Give me Toledo.
Texas(-5.5) at TCU
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This is way too low. Casey Thompson has this Texas offense looking like it should. They hung 70 on an opponent for the first time since 2005 last week. They wont do that to the Toadies, but I could see them hitting 50. Texas is going to run off with this.
Memphis(-11.5) at Temple
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is too low. UTSA is a very good team, people. I promise! Give me Memphis.
Western Michigan(-6.5) at Buffalo
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Was Lance Leipold that big of a factor to the Bulls? It's certainly looking like it. I like Kaleb Eleby and the WMU receivers more than anything I've seen from the Bulls so far. Give me the Broncos. That defense is going to get after Buffalo.
Louisville at (24)Wake Forest(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Wake defense held their own against a pretty good Virginia team. Louisville is more of a balanced offense and Malik Cunningham is more of a dual threat than Brennan Armstrong. Wake has done a good job at not making mistakes this year. It's going to be close, but I'm still taking Wake at home.
Appalachian State(-9.5) at Georgia State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels a bit high for an Appalachian team that got tested by Marshall on the road against a team that was zebraed out of a win at Auburn. Give me the Panthers.
USC(-7.5) at Colorado
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Too low. Brendon Lewis is lost right now and so is the Colorado offense. Kedon Slovis to Drake London should be good for a double-digit win.
(7)Cincinnati(-1.5) at (9)Notre Dame
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Both teams have solid defenses that have had issues at times this year. This is a game Cincinnati can win, but their propensity for slow starts has me really nervous. This is a better team than the Badgers overall, but I'm still on the fence about this. There's no way I'm betting it, but I'm only going one point here. Give me Cincinnati.
Louisiana-Monroe at (16)Coastal Carolina(-34.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Wow, that's a lot! The Warhawks just won outright against Troy. They're in no danger of winning here, but this feels too high. Give me Monroe.
Eastern Michigan at Northern Illinois(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I guess this is accurate. The Huskies took down Georgia Tech a month ago, but the Wreck are better now than they were then. EMU has padded their stats against two of the worst FBS teams in UMass and Texas State. I'll take the Huskies at home.
(12)Mississippi at (1)Alabama(-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Ole Miss put 40 on Alabama last year in Oxford and still lost by 20. I'll take the Tide.
(3)Oregon(-7.5) at Stanford
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Cardinal are probably going to put on another solid showing in front of their home crowd, but I don't see them keeping this within 10. Oregon will pull away like UCLA did. Stanford will at least make it respectable now where they may not have a month ago.
(4)Oklahoma(-11.5) at Kansas State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is our kryptonite. The Sooners are tired of losing to K-State (and they should be). Still, until the Oklahoma offensive line starts playing better, we aren't covering a line like this. Give me Kansas State.
(11)Ohio State(-14.5) at Rutgers
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
We know that Kyle McCord will play well enough if C.J. Stroud can't go. I also know the Rutgers offense is still a work in progress. I don't like the half, but I still think Ohio State covers.
Troy at South Carolina(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is all over the place. I've seen it as high as 9.5 and as low as 5. I don't know what to do with it either, but considering Troy just lost to Monroe and the Cocks nearly took out Kentucky, it seems easy. Give me the Gamecocks.
Florida International at Florida Atlantic(-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
In a rivalry? Too many. Give me FIU.
Syracuse at Florida State(-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I don't know about this. Florida State is 0-4 for the first time since 1974 and doesn't seem to be improving. Inconsistent quarterback play is the only thing keeping me from fully backing the Orange. Florida State has speed on offense, which is a problem for Syracuse. I'll take the Seminoles at home, but I don't feel good about it.
Texas Tech at West Virginia(-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels low considering how well the West Virginia defense has played. Give me the Mountaineers.
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I don't know....this feels high. The Navy defense played their best game of the season last week. Is that enough? I really have no idea. Give me UCF, but I have no confidence in it.
Tulane(-3.5) at East Carolina
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I like the Pirates and they usually play well at home, but this is a tough Tulane team. I think I have to ride the Wave here.
Central Michigan at Miami(OH)(EVEN)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I haven't seen this line as high as -2 for either side. Vegas has little idea what to do with this, and I don't really blame them. Central Michigan had to reinstate last year's starter, Daniel Richardson, to pull out a win against FIU. The Redhawks? They beat Long Island, got obliterated by Cincinnati, run over by Army, and lost to Minnesota. I have to go CMU. Lew Nichols could be in for a big game here.
Ohio(-9.5) at Akron
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm surprised the spread is this low. Ohio is not a good team, but they aren't at the bottom of the MAC either. I'll take the Bobcats.
Bowling Green at Kent State(-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Wow, what does that say about Minnesota? Matt McDonald had the best game of his career and the Bowling Green defense looked good in Minneapolis. I'm going to say this is too high. Give me the Falcons.
Nevada at Boise State(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Boise's inability to run the ball will be a problem at some point, but probably not here. Nevada did beat Cal, but they didn't look good doing it. I'll take Boise on the Smurf Turf, but I wouldn't be shocked if they lost either.
South Florida at SMU(-21.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I really don't like that half. USF controlled the clock and kept BYU off the field. That might not work against SMU. This is a high-powered offense. I'm lowering the bet because of that half, but I'm not going against the Ponies in Dallas.
Arkansas State at Georgia Southern(-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line might be even by kickoff. Gerald Green ran wild on the Cajuns last week. Which Arkansas State team will we get? The one that almost beat Memphis or the one that is still trying to extract themselves from Husky Stadium's turf? Give me the Eagles. At least I know what to expect from them.....
Army(-9.5) at Ball State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Cardinals offense was a mess last week against Toledo. I have to think Army can control them as well. Give me Army.
Washington State at California(-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Neither team has looked good, so I really don't see either one winning by more than one score. Give me Washington State.
(10)Florida(-7.5) at Kentucky
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Wildcats are explosive, but if they continue to have ball security issues, Florida is going to destroy them. The game from Emory Jones last week has me believing that the Gators can still be a strong team. Florida has the team speed to keep up with Wan'Dale Robinson and Josh Ali. I get home field advantage and all, but Florida has been the much better team this year. I'm taking the Gators.
Louisiana Tech at (23)North Carolina State(-18.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is too many. Even if the Wolfpack don't have a bit of a letdown here, the Bulldogs can score points. The Wolfpack would rather grind this out anyway. I'll take La Tech. They wont win outright, but this is too many points.
UNLV at UTSA(-21.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line has jumped four points already and might not stop. I like it less when it's this high, but there's no way I'm going against my Roadrunners. MEEP MEEP!
Southern Mississippi at Rice(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Uh......no. USM straight up. Texas beat Rice by more than Alabama beat Southern Miss by.
Air Force(-11.5) at New Mexico
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The biggest oxymoron in college football gets to beat on the Lobos this week. This is way too low. Haaziq Daniels could cover this by himself!
Mississippi State at (15)Texas A&M(-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Bulldogs' defense isn't so bad themselves. I see A&M winning this, but their offense is very one-dimensional with Zach Calzada running the show. I don't think the Leaches win, but I don't think they get covered either. Give me the Bulldogs.
(21)Baylor at (19)Oklahoma State(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This feels low. Oklahoma State is hitting it's stride. Spencer Sanders and Tay Martin are finally healthy and Jaylen Warren is exactly the kind of back that works in this offense. It's going to be a rough one for the Bears. Give me Oklahoma State.
Marshall(-10.5) at Middle Tennessee State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I was impressed with Chase Cunningham for the Blue Raiders, but I was much more impressed with what the Herd did in Boone last weekend. That half has me lowering the bet, but MTSU isn't there yet. Give me Marshall.
Liberty at UAB(-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is going to be a fun one to watch, but there isn't much on Liberty that scares me aside from Malik Willis. Dylan Hopkins looked good running this UAB offense and it's business as usual on defense. I'll take the Blazers at home.
Kansas at Iowa State(-34.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Too many. Iowa State isn't built to cover spreads like this and Kansas has some athletes. They don't really play well together yet, but there has been marked improvement even if it doesn't show up on the scoreboard. Give me the Jayhawks not to get covered.
Indiana at (4)Penn State(-12.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Penn State is good enough to cover this, but I really don't feel like they will. Give me the Hoosiers. They wont win, but they should hang around.
Western Kentucky at (17)Michigan State(-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Hilltoppers are fun to watch, but this is going to be a really tough game for them. The Michigan State defense is very good and the offense doesn't make mistakes. Indiana made enough mistakes for WKU to hang around at home. Michigan State wont and they're at home. Give me the Spartans.
Boston College at (25)Clemson(-15.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I really don't trust that Clemson offense. Give me Boston College.
Connecticut at Vanderbilt(-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Stay far away from this, betting or otherwise. How bad is this? This will be the first game that is available on my cable package that I wont watch this year, and it might be the last. Give me UConn. I wouldn't be shocked if they won outright.
Northwestern at Nebraska(-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Nebraska defense is a whole lot better than they were in week 0. They get after you. Northwestern's defense might be the weakest unit under Pat Fitzgerald. I'm still not all that impressed with the Nebraska offense and Northwestern has a long history of giving them trouble, but this is not the same Northwestern team we're used to seeing. I'll take Nebraska.
Louisiana(-12.5) at South Alabama
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Cajuns defense had problems with North Texas last week. I'll take the Jags at home. They wont win outright, but they'll hang around.
(22)Auburn at LSU(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Yeah, this is too low. The Auburn offense isn't great right now. Bo Nix is regressing and he never played well on the road anyway. LSU by double digits!
Old Dominion at UTEP(-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
What? The Miners are favored? Nice going guys! They are the better team, but winning by a touchdown could be a tough ask. I'll take UTEP, but lower the bet.
Washington at Oregon State(-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Huskies opened as four-point favorites, but the public is hammering the Beavers. Who can blame them? Some of the craziest games in Pac 12 history have taken place under the lights at Reser Stadium. Chance Nolan is looking good leading this team and B.J. Baylor is proving to be a really good back. This is not the same Washington team that lost to Montana, but that defense still has issues. Give me Oregon State.
Arizona State at (20)UCLA(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It's prove-it time for the Sun Devils. They haven't played like they are capable of yet. I'm beginning to wonder if they really have it in them or not. If this were in Tempe, I might take Sparky, but I'm still going with UCLA at home.
New Mexico State at San Jose State(-27.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Aggies are bad, but San Jose State might not be much better. This is not the Spartans team that caught lightning in a bottle last year. Ugh.....there's no way I bet this. I guess I'll go SJSU at home just because they can cover this without throwing a pass if they really wanted to.
(18)Fresno State(-10.5) at Hawaii
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This feels low. Bulldogs roll!
Almost half of my bets (30 out of 61) are two-pointers this week, but I went heavier at the top. My five five-point bets is the most of the season so far and I ended up with five four-pointers as well. I plan on making up some ground. I only ended up with 13 three-point bets and went light with eight one-pointers. There are a lot I'm on the fence about, but I do feel good about the higher bets this week proceed with caution.....
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