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Sean Wrona - RotoBaller

726 articles

I ran the auto racing statistical archive race-database.com from 2007 to 2015 and have been doing advanced auto racing analytics since 2013, mostly on my website Racermetrics. I was generally regarded as the fastest typist in the world throughout the 2010s, being most famous for winning the Ultimate Typing Championship at the South by Southwest Interactive conference in 2010. In 2021, I released my first book, Nerds per Minute: A History of Competitive Typing. I am currently doing research for a second book where I intend to rank the top 1,000 drivers in motorsports history and have built several statistical models to rank drivers across various motorsports series. I have just recently launched a blog at http://seanwrona.substack.com/ where I am releasing one driver capsule a day for my book if you are interested in subscribing. I earned a BA in Economics and an MPS in Applied Statistics from Cornell University in 2007 and 2008 respectively. I also am an expert-rated tournament Scrabble player. In high school, I was the statistician for the Mensa Scrabble-by-Mail Special Interest Group and wrote a 15-20 page column in that group's newsletter every other month. As you can see, I've been at this for a quarter century already.

Articles

Justin Allgaier Finishes 13th At Charlotte In Substitute Role For Kyle Larson

After the rain delay at Indianapolis meant Kyle Larson couldn't make the start of the Coca-Cola 600, Justin Allgaier got the opportunity of a lifetime to drive Larson's No. 5 Chevrolet, only the second time the prolific Xfinity Series winner drove a competitive NASCAR Cup Series car. In his only other Hendrick start at the […]


Shane van Gisbergen Making Non-Drafting Oval Debut at Charlotte

Shane van Gisbergen is making his first NASCAR Cup Series start on a non-drafting oval in this weekend's Coca-Cola 600, so it's difficult to predict his performance. His only previous race at Charlotte came in yesterday's BetMGM 300 Xfinity Series race, where he drove from 29th to 15th, but both of his teammates, A.J. Allmendinger […]


Daniel Suarez May Benefit From Trackhouse's Intermediate Speed, but Don't Count On It

On paper, Daniel Suárez seems like one of the best longshot candidates in this weekend's Coca-Cola 600. Both his win at Atlanta and his only other top-five this season (at Texas) came on high-banked intermediates just like Charlotte. Suárez qualified 14th for tonight's event, giving him his best starting position on a non-drafting track this […]


Charlotte Might be Zane Smith's Best Shot for a Solid Run

Zane Smith's rookie season has admittedly been very rocky, as he has no top-10s, no laps led, and the worst speed percentile amongst full-timers at 21.96, not to mention that his teammates, Corey LaJoie and fellow rookie Carson Hocevar, outrun him nearly every race weekend. However, Charlotte might be one of Smith's best opportunities to […]


John Hunter Nemechek Still Struggling to Figure Out Next Gen Car on Intermediates

John Hunter Nemechek qualified 26th for this weekend's Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway. Although he did outqualify his teammate, Erik Jones, don't expect either of the Legacy Motor Club cars to do much in the race. Jones is likely still feeling the brunt of his injury from Talladega, while Nemechek has been mediocre for […]


Corey LaJoie Likely to Have One of His Best Runs of the Season... If He Can Keep It Clean

Corey LaJoie has faced more criticism than any other NASCAR driver this year because he's been consistently outrun by his rookie teammate, Carson Hocevar, but that's more likely a result of fans underrating Hocevar than overrating LaJoie. LaJoie's performance has still been a lot closer to Hocevar's than Zane Smith's by nearly all metrics. LaJoie […]


Intermediates Haven't Been Brad Keselowski's Strong Suit With Next Gen Chassis

Although Brad Keselowski has won twice at Charlotte, he probably isn't one of the favorites for tonight's Coca-Cola 600 despite winning the last points race at Darlington and finishing second at Texas in the last high-banked intermediate race. Keselowski has struggled in qualifying all year and qualified 30th this weekend, matching his worst starting position […]


Ross Chastain Remains Strong on Intermediates Despite Decline in Speed Elsewhere

Trackhouse Racing has struggled to maintain its speed this year, as Ross Chastain has factored for the lead significantly less often than in 2022 and 2023 while his teammate, Daniel Suárez, has had an even more staggering decline. However, Charlotte is one of the likeliest tracks where Chastain could turn it around. He's been significantly […]


Chris Buescher Blows Tire in Practice, Will Start 39th at Charlotte

After blowing a tire in practice, Chris Buescher elected to not set a qualifying time for this weekend's Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte because he would have to start in the back after switching to a backup car anyway; he will be starting 39th in tonight's race. Although Charlotte isn't one of Buescher's absolute best tracks, […]


Ricky Stenhouse Jr Punches Kyle Busch After Lap 2 Crash at All-Star Race

Ricky Stenhouse Jr crashed in yesterday's NASCAR All-Star Race after two laps and finished last, triggering a post-race fight with Kyle Busch that overshadowed the entire race. On the opening lap, Stenhouse poked his nose between sixth-row starters, Denny Hamlin and Busch, to make a three-wide pass down the middle, but it forced Busch into […]


Kyle Busch Wrecked Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. at All-Star Race, Then Said He "Sucks"

Kyle Busch had a mediocre run in last night's NASCAR All-Star Race, starting 14th and finishing 10th, but that's not what people will remember. On lap 1, Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. made a three-wide pass on Denny Hamlin and Busch down the middle, forcing Busch into the wall. Rowdy decided to retaliate, sending Stenhouse into the […]


Daniel Suárez's Dismal Short Track Speed Should Make Him Non-Factor at North Wilkesboro

Although Daniel Suárez delivered one of the season's greatest highlights in his Atlanta win, he has not had the performance of a winner in most other events, and don't expect that to change in the All-Star Race at North Wilkesboro. Suárez enters the event as the second-slowest eligible driver on all tracks as well as […]


Brad Keselowski's Strong Qualifying Run May Bode Well for First All-Star Win

Perhaps surprisingly, Brad Keselowski has never won the NASCAR All-Star Race, but he has a very real chance to change that in this evening's event. Keselowski qualified second at North Wilkesboro and enters on something of a hot streak after winning at Darlington shortly after back-to-back second-place finishes at Talladega and Texas. Although the polesitter, […]


Ross Chastain's Short Track Performance Too Consistently Mediocre to Contend

Ross Chastain qualified seventh for the All-Star Race, but don't expect him to be a contender, as short tracks are generally Chastain's Achilles' heel. Chastain only ranks 17th in short track speed this year and he was even worse last year when he ranked 23rd even though the Trackhouse Racing cars seemed to be a […]


Chris Buescher's Recent Intensity May Elevate His All-Star Performance

Chris Buescher qualified fifth for tonight's All-Star Race, but he probably isn't one of the favorites to win. Last year, Buescher qualified second but never led and fell to 16th a lap down by race's end. Although he did get two top ten finishes at Bristol and Richmond, he didn't seriously contend in either of […]


Ryan Blaney Qualified Slowest at North Wilkesboro, but Should Run Better

Defending NASCAR Cup Series champion Ryan Blaney qualified last for this evening's NASCAR All-Star Race, twenty seconds slower than his teammate Joey Logano, who won the pole. Although he has won the race once before, the race was held at Texas Motor Speedway that year. Blaney finished sixth in last year's event but was not […]


Kyle Larson Wins Stage, but Crashes Out at Darlington Due to Cut Tire

Kyle Larson started sixth at Darlington before being taken out in a lap 252 crash, relegating him to a 34th-place finish. Larson had great speed, especially in Stage 1 when he beat Tyler Reddick out of the pits before passing Ty Gibbs to take the Stage win. However, after Reddick retook the lead in the […]


Slow Pit Stops Foil Todd Gilliland at Darlington Despite Impressive Speed

Although Todd Gilliland finished 15th in this weekend's race at Darlington while his teammate Michael McDowell finished 10th, that does not reflect how well he ran, as Gilliland consistently had more speed, particularly in Stage 1 when he drove from 15th to 6th, finishing the Stage as the second-highest Ford driver behind only eventual race […]


Chris Buescher Taken Out of Win, but Increased Aggression Working for Him

Chris Buescher delivered an electrifying performance for the second straight week at Darlington before a cut tire dropped him to 30th. Although his owner-teammate and eventual winner, Brad Keselowski, outran him, Buescher short-pitted to join the leaders' battle. While Keselowski and Tyler Reddick ran side-by-side for several laps, Buescher caught them sleeping and made a […]


Despite Crash, Ryan Blaney Had One of His Best Darlington Runs

Ryan Blaney is not particularly known as a great Darlington driver, as he's never finished better than eighth and has only led laps in two races. However, this past weekend in the Goodyear 400, he was on pace for one of his best-ever runs there before being eliminated in a lap 129 crash. Blaney started […]


Michael McDowell Poised For Downturn After Leaving Front Row Motorsports

After announcing his departure from Front Row Motorsports to join Spire Motorsports in 2025 last week, Michael McDowell is now a lame-duck driver for both FRM and Ford. Since he is moving to a Chevrolet team and lame-duck drivers rarely receive as much in the way of factory support or setup notes (particularly if they […]


Carson Hocevar A Reliable Darlington Finisher In All Series

This year's rookie wunderkind Carson Hocevar has clearly overtaken Corey LaJoie to become the Spire Motorsports team leader, and he is coming to a track where he already has much experience and a consistent finishing record. Hocevar got his first finish in the NASCAR Cup Series there last year when he finished 17th for Legacy […]


Justin Haley Likely Needs Attrition To Contend At Darlington

Justin Haley qualified 28th for this weekend's race at Darlington, giving him his best starting position on an unrestricted superspeedway since he moved to Rick Ware Racing. Haley is a plodding, methodical driver who predictably finishes better than he starts almost every week, and Darlington will likely prove no exception. He has a better average […]


Chase Elliott Consistent At Darlington, But Has Never Led With Next Gen Chassis

Although Chase Elliott has never won at Darlington, he certainly had the speed to do so in both 2020 races when he led 142 laps despite crashing in both. However, those races both came with the Generation 6 chassis, and Elliott generally ran better with that chassis than the Next Gen chassis. Since the Next […]


Lack Of Speed Should Override Austin Dillon's Historical Consistency At Darlington

Although he's never led a lap at Darlington, it is one of Austin Dillon's most consistent tracks, as he has an average finish of 14.3 there, better than any other track the NASCAR Cup Series visits twice. His second-place finish in the 2020 Southern 500 was one of his best-ever drives. However, Dillon has struggled […]


Kyle Busch A Likely Top-10 Finisher, But Probably Won't Contend For The Win

Kyle Busch has had a wildly inconsistent 2024 season, as his runs on superspeedways and road courses have been consistently strong but he has been lackluster on tracks of one mile or less, much like his Richard Childress Racing predecessor Tyler Reddick. Busch only won at Darlington once in 2008 but he has consistently run […]


Harrison Burton Won't Add To Wood Brothers' Legacy On Throwback Weekend

Although the Wood Brothers have won eight times at Darlington (more than any other track except for Daytona and Michigan), Harrison Burton looks quite unlikely to add to that record this weekend, as he qualified 35th for the Goodyear 400 and was the slowest qualifier in the first qualifying group. He did get one of […]


Tyler Reddick Unexpectedly Lackluster at Kansas

After winning the previous race at Kansas Speedway (historically 23XI Racing's best track), Tyler Reddick had the most disappointing run relative to expectations in this past weekend's AdventHealth 400. While the 23XI Toyotas seemed just as fast as the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas in the earlier Next Gen races at Kansas, Reddick and his teammate, […]


Ty Gibbs Had Speed But Was Foiled by Pit Strategy at Kansas

Ty Gibbs had a strong run for most of yesterday's AdventHealth 400 at Kansas Speedway, as he ran inside the top 10 for the entirety of Stages 1 and 2 except for pit sequences and he finished sixth in both stages. However, Gibbs was one of the race's biggest victims when the rash of cautions […]


William Byron Unable to Fully Recover From Qualifying Crash at Kansas

William Byron had an unusually mediocre run at Kansas Speedway this past weekend despite his teammate, Kyle Larson, winning the race. Byron started in the back after a qualifying crash but struggled to move up through the pack even though passing was not very difficult, especially on restarts. He managed to break into the top […]


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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

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