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Denny Hamlin sits 27 points behind the playoff cutline to make the Championship Four, which means he will likely either need to win at Homestead or Martinsville and/or benefit from a poor finish from Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson, and/or William Byron. Hamlin can definitely win at Homestead. He's done so three times before, but it never benefited him in a championship battle as he was mathematically eliminated in 2009, didn't make the playoffs in 2013, and his win wasn't in the playoffs in 2020. He has tended to struggle more at Homestead in the races where his championship chances were on the line. Nonetheless, the Toyotas tend to have dominant intermediate speed this year and Hamlin is starting 4th, so he's definitely capable of winning, especially if his pit crew doesn't let him down like it did at Kansas.--Sean Wrona - RotoBaller
Source: Racing Reference
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