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Dave's fantasy football busts and draft avoids for 2025. His "All-Bust" team, including picks for RB, WR, TE, and QB. Read about the overvalued NFL veterans.
Every year, dedicated fantasy football managers spend hours trying to figure out which players they should select in their annual fantasy football draft. What’s equally important, but sometimes overlooked, is identifying which players you should actively avoid. Busts are not fun to discuss. It’s much more enjoyable to talk about the players you think will have breakout seasons. Sadly, that’s not the reality of playing fantasy football. Players disappoint every year. If you’re unlucky enough to have a team filled with potential busts, well, you can probably save some time and get started on your league’s embarrassing last-place punishment.
Last year in this article, I highlighted C.J. Stroud, Sam LaPorta, Rachaad White, Cooper Kupp, and Dalton Kincaid as players fantasy managers should avoid. Gamers who heeded that advice avoided several landmines that would have tanked their season. So, which players should managers fade in 2025? Let’s dive in and find out.
Make sure you’re following RotoBaller on X and check out RotoBaller.com for all your fantasy football needs. Here is the 2025 all-bust team full of players to avoid in your fantasy football draft.
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Baker Mayfield - QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mayfield had an all-world season in 2024. He set career highs in passing yards, passing touchdowns, and QB rating. 4,500 total passing yards and a whopping 41 touchdown passes propelled Mayfield to a QB4 finish.
BAKER MAYFIELD TO Mike Evans TD!
📺: #TBvsLAC on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/PJekNHYcal— NFL (@NFL) December 15, 2024
While Mayfield seemingly took his game to new heights last year, there are reasons to be concerned about his 2025 season. Last year’s offensive coordinator and player-caller, Liam Coen, is now the head coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Mayfield certainly benefited from Coen’s creativity as a play-caller, and his departure is worrisome. While Tampa Bay attempted to keep the offensive system the same by promoting Josh Grizzard to offensive coordinator, there’s no guarantee he’ll be as effective as Coen.
There’s also the fact that Mayfield threw touchdown passes at an absurdly high rate last year. His 7.2% touchdown rate in 2024 was a career high by a mile. This is almost certain to regress closer to his career mark of 5.0%. A large drop in touchdown passes could be catastrophic for his fantasy production.
Bottom line: Mayfield’s 2024 season is a huge career outlier and points to regression across the board. Avoid him and target other quarterbacks later in your draft.
Saquon Barkley - RB, Philadelphia Eagles
It might seem a tad ridiculous to fade Barkley after he ran for 2,005 rushing yards last year. The reality, though, is that there are multiple examples of a running back's production taking a step backward following a 2,000-yard season.
Here are the other eight running backs to eclipse 2,000 rushing yards in a single season and their rushing totals the following year:
Eric Dickerson
- 1984: 2,105 rushing yards
- 1985: 1,284 rushing yards
- 2012: 2,097 rushing yards
- 2013: 1,266 rushing yards
Jamal Lewis
- 2003: 2,066 rushing yards
- 2004: 1,006 rushing yards
Barry Sanders
- 1997: 2,053 rushing yards
- 1998: 1,491 rushing yards
- 2020: 2,027 rushing yards
- 2021: 937 rushing yards
Terrell Davis
- 1998: 2,008 rushing yards
- 1999: 211 rushing yards
Chris Johnson
- 2009: 2,006 rushing yards
- 2010: 1,364 rushing yards
O.J. Simpson
- 1973: 2,003 rushing yards
- 1974: 1,125 rushing yards
All of these running backs experienced a steep drop in rushing production the following year. Many of them also missed multiple games due to injury.
Both of these issues could be a problem for Barkley in 2025. Even though he remains in a great situation, history tells us Barkley's rushing totals will decline this year. He also has a history of injuries dating back to his days with the New York Giants. After registering an absurd 482 touches last year (including playoffs), Barkley’s injury problems could rear their ugly head.
Look, Barkley is a great player, but what all of this tells us is that you should not pay a high premium on a running back coming off a 2,000-yard season. Historically speaking, that’s been a pretty good approach.
It just feels like the time to draft Barkley was last year when he was available for a discount. That means gamers may want to avoid him in 2025.
James Conner - RB, Arizona Cardinals
Conner is also coming off a career year in 2024. He had a career-high 1,094 rushing yards and scored nine rushing touchdowns. Conner would finish the season as the PPR RB11.
45-yard catch and run by James Conner for the score!
📺: #NYJvsAZ on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/lJzAiHSDjV— NFL (@NFL) November 10, 2024
2025 will be Conner’s age-30 season, though, and this is an age where running back production can take a hit. There have also been conflicting reports on whether Conner will remain the team’s clear-cut RB1 this offseason. The coaching staff seems to want Conner to remain their lead back, but Conner seemingly suggested sophomore Trey Benson will have a larger role.
#Cardinals HC Jonathan Gannon on whether the message from the coaching staff to James Conner and Trey Benson has been that Arizona has two RB1s:
“Not from me. It’s compete for your role… Probably what they’re alluding to — both of those guys — is they both want to play, and… https://t.co/wa4am0rlRU pic.twitter.com/t8p36SGrkd
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) August 6, 2025
“He’s gonna play a lot this year.”
Cardinals RB James Conner is expecting big things from Trey Benson. pic.twitter.com/6227zTyFIh
— Tyler Drake (@Tdrake4sports) August 3, 2025
Whether or not Conner splits touches with Benson could be irrelevant if Conner doesn’t stay healthy. He has always battled injuries during his career. To his credit, Conner only missed one game last year. However, injuries typically don't get better for running backs as they age. If Conner misses extended action, it could leave the door open for Benson to carve out a role.
There are just other younger, more exciting backs (R.J. Harvey, TreVeyon Henderson) available in drafts this year. Gamers are better off taking one of them and letting someone else draft Conner.
Courtland Sutton - WR, Denver Broncos
Denver recently awarded Sutton a new four-year, $92 million contract extension. This was a bit surprising considering Sutton turns 30 in October. However, he is coming off a strong 2024.
Sutton had a career-best 81 receptions on a career-high 135 targets last year. He also posted his second career 1,000-yard season, and his eight touchdown receptions were the second most of his career.
Courtland Sutton comes down with a WILD touchdown catch 👀
📺: #LACvsDEN on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/zPOmhitQ43— NFL (@NFL) October 13, 2024
While that's all well and good, Denver has made several additions this offseason that could negatively impact Sutton’s target share. The Broncos signed tight end Evan Engram and drafted running back Harvey in the second round of the NFL Draft. Both these players should have a featured role in the passing game.
Third-year wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. is expected to take a step forward, and sophomore receiver Troy Franklin is also reportedly having a strong training camp. The Broncos also drafted rookie receiver Pat Bryant in the third round of the NFL Draft. It’s unclear what kind of Year 1 role he will have, but his presence is another potential issue for Sutton.
Head coach Sean Payton has had seasons where he’s hyper-targeted his best players and run the offense almost exclusively through them. However, he’s also had years where he’s taken a “spread the wealth” approach. Long-time fantasy gamers will remember the days of Robert Meachem, Devery Henderson, and Lance Moore.
This Broncos offense feels like it will be more of the latter than the former. That means Sutton’s target share and fantasy production would take a hit. Consider other wide receivers on draft day.
Mike Evans - WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Evans churned out his 11th straight 1,000-yard season in 2024. He posted a 73-1004-11 line in the process and finished the season as the PPR WR14.
2025 will be Evans’ age-32 season, and this is an age where wide receiver production can rapidly decline. Evans also missed three games last year with another hamstring injury. Soft tissue injuries can become more frequent as a player ages, and Evans already has a lengthy history of hamstring strains.
Despite Evans defying the odds and playing at a high level after turning 30, it's only a matter of time until his game declines. Father Time always wins. Combine that with the aforementioned loss of Coen, the addition of first-round pick Emeka Egbuka, and the presence of sophomore receiver Jalen McMillan, and there is a real possibility Evans' numbers take a step back in 2025.
He’s had a historic start to his career, but gamers should let someone else pick Evans this year.
David Njoku - TE, Cleveland Browns
Njoku posted his third straight TE1 finish in 2024. He caught 64 passes for 505 yards and had five receiving touchdowns in 11 games. Njoku finished the season as the PPR TE11 and the TE4 in PPR points per game.
As you can see from his stat line, Njoku was not very efficient last year. He averaged a career low 7.89 yards per reception in 2024. Some of that could be explained by Njoku suffering several injuries and being forced to miss multiple games. However, it could also be a sign that the veteran tight end is slowing down.
Perhaps Cleveland saw something on film that it didn’t like, as the team would select tight end Harold Fannin Jr. in the third round of the 2025 NFL Draft.
With our 67th pick, we're bringing in a hometown guy
📰 » https://t.co/Ydoo75t5UA pic.twitter.com/sUpRFf4Oo6
— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) April 26, 2025
Fannin was a monster in college and posted some impressive numbers. He could challenge Njoku for playing time as the season progresses.
There’s also the fact that Cleveland’s quarterback situation is a complete mess. Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett, Dillon Gabriel, Shedeur Sanders, and Tyler Huntley aren’t exactly a recipe for fantasy football success. This will be a major problem for Njoku and all the other Cleveland skill players.
Put it all together, and Njoku becomes an easy fade. Target tight ends on better offenses and avoid the mess that will be the Browns offense this year.
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