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Sean Wrona - RotoBaller

975 articles

I ran the auto racing statistical archive race-database.com from 2007 to 2015 and have been doing advanced auto racing analytics since 2013, mostly on my website Racermetrics. I was generally regarded as the fastest typist in the world throughout the 2010s, being most famous for winning the Ultimate Typing Championship at the South by Southwest Interactive conference in 2010. In 2021, I released my first book, Nerds per Minute: A History of Competitive Typing. I am currently doing research for a second book where I intend to rank the top 1,000 drivers in motorsports history and have built several statistical models to rank drivers across various motorsports series. I have just recently launched a blog at http://seanwrona.substack.com/ where I am releasing one driver capsule a day for my book if you are interested in subscribing. I earned a BA in Economics and an MPS in Applied Statistics from Cornell University in 2007 and 2008 respectively. I also am an expert-rated tournament Scrabble player. In high school, I was the statistician for the Mensa Scrabble-by-Mail Special Interest Group and wrote a 15-20 page column in that group's newsletter every other month. As you can see, I've been at this for a quarter century already.

Articles

Martin Truex Jr. Uncompetitive In Duel Race But Still Makes Daytona 500

Martin Truex Jr. had already advanced to the Daytona 500 on the basis of his qualifying time, thereby locking his Tricon Garage entry into the race, but he seldom factored into the first Duel race, where he started 12th, finished 15th, and rarely was anywhere near contention on a night his fellow Toyota drivers like […]


Justin Allgaier Advances To Daytona 500

Although it looked a little precarious for a moment, Justin Allgaier did advance to the Daytona 500 by finishing ninth in the first Duel race, finishing highest among the five non-chartered drivers to give his JR Motorsport team its first start in the NASCAR Cup Series. Although everyone expected him to advance over J.J. Yeley […]


Ty Dillon Surprisingly Battles For The Win In First Duel Race

Although Ty Dillon has always been lightly regarded, he matched his best-ever NASCAR Cup Series finish of third on his full-time debut with Kaulig Racing in Thursday's first Duel race. He has had moments on drafting tracks before and earned both of his top-five finishes in point races at Daytona and Talladega and even earned […]


B.J. McLeod Doesn't Have The Speed To Make The Daytona 500

After selling his charter to Live Fast Motorsports, B.J. McLeod finished 17th in Thursday's second Duel race and suffered his second consecutive DNQ in the Daytona 500, which hardly came as a surprise. Even with the estimated $40 million he received from selling his charter, Live Fast still does not have a great deal of […]


J.J. Yeley Misses Second Straight Daytona 500

Although J.J. Yeley initially looked like a long shot to advance into the Daytona 500, considering he drives for the historically subpar NY Racing Team, Yeley ran surprisingly well in the first duel race as he and Justin Allgaier ran together for large portions of the event and Yeley was even ahead for a while […]


Chase Briscoe Earns Toyota's First Daytona 500 Pole

Chase Briscoe kicked off his Joe Gibbs Racing stint with a bang by unexpectedly winning the pole for Sunday's Daytona 500, earning Toyota's first pole in the Great American Race since the marque entered the NASCAR Cup Series in 2007. Although on the surface this might appear surprising, Briscoe previously won the pole for the […]


Justin Allgaier Attempts To Make JR Motorsports's NASCAR Cup Series Debut

After winning a long-overdue NASCAR Xfinity Championship in 2024 for JR Motorsports, Justin Allgaier was rewarded by getting the opportunity to drive JRM's first-ever NASCAR Cup Series entry for next Sunday's Daytona 500 in the No. 40 car, sponsored for this race by country star Chris Stapleton's Traveller Whiskey brand. Although he only qualified 33rd […]


Jimmie Johnson Outqualifies Teammates To Advance To Daytona 500

Jimmie Johnson clinched a spot in Sunday's Daytona 500 by qualifying 29th in Daytona 500 qualifying on Wednesday evening, which ranked second among drivers for non-chartered teams. Johnson's qualifying run was impressive, as he outqualified both of his full-time drivers Erik Jones and John Hunter Nemechek while tying his Toyota stablemate Bubba Wallace in qualifying, […]


B.J. McLeod Likely Needs Attrition To Make Daytona 500

Although B.J. McLeod missed last year's Daytona 500 after he sold his Live Fast Motorsports charter to Spire Motorsports at the end of the 2023 season, he's trying to qualify for the race again this year, but his odds likely aren't much better. He qualified only 43rd in yesterday's qualifying session and posted by far […]


Competition In First Duel Race Likely Too Stout For Chandler Smith To Make Daytona 500

Although Chandler Smith was undeservedly demoted from the Xfinity Series to the Craftsman Truck Series in 2025, he got another opportunity to enter the Daytona 500 this year but seems unlikely to qualify for the second straight year, particularly after his car chief was ejected when the No. 66 team failed inspection. Now driving for […]


Tyler Reddick Lacks Speed Of Other Championship 4 Contenders But Drives Well

Tyler Reddick finished fourth in the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs after finishing sixth in the season finale at Phoenix. He spent most of the race in the back half of the top ten and never really had the speed of even William Byron, let alone Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney, who were the two fastest […]


William Byron Finishes Third In Phoenix Race And Championship

William Byron was arguably lucky to make it to the final round of the NASCAR playoffs at Phoenix on Sunday after Christopher Bell was penalized last week at Martinsville, but he did his best and posed a stout challenge to Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney, the Penske drivers who finished first and second in the […]


Daniel Suarez Once Again Far Off Ross Chastain's Pace At Phoenix

Even though Daniel Suarez made the playoffs and Ross Chastain did not, Suarez has been shockingly slow at times this season and his speed percentile of 39.06 is a massive 27 points off of Chastain's 66.29. This trend continued in Phoenix qualifying yesterday after Suarez qualified 34th while Chastain (who won last year's race) was […]


John Hunter Nemechek Consistently Mediocre At Phoenix

John Hunter Nemechek has been very consistent in his previous races at Phoenix Raceway. Unfortunately, this is an example of how consistency isn't always a good thing. In his four previous NASCAR Cup Series starts at Phoenix, Nemechek has finished between 25th and 27th in all of them and has been nowhere near competitive. His […]


Michael McDowell Matches Worst Qualifying Run Of 2024 At His Home Track

Although he finished the 2024 season as the NASCAR Cup Series pole leader, Michael McDowell's qualifying run in his last race for Front Row Motorsports was quite the opposite as his 35th-place qualifying run matches his worst of the season from the spring Martinsville race. The poor qualifying run is rather puzzling, as McDowell's last […]


Jimmie Johnson Faster Than Usual In Qualifying

Jimmie Johnson is arguably the second-greatest Phoenix driver of all time behind only Kevin Harvick, but all four of his wins came at the height of his championship power run in 2007-2009 and he has not raced there since the 2020 season finale, his last race as a full-time driver where he did manage his […]


Daniel Hemric May Overachieve At Phoenix To Help Land 2025 Offer

Daniel Hemric delivered his all-time career highlight when he won the 2021 NASCAR Xfinity Series championship at Phoenix and scored his only national series win in so doing, but in the NASCAR Cup Series, he hasn't been so hot. Although he has earned two top twenty finishes, he has never finished better than 17th for […]


Justin Haley Earns Best Starting Position At Phoenix

Justin Haley qualified 13th for Sunday's race at Phoenix, beating both of his Spire Motorsports teammates Carson Hocevar and Zane Smith. Although Haley has finished all seven of his previous races at Phoenix, he has only finished better than 24th once, when he finished 17th in the March 2022 event. It is possible that his […]


Noah Gragson Closes Out Stewart-Haas Racing Career With Average Qualifying Run

Noah Gragson qualified 21st for Stewart-Haas Racing's last ever race at Phoenix on Sunday. He was actually pretty fast there in the spring event as he started seventh, finished 12th, matched his best average running position of the season, and had his fifth-best driver rating. Nonetheless, it seems like he's gone through the motions somewhat […]


Todd Gilliland Lacks Speed This Weekend

Todd Gilliland qualified a lackluster 32nd in a race where his outgoing Front Row Motorsports teammate Michael McDowell qualified an even worse 35th. Gilliland had speed in the March event at Phoenix, where he led the only 14 laps for a non-Toyota driver after long-pitting, although he faded to 17th at the end. Besides that […]


Austin Dillon Sometimes Fast On Short Tracks, But Not At Phoenix

Austin Dillon's only good runs seem to happen at shorter ovals these days, such as his sixth-place finish at Gateway, his win at Richmond, and last week's seventh-place finish at Martinsville, although he was stripped of 50 points in that race for following Chevrolet's manufacturer orders to stay behind William Byron to help him advance […]


Phoenix Is Kyle Busch's Last Chance To Extend Winning-Season Streak

Sunday's race at Phoenix marks Kyle Busch's last chance to extend his record streak of 19 consecutive winning seasons in the NASCAR Cup Series to 20. However, the odds of him doing that seem astronomically remote given that he starts 25th, and the Richard Childress Racing cars have not seemed to have winning speed on […]


Jeb Burton Returns To Cup Series With Dangerously Slow Team AmeriVet

Jeb Burton surprisingly makes his return to NASCAR Cup Series action with Team AmeriVet, which has not started a race since Ty Dillon drove for them in the Coca-Cola 600. Burton's No. 50 team failed inspection four times, was not allowed to set a qualifying time, and will have to serve a stop-and-go penalty under […]


Alex Bowman Has Rarely Shined At Phoenix Since His 2016 Breakout

Alex Bowman first attracted significant attention in the NASCAR Cup Series at Phoenix in 2016 when he won the pole and led 194 laps en route to a sixth-place finish. That race now stands out as an extremely bizarre outlier in his career as not only does that remain his highest laps led count, he […]


Speeding Penalty Foils Martin Truex Jr.'s Last Realistic Shot At Winning

Since Phoenix isn't really one of Martin Truex Jr.'s best tracks while Martinsville is, Sunday likely marked Truex's last chance to win in the NASCAR Cup Series. Although he won the pole and led the first 41 laps of the race, he sped on his first pit stop before later being involved in a crash […]


Denny Hamlin Fails To Advance To Championship 4 But Runs Well

After crashing in practice and not registering a qualifying time, Denny Hamlin's odds of advancing to the Championship 4 in the NASCAR playoffs were unbelievably remote entering the race, especially since he was below the playoff cut line and would likely have to win. Although his car was sufficiently repaired and he had speed, he […]


Shane van Gisbergen Earns Best Oval Finish at Martinsville

Shane van Gisbergen earned his best-ever oval finish in the NASCAR Cup Series in Sunday's race at Martinsville. Although he still didn't run very well since his average running position was 25th and he only had the 21st-best driver rating in a race where his teammate Daniel Hemric honestly ran better, he stayed out of […]


William Byron Tentatively In Championship 4 Pending Ruling On Manufacturer Orders

William Byron didn't necessarily need to win at Martinsville to advance to the Championship 4, but if a driver below the cutline won, Byron needed to overcome a 22-point deficit to Christopher Bell, which seemed unlikely. Byron ran well and led 51 laps but got overtaken by Kyle Larson on the lap 406 restart and […]


Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Slow To Contend At Martinsville

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has had a low-key bad season in the NASCAR Cup Series despite his win at Talladega, and it's hard to envision that changing at Martinsville, a track where he starts 28th, has never led a lap, and has never finished better than eighth. About the only good thing about Stenhouse's career at […]


John Hunter Nemechek May Be More Motivated At Martinsville If His Ride Is At Stake

There are unconfirmed rumors swirling that John Hunter Nemechek will be replaced for 2025 even though he is technically still signed for next year. While Corey Heim's Craftsman Truck Series success does suggest this could be a real possibility, the sources of the rumors don't seem very reliable. If Nemechek is on the hotseat, however, […]


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