Martin Truex Jr Had Steady Run, but Was Typically Foiled by Bad Luck at Nashville

Martin Truex Jr had a fairly anonymous race at Nashville by his standards, as he was the slowest Joe Gibbs Racing driver, but he didn't run badly either as he ranked sixth in speed and average running position despite being struck by bad luck--as usual. Although Truex ran in the back half of the top […]

Kyle Larson Takes Sole Possession of Points Lead After Consistent Yet Sloppy Drive

Kyle Larson delivered a typically strong performance in yesterday's race at Nashville to break his tie for the points lead with Chase Elliott and take a 20-point lead. Although Larson never led, he consistently ran in the top five for most of the race and ranked third behind Denny Hamlin and Tyler Reddick in speed, […]

Ross Chastain Wrecked Out at Nashville but Arguably Had Best Run of the Season

Although Ross Chastain spent most of yesterday's Ally 400 towards the back of the top twenty, his crew chief, Phil Surgen, made a brilliant strategy call to take two tires on the lap 220 caution, placing him in front of all the faster cars who took four tires. Most of the other drivers who stayed […]

Ryan Blaney Bails Out Team After Dubious Pit Strategy

Although Ryan Blaney started 18th and had a mediocre Stage 1 at Nashville, he worked into the top five just before Chase Elliott's first spin. Blaney's crew chief, Jonathan Hassler, elected to stay out of the pits, a move destined to fail as he would have needed to stretch his fuel mileage 113 laps to […]

Daniel Suarez Lacks Speed in Nashville Despite Recent Strong Runs

Although Daniel Suarez seemed to fall into complacency after his early-season photo-finish win at Atlanta locked him into the playoffs--as he is having by far his slowest season in a competitive car with a speed percentile of 36.99--he's finally showed some speed again in recent weeks with his first top-10 qualifying run of the year […]

Ricky Stenhouse Jr Probably Needs Strategy to Contend at Nashville

Although Ricky Stenhouse Jr has his career-worst speed percentile in the NASCAR Cup Series at 33.84 at the season's halfway point and is arguably having his most invisible season, he unexpectedly scored back-to-back top tens at Iowa and Loudon in the last two races. However, both finishes were primarily due to strategy rather than Stenhouse's […]

Michael McDowell Scores Best Qualifying Run at Nashville, but Will Likely Fade

Michael McDowell continues his best-ever season in terms of qualifying performance with a 14th-place run yesterday at Nashville while his teammate, Todd Gilliland, qualified a mere 32nd. Apparently, any speculation that Front Row Motorsports would shift its focus to Gilliland after McDowell announced his departure might have been premature. However, McDowell has not done a […]

Corey LaJoie's Recent Improvement May Pay Dividends at Nashville

Although Corey LaJoie was very disappointing for most of the first half of the season--particularly at Gateway where he had the second-slowest average speed in the race while his rookie teammate, Carson Hocevar, finished 8th--it seems that may have lit a fire under Lajoie, as in the three races since, he has exhibited more patience […]

Erik Jones Still Struggling for Speed after Talladega Crash

Erik Jones had a fairly miserable first half of the NASCAR Cup Series season as a result of Legacy Motor Club receiving less funding from Toyota than their other two teams, not to mention his injury at Talladega. Jones still has solid racecraft in terms of usually finishing better than he starts, as he has […]

Carson Hocevar Should Deliver Another Strong Run at Nashville

Carson Hocevar qualified 15th for today's race at Nashville, faster than both Spire Motorsports teammates again despite no past experience in the NASCAR Cup Series at this track. He has been successful here in other series, though, as he won last year's Craftsman Truck Series race, although he crashed in the following day's Xfinity Series […]

Riley Herbst Too Inexperienced to Contend at Nashville

Riley Herbst starts 30th at Nashville on Sunday, ahead of his teammate Justin Haley, but Haley did qualify faster than Herbst. Although Herbst has already collected two top-10s in the NASCAR Cup Series, those came in drafting races where slower teams like Herbst's Rick Ware Racing can more easily compete. Haley has had surprisingly consistent […]

Corey Heim Should Benefit From Faster 23XI Toyotas at Nashville

Corey Heim makes his first start in the NASCAR Cup Series for 23XI Racing in this afternoon's Nashville race after two previous starts for Legacy Motor Club while subbing for the injured Erik Jones earlier this season. It's reasonable to expect a better result from him in this race than in his previous starts at […]

Bubba Wallace Falls Below Playoff Cut Line After Noah Gragson Wrecked Him

Bubba Wallace had a mediocre albeit decent run at New Hampshire yesterday. Although he never factored for the lead unlike his teammate, Tyler Reddick, he ran in the top 10 for much of Stage 2, but usually ran between 11th and 20th until he was eliminated in a crash when Noah Gragson spun out while […]

Joey Logano Crashed, but Still Moves Above Playoffs Cut Line

Although Joey Logano never led during yesterday's New Hampshire race, he ran in the top five consistently except for pit stop exchanges until he spun out Chase Elliott to trigger the fifth caution of the race while they were battling for 11th behind a number of drivers who had either stayed out of the pits […]

Denny Hamlin Won Stage 2, but Struggled in the Rain at New Hampshire

Denny Hamlin had a solid run at New Hampshire despite finishing 24th and his teammates, Christopher Bell and Martin Truex, Jr., outperforming him. Hamlin utilized some characteristically nifty strategy from his crew chief, Chris Gabehart, to stay out of the pits on the second caution when most of the other leaders pitted. Since passing was […]

Kyle Busch's Playoffs in Doubt After Crashing Thrice

Kyle Busch had one of his sloppiest races ever at New Hampshire yesterday as he crashed three times. After shockingly being lapped in Stage 1, Busch broke loose into Noah Gragson, spinning both drivers out to initiate the race's third caution. He then spun out just before the rain arrived after a failed block of […]

Ricky Stenhouse Jr Uncharacteristically Slow This Year, but May Regress to the Mean

Ricky Stenhouse Jr starts 13th at New Hampshire, a track where he has earned two top-10 finishes but none since 2016. Stenhouse led three laps in last year's race after staying out of the pits during the first caution, but he was immediately passed by William Byron on the restart. Stenhouse is still on pace […]

John Hunter Nemechek Hopes to Finish First NASCAR Cup Series Race at New Hampshire

John Hunter Nemechek has only made one start in the NASCAR Cup Series at New Hampshire during his 2020 rookie season when he finished 36th after a crash. However, he has run significantly better in other NASCAR divisions since, most notably when he won last year's Xfinity Series race there and led 137 laps. However, […]

Lack of Toyota Support Will Probably Foil Erik Jones's Effort at New Hampshire

Erik Jones starts 32nd at New Hampshire in this weekend's race. He's had some strong runs at this track in the past, as he earned two top 10s and even a third-place finish in the years he drove for Joe Gibbs Racing, the team that tends to dominate there. However, Jones has been noticeably slow […]

Noah Gragson Unlikely to Contend at New Hampshire, but Will Likely Improve Upon Last Year

Noah Gragson starts 21st for this weekend's USA Today 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in Loudon. Although the Stewart-Haas Racing cars tend to be faster on shorter ovals than speedways in recent years, Loudon is not one of Gragson's best tracks, as in last year's race he only ranked 30th in speed and even […]

Austin Dillon May Be a Dark Horse at New Hampshire After Strong Run at Gateway

Austin Dillon will be starting 22nd at New Hampshire and you wouldn't think he'd be a top contender in this race when considering he only ranks 30th of 35 regular drivers in speed and his speed percentile on the four short superspeedways this year has been even worse. However, Dillon finished 9th in last year's […]

Harrison Burton Not a Master at His Father's Best Track

Harrison Burton ranks next to last in average speed in the four short track races this season ahead of only Kaz Grala. Although he's never been better than mediocre in the Cup Series to begin with, he tends to run even worse on shorter ovals than on other tracks. Burton has finished both Loudon races […]

Tyler Reddick Unlucky at Iowa, but Still a Relative Non-Factor Before That

Tyler Reddick had a relatively mediocre run by his standards last night at Iowa, which doesn't come as much of a surprise since the Toyotas were slow in the race, not to mention that short tracks tend to be arguably Reddick's weakest track type. Reddick was unlucky as he got trapped a lap down when […]

Kyle Larson Made Electrifying Charge Through Field at Iowa Until Late Race Crash

Kyle Larson had another electrifying drive in yesterday's inaugural Iowa Corn 350 until being caught up in a crash when Daniel Suárez spun him into Denny Hamlin. Larson won his fourth pole of the season and although eventual winner, Ryan Blaney, passed him a couple of times, Larson still had a 4-2 lead change record […]

Denny Hamlin Inexplicably Slow in Inaugural Iowa Race

Denny Hamlin shockingly had one of his worst runs in years in last night's Iowa race. Although he qualified 12th and was a pre-race favorite because he usually adapts well to rough track conditions and abrasive surfaces, as he did at Bristol, Hamlin rapidly fell through the pack and was surprisingly lapped multiple times on […]

Christopher Bell the Sole Bright Spot for Toyota at Iowa

In a race where Toyota badly struggled, Christopher Bell was the only bright spot for the manufacturer in last night's Iowa race. Bell rallied to a fourth-place finish while all three of his Joe Gibbs Racing teammates spent most of the race outside the top 15. He got trapped a lap down when he pitted […]

Ryan Preece Unlikely to Get Out of Slump at Iowa

Ryan Preece has had a miserable 2024 season to date and it seems likely that his future in the NASCAR Cup Series is in doubt since Stewart-Haas Racing is shutting down and Preece has been kept out of SHR's setup notes sessions this year. That could mean that Preece will be unusually motivated to prove […]

Brad Keselowski a Pre-Race Favorite at Iowa

Brad Keselowski qualified fifth for tonight's Iowa Corn 350 and enters as one of the prerace favorites. Although you can't really predict this race based on past results since the track was resurfaced, Keselowski has proven to be a master of the track in the Xfinity Series with three wins and 332 laps led and […]

Austin Dillon's Lack of 2024 Speed Likely More Predictive than His Iowa Success

Austin Dillon has had a marginal uptick in performance since his stalwart crew chief, Justin Alexander, returned, but he's still having one of his worst seasons and is the fifth-slowest driver in the NASCAR Cup Series this year with a speed percentile of 27.56. This weekend at Iowa, he qualified dead last for Sunday night's […]

Austin Cindric Mediocre at Iowa Even Outside of the Cup Series

Despite Austin Cindric's surprise win at Gateway two weeks ago, it seems unlikely that he will be a significant contender in tonight's race at Iowa Speedway. Although Cindric has more experience than many other drivers at Iowa, he has never finished better than 10th in the Xfinity Series or eighth in the Craftsman Truck Series. […]