X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Champ or Chump: What to Make of Conforto, Gray, and Ray

At this point in the year, all fantasy teams fall into one of three categories. There's the winner, the team that built an insurmountable lead in a rotisserie or points format or clinched a H2H playoff spot. If that is you, congratulations! Then there's the also-ran, the team that nothing went right for all season. If that is you, I'm sorry.

Then there's the fringe, the team that could still win if the last month goes especially well. If that is you, read on! Below I profile three names who I think could a tremendous asset for the rest of this year, with less than 30% ownership on FleaFlicker. They carry some risk, but fringe teams are not going to reach the promised land by playing it safe now. On to the names!

Editor's Note: Purchase a full season NFL Premium Pass (including Draft Kit + DFS Premium), and also get MLB Premium + DFS for free through October. Premium DFS lineup picks, expert lineups, tools and more - seven days a week. You can see screenshots of our NFL Premium and MLB Premium and DFS tools. What are you waiting for?

The Fantasy Jury Is Out

Michael Conforto (OF, NYM)

In a Champ or Chump first, Conforto is being profiled without being on the MLB roster. His .218/.297/.414 triple slash line doesn't look special, and 11 big flies aren't enough to change the equation. He looked promising last year with a .270/.335/.506 line and nine dingers in 194 PAs, but most fantasy owners (and the Mets) seem to have moved on. He's owned in only 17% of FleaFlicker leagues.

A large part of the problem is a 26% K%, a number that I frankly do not buy into at all. It was 20.1% a year ago, and his current SwStr% of 10% supports the latter far more than the former. He posted a 9% SwStr% last season, but the increase in whiff rate has occurred entirely outside of the strike zone (61.4% O-Contact% down to 58.7% this year). His Z-Contact% remains stable (87.2% to 87.7% this year). He is chasing a few more bad pitches, as his O-Swing% jumped from 24% to 28%, but 28% is still a strong showing. His 9.3% BB% is believable as a result.

His batting average should rise as the Ks dwindle, but that is not the only reason to expect it to go up. Conforto sports a BABIP of .261 in the majors this year, 40 points below the league average. One of the culprits is a low 18.3% LD%, a disappointment after a 22.6% rate last year. The league average is 21%, and Conforto has not proven that his baseline should be otherwise yet. Conforto's grounders have also disappointed with a .174 mark despite owning a reasonable batting average against the shift (.262), so there could be room for improvement there as well. Conforto's minor league history and brief MLB time last year suggest that he should be a .290-.300 BABIP guy, so it should regress in his favor over the final month.

Conforto's power, in terms of HR/FB, has regressed to 12.6% this year after sitting at 17% a year ago. This was predictable, but 12.6% still suggests plus power. Conforto has also hit an absurd number of fly balls this season, sporting a FB% of 45.5%. He's pulling a fair number of them too, 20.7% to be precise. If the Mets play him in September (he should be a September call up), a eight HR month is not out of the question with this profile. With only uninspiring alternatives such as Alejandro De Aza and Justin Ruggiano standing in his way, it says here that he sees the field.

For what it's worth, Conforto is absolutely raking at Triple-A (.423/.480/.748 with eight bombs in 123 PAs). Las Vegas is in the notoriously hitter friendly PCL, but those numbers still stand out. Conforto detractors may point to his dreadful MLB performance vs. LHP (.109/.160/.130) as a reason to stay away, but a sporadic 50 PA sample size is not enough to take as gospel.  I definitely want Conforto on my roster to close out the year.

Verdict: Champ

Jon Gray (SP, COL)

For years, fantasy owners have lived by one commandment: Thou shalt not roster Colorado pitchers. Gray's surface stats (8-6, 4.61 ERA) do nothing to challenge this axiom, but his underlying 3.66 xFIP and 25.5% K% might. It's risky, but Gray could have the upside to save your fantasy season if everything breaks right. That's more value than you can get out of most arms available in 74% of FleaFlicker leagues.

Gray's slider is the reason you want him in fantasy. Its 24.2% SwStr%, 50.1% chase rate, and .177/.198/.260 triple slash line against are all nothing short of spectacular. Better yet, Gray is using it more than he ever has before. Already a solid part of the repertoire with 19.2% usage last season, it is up to 26.9% this year. That is what fantasy owners want to see!

The slider's increased usage is part of a completely reworked pitch selection by Gray. He is also throwing fewer fastballs (63.3% to 56.3%) and changeups (17.1% to 7.7%) in favor of a brand new curve (9.1%) in addition to more sliders. The change seems to be benefiting from being thrown less often (9.6% SwStr% last year, 11.2% this), but the curve is underwhelming from a strikeout perspective (8.5% SwStr%, 17.6% chase rate). The curve has been pretty good after being put in play (.233/.258/.400), but its 35% FB% makes me question its long term viability at Coors Field. Neither fastball looks like anything too special just yet.

As a result, Gray is kind of a one pitch pitcher--but boy is it a good pitch! Gray's slider is so dominant that his current performance likely represents his floor, even with Coors in the equation. A slight K% increase can be expected based on all of the unqualified minor leaguers about to be called up, and it could skyrocket if the change or curve becomes a legitimate second weapon.

Traditional luck stats also suggest that Gray's ERA could improve. His 66.7% strand rate is below the league average of 72%, while his strikeout rate is high enough to support a plus mark. His .301 BABIP against and 13.4% HR/FB also seem high, though Coors Field is probably impacting both. Gray has a solid prospect pedigree and remains young enough to improve overnight, so he is worthy of an add if you need help in the pitching categories.

Verdict: Champ

Robbie Ray (SP, ARI)

What if I told you that there was another pitcher available on waivers in at least 70% of FleaFlicker leagues with a better K% than Gray. He also doesn't call Coors home, though it is in his division. His 7-12 record and 4.28 ERA don't look like much, but Robbie Ray's 3.30 xFIP and 28.3% K% should not be available on waivers this time of year.

Unlike Gray, Ray hasn't changed his pitch selection much at all. He is throwing more 2-seamers (9.4% to 15.6%) and less 4-seamers (62.6% to 56.1%), but PITCHf/x has a hard time differentiating the two. Instead, Ray's K% has surged thanks to a velocity uptick. His fastball has gained .7 mph to hit an average velocity of 94 so far this year, while his 2-seamer is up 1.3 mph to reach 93.8. Both have seen an increased SwStr% as a result, the 4-seamer up to 9% from 7.1% and the 2-seamer to 8.9% from 6.1%. Both numbers are quite strong for their respective pitch type.

They complement a strong slider that is almost the equal of Gray's. Its 19.2% SwStr% and 42.1% chase rate are enough to highlight any strikeout pitcher's arsenal, and its strong 62% GB% is also nice to see from an Arizona hurler. When opponents actually manage to hit it, its .195/.241/.331 triple slash line against is also pretty impressive. The pitch's only weakness is a 34.7% Zone%.

That is where the heaters come in. They both spend a lot of time in the zone despite their improved whiff rates, as the 4-seamer sports a Zone% of 56.4% while the 2-seamer checks in at 53.6%. Ideally, Ray could develop one more weapon to really keep hitters guessing. That weapon will not be the change he is currently throwing, as its 28.3% Zone% and 28.1% chase rate add up to a wasted pitch. If he refines another offering, Ray's balanced arsenal could lead to a higher upside than Gray's.

Ray has been the recipient of some rather unfortunate luck, as a 14.8% HR/FB is bad while a .354 BABIP against is horrid. Chase Field has something to do with the HR/FB, but the BABIP should regress moving forward. His 72.4% LOB% is league average, but could climb a tad higher with all of Ray's Ks. He might even be in line for more wins with the excellent AJ Pollock returning to the team. Grab him already!

Verdict: Champ

 

Live Expert Q&A Chats - Every Weekday @ 1 PM and 6 PM EST (DFS)

Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-55" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]

 

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Dealing With a "Tweak"
NHL

Alexandar Georgiev Joins Sabres on One-Year Deal
Corey Perry

Injured During Pre-Camp Skate
Kyle Larson

Can Kyle Larson Dominate at Bristol Again?
Denny Hamlin

One of the Best at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

All Eyes on Ryan Blaney at Bristol
Chase Briscoe

Whiffs in Qualifying, Will Start 31st in Bristol Night Race
Ty Gibbs

Could Contend at Bristol
AJ Allmendinger

on the Pole for Bristol Night Race
Tanner Bibee

Fans 10 in Two-Hit Shutout
Zach Neto

Dealing With Wrist Soreness
Masyn Winn

Shut Down for Rest of Season
Tarik Skubal

to Undergo Imaging on Saturday
Jacory Croskey-Merritt

RapSheet: Jacory Croskey-Merritt Expected to Be Lead Back Moving Forward
Tyler Soderstrom

Scratched on Friday With Groin Tightness
Tarik Skubal

Exits with Side Tightness
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
Ketel Marte

Scratched From Friday's Lineup
Brock Purdy

Officially Ruled Out Against Saints
Jauan Jennings

Given Questionable Tag for Week 2
CFB

CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
CFB

Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Dallas Goedert

Officially Ruled Out for Week 2
Xavier Worthy

Listed as Doubtful to Play in Week 2
Jayden Reed

Hopes to Return in November Following Surgery
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Kyle Tucker

"Unlikely" to Return When Eligible on Tuesday
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Ketel Marte

Expected to Return on Friday
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Quinshon Judkins

Questionable to Make NFL Debut in Week 2
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Alexander Hernandez

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Quang Le

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Card Opener
Santiago Luna

Set For His Debut At Noche UFC 3
Malcolm Brogdon

Heading to Knicks on One-Year Deal
CFB

David Sanders Jr. Won't Play Against Georgia
Landry Shamet

Staying with the Knicks
CFB

Dylan Edwards Slated to Return on Friday
Jacory Croskey-Merritt

Sees Little Usage in Week 2, Outlook Still Trending Upwards?
Deebo Samuel Sr.

Leads Commanders in Catches, Scores Touchdown Again
Tucker Kraft

Posts Huge Performance on Thursday
Joe Mixon

Lack of Joe Mixon Injury Updates Sparking Concern for Fantasy Managers?
Jayden Reed

Fractures Collarbone, Headed for Injured Reserve
Austin Ekeler

Commanders Fear Austin Ekeler Tore his Achilles
Jesús Luzardo

Jesus Luzardo Strikes Out 10 in Win
Aaron Judge

Matches Yankees Legend with Two-Homer Game
Austin Ekeler

Injured, Carried Off Field with Non-Contact Injury
Jayden Reed

Ruled Out with Shoulder Injury
Quinshon Judkins

Browns Insider Expects NFL to "Come Down Heavy" on a Quinshon Judkins Suspension
Jayden Reed

Questionable to Return on TNF With Shoulder Injury
Anthony Volpe

Playing Through Partially Torn Labrum in his Shoulder
Adam Lowry

Aims for Early-Season Return
Charles Oliveira

Not Eyeing Retirement
Tyreek Hill

Chiefs, Steelers Eyeing a Trade for Tyreek Hill?
CFB

Ryan Williams Expected to Play Against Wisconsin
CFB

Billy Edwards Jr. Unlikely to Play on Saturday
P.J. Washington

Officially Signs Contract Extension
CFB

David Sanders Jr. Questionable to Make Debut Against Georgia
Chris Godwin

to Be Limited in His Return Thursday
Brock Purdy

Out 2-5 Weeks With Turf Toe
Lauri Markkanen

Big at Both Ends as Finland Books Place in EuroBasket Semis
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Notches 39 Points in Losing Effort
NBA

Cam Reddish Expected to Move to Europe
NBA

Trey Lyles Joins Real Madrid
Kyle Monangai

to See More Carries Going Forward?
Charles Bassey

Signs Exhibit 10 Deal With Hawks
Sacramento Kings

Terence Davis Waived by Kings
Will Smith

Scratched With Hand Soreness on Wednesday
Ketel Marte

has Foot Contusion, Expected to Play Friday
Shohei Ohtani

Won't Pitch This Weekend
MacKenzie Gore

to Start on Thursday
Ketel Marte

Exits Early on Wednesday
Matthew Knies

Ready for Bigger Role With Maple Leafs
Jack Eichel

Unbothered by Lack of Extension
Sidney Crosby

Not Thinking About Leaving Pittsburgh
SJ

Michael Misa Signs Entry-Level Contract With Sharks
Rutger McGroarty

Nursing an Injury
Anthony Rizzo

Retires
Cameron Champ

the Ultimate Wild Card at Procore
Cameron Young

Looks to Extend Momentum in Napa
Davis Thompson

Searching for a Spark at Procore
Sahith Theegala

Looking to Reignite Form at Procore
Mackenzie Hughes

Aims for Another Strong Showing at Procore
Luke Clanton

Brings Ball-Striking Upside to Napa
Seamus Power

Looking to Overcome Poor Course History at Procore
Joe Highsmith

Hoping to Find Form in Napa
Masyn Winn

Will Require Offseason Knee Surgery
Kristaps Porzingis

Reportedly Still Not Completely Healthy
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Reportedly on the Trade Block
Andre Drummond

Future in Philadelphia in Doubt
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Helps Greece Reach Semis at EuroBasket
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Posts Historic Triple-Double
Joel Dahmen

Finishes Tied For 15 at Wyndham Championship
Bud Cauley

Finishes Tied for 33rd at BMW Championship
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied for Seventh at Tour Championship
J.J. Spaun

Finishes Tied for 25th at Tour Championship
Collin Morikawa

Finishes Tied for 19th at Tour Championship
Keith Mitchell

Misses Cut at Wyndham Championship
Ben Griffin

Finishes Tied for 10th at Tour Championship
Patrick Cantlay

Finishes Tied for Second at Tour Championship
Gary Woodland

Could Hang Around at Procore Championship
Ranger Suárez

Ranger Suarez Strikes Out 12, Earns 12th Win on Tuesday
Karl Vilips

Ready for Napa Valley This Weekend
Taylor Montgomery

Heating Up at the Right Time
Jackson Koivun

May Be a Little Rusty at Procore Championship
Doug Ghim

Looking to Rise Up at Napa Valley
Josh Giddey

Re-Signs With Bulls for Four Years
Shakir Mukhamadullin

Joins Informal Skate
William Eklund

Skates With Sharks
Owen Power

Back at 100 Percent
Tyler Seguin

Cleared for Action
Mathew Barzal

Good to Go for Season Opener
Will Smith

Returns to Dodgers Lineup on Tuesday
Dustin Wolf

Signs Seven-Year Extension
NBA

Mason Jones Takes His Talents to Australia
NBA

Talen Horton-Tucker Joins Reigning EuroLeague Champions
Malcolm Brogdon

on Knicks' Radar
Andrew Wiggins

Attracting Interest From Lakers
Miami Heat

Heat Interested in Reunion With Precious Achiuwa
New York Knicks

Ben Simmons Reportedly Declined Knicks' Contract Offer
Elias Pettersson

Feeling "Good" Ahead of Season
NHL

Alex Formenton Rejoins Swiss Team
NHL

Grigori Denisenko Heads Back Home
CAR

Kevin Labanc Joins Hurricanes for Tryout
Ross Colton

Healthy for Start of Season
Caio Borralho

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Nassourdine Imavov

Extends Win Streak
Mauricio Ruffy

Gets Submitted
Benoît Saint Denis

Benoit Saint Denis Taps Out Mauricio Ruffy
Paul Craig

Retires After UFC Paris Loss
Denny Hamlin

Earns his First Cup Victory at Gateway
Kyle Larson

Damage Ruins Kyle Larson's Chance At a Top Finish at Gateway
Christopher Bell

Scores his Third Top-10 Finish at Gateway
Joey Logano

Maintains his Perfect Top-Five Streak at Gateway
Ryan Blaney

Struggles and Recovers for a Top-Five Finish at Gateway
Modestas Bukauskas

Scores First-Round Knockout
Bolaji Oki

Suffers Second-Round TKO Loss
Mason Jones

Scores Comeback Win
Chase Elliott

Gets Lucky but Still Has Best Run at Gateway
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Wins Stage 2, but Was Let Down by Strategy
Tyler Reddick

Despite Bad Luck, Tyler Reddick Does What he Needed to Do
Chase Briscoe

Recovers from Incident with Daniel Suarez to Finish Second
William Byron

Late Caution Foils William Byron's Shot at Gateway Victory
Ryan Blaney

Should Contend at Gateway
Denny Hamlin

Fastest in Qualifying, the Favorite to Win at Gateway
Christopher Bell

Looking for Redemption at Gateway
Joey Logano

Has Been Elite at Gateway

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP