Are You For Real? Surprising Pitcher Starts from Week 20

Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SP could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers, or simply mirages.

Welcome to Are You For Real?, a weekly column where we look at pitchers who turned in surprisingly good starts and try to determine whether they are the real deal. It was apparently the week of the lefty and the week of the Diamondback, as we're breaking down three southpaws in this piece, including two that pitch out in the desert for Arizona.

This week we're looking at a possible resurgence of the embattled Caleb Smith, the unlikeliest of emergent Yankees in Nestor Cortes Jr., and of course we're going to look at Tyler Gilbert after tossing a no hitter in his first career start (Note: If you're interested in learning more about Triston McKenzie after his awesome start on Sunday, check out the breakdown done on him last month).

Roster percentages quoted in this piece are based on Yahoo availability and are accurate as of 8/16/2021.

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Caleb Smith, Arizona Diamondbacks

5% Rostered

2021 Stats (prior to this start): 87 IP, 5.48 ERA, 5.28 FIP, 1.9 K/BB ratio

8/12 vs. SD: 5.1 IP, 4 H, 1 R (0 ER), 1 BB, 5 K

It wasn’t that long ago that Smith was viewed on the same level as Sandy Alcantara and Pablo Lopez as the future aces of Miami. Smith wasn’t as complete a pitcher or as highly touted a prospect as either Alcantara or Lopez, but he gave off strong Robbie Ray vibes as a wild left-hander with a dominant slider. Things have diverged quite a bit for Smith over the last three seasons, as we’ve witnessed his control completely unravel. The Diamondbacks hoped to fix what ailed him, as Smith was one of the key pieces Arizona got in return for Starling Marte at the 2020 trade deadline, but Smith has been a hot mess in the desert. Since coming to Arizona, Smith has a 13.5% walk rate, 1.7 HR/9, and a 5.25 FIP. He was so bad he got removed from the starting rotation. Arizona’s starting rotation. He’s back to working longer in games with an opener ahead of him, and Smith had one of his most encouraging outings in quite some time on Thursday, allowing zero earned runs over 5.1 innings. Most importantly, he only issued one walk, which is an incredible feat considering he walked 11 batters over his last two outings (which wouldn't be so bad if it weren't just a combined three innings). There’s certainly room for Smith to regain his rotation spot as the D-Backs search for arms to help them through the rest of a dismal season, but can Smith be fantasy viable once again?

Smith works with a four-pitch repertoire consisting of a four-seam fastball, slider, changeup, and curveball. His fastball has averaged 91.4 MPH on the gun this year, which is the lowest mark of his career and 1.4 MPH off his peak velocity as a starter. Smith is probably best known for his slider, which had been a big strikeout pitch and the key to his success in the past. Smith’s changeup is his third-most used pitch, which he throws almost exclusively to right-handed batters. He added the curveball last season, and while he only uses it about 9% of the time, the pitch has performed well enough that it could add some much-needed depth to Smith’s arsenal.

As mentioned above, the slider has been the key to success for Smith in the past. Opponents are hitting .196 with a .609 OPS and a 15.1% swinging strike rate against the pitch all time, and are hitting .194 with a .651 OPS against it this season. The whiffs are a bit down for Smith, who has a 12.9% swinging strike rate with his slider. A few years ago that would’ve been a respectable figure, but with strikeouts surging across the league, that swinging strike rate is just plain unremarkable. What’s changed? Well, for starters Smith has lost quite a bit of movement with his slider compared to its peak. Below are year-by-year movement charts for Smith’s slider to get an idea how much the pitch has changed.

Here is horizontal movement:

And here is vertical movement:

He’s lost quite a bit of break, which has coincided with increased slider velocity. The slider went from being a slower, loopier offering to more of a hard, sharp traditional slider. There is nothing inherently wrong with a change like that, but it doesn’t really benefit a pitcher like Smith. That type of hard, sharp slider works best when paired with a hard fastball, which Smith does not possess. Even in this start, his velocity maxed out at 93.5 MPH, which happened early in his outing.

Because Smith didn’t start this game and his previous two outings were under two innings, it looks like he went all-out when he first entered the game, not expecting to pitch as deep as he did. He was throwing 92-93 MPH consistently when he first came in, but he was struggling to stay above 90 MPH towards the end of his day. Point being, Smith doesn’t have the top-end velocity to make a harder slider effective. The slider is still good at inducing favorable contact, as batters have an 84.8 MPH average exit velocity and 47.7% flyball rate against the pitch this season, but Smith cannot generate the same whiff numbers on the slider that he has in previous seasons. Even in this start he only got four whiffs with his slider, good for a 27% whiff rate, which just doesn’t cut it in the current strikeout-heavy era.

You’re probably wondering why Smith would make such a change, especially when it’s only decreased his slider’s effectiveness. My speculation is that these changes are the result of physical decline and injury. Smith’s most promising season was 2018, where he posted a 3.96 FIP and a 27% strikeout rate, but that campaign ended early for Smith, who underwent shoulder surgery in June 2018. Since that surgery, Smith has lost over a full MPH on his fastball and has seen the movement on his slider change quite drastically. Physically, he’s no longer the pitcher he was in 2018, and even before the surgery he was a flawed starter that overcame poor control and home run issues with his stuff. Unfortunately, I don’t think we’re ever going to see a good version of Caleb Smith again. Long term, his role should probably be as a reliever, but he will may start for the rest of 2021 as the Diamondbacks need arms to get them through the year. His outlook may have changed with Tyler Gilbert's emergence, however, I think Smith will work as a starter at least until Merrill Kelly and Taylor Widener return.

Verdict:

This was a nice outing to see from Smith, but I doubt we'll ever see the pitcher who flashed so much potential back in 2018. He appears to be physically diminished by the shoulder injury he suffered. He already had suspect control and Gopheritis before the injury that got by on pure stuff, but now that he's lost a little bit on his stuff, Smith has nothing to fall back on. Considering how much Smith has been blasted at certain points this year, I wouldn't throw this dynamite in my rotation. Best case scenario, it doesn't explode.

Nestor Cortes Jr., New York Yankees

11% Rostered

2021 Stats (prior to this start): 43.1 IP, 2.70 ERA, 3.23 FIP, 3.5 K/BB ratio

8/15 @ CWS: 6 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K

One might look at Nestor Cortes’s excellent season-long stats and wonder why his most recent start should be considered surprising, but there had been a lot of reasons to be skeptical of him. He was working primarily as a reliver/opener, the Yankees seemed poised to upgrade at starting pitcher him at the deadline, and he kind of looks like Farva from Super Troopers. All valid reasons to doubt Cortes’s performance. He’s been proving the doubters wrong as of late, seizing a rotation spot for himself and pitching at least five innings in his last four starts, including his first career quality start in this one. He also threw 98 pitches, so he’s clearly stretched out and has earned enough trust from the Yankees to stick in the rotation for now. Sure, the Yankees should get Gerrit Cole and Jordan Montgomery back from the COVID IL soon, but Cortes deserves a rotation spot over Andrew Heaney at the least, and may be able to keep his spot for the rest of the year depending on how injuries shake out. Even if Cortes is good enough for the Yankees’ rotation, is he good enough for yours?

After playing his college ball at Florida International University, Cortes was selected in the 36^th round of the MLB draft by the Yankees in 2013, the 1094^th player selected overall. Funny enough, Cortes is actually on his third stint with the Yankees. Baltimore selected him in the 2017 Rule 5 draft but shipped him back to New York after 4.2 disastrous innings. Cortes was then traded to Seattle because Jerry DiPoto can’t resist the opportunity to make a swap, but was released after 7.2 disastrous innings and wound up back in the Bronx. Cortes primarily works with a four-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, slider, changeup, and curveball. He has technically thrown 22 sinkers this season, but it’s a scarcely used pitch for him.

Cortes’s best pitch has been his fastball, which has held opposing hitters to a .152 average and .370 OPS on the year. This probably comes as a surprise because Cortes doesn’t exactly light up the radar gun with his heater. He has averaged 90.5 MPH with his fastball this season, which is a boost from previous years when he was around 88-89 MPH, but still on the low side for an MLB starter. Cortes has been able to thrive with a slower fastball thanks to solid command of the pitch. He’s consistently kept his fastball in the mid-to-upper zone, which has led to inducing low probability contact. His average launch angle against for the fastball is 25 degrees, and the flyball rate off his fastball is 46%. It’s true that fly balls are most likely to go for home runs, but if a fly ball doesn’t leave the yard, it’s very likely to result in an out. Cortes has always had fly ball tendencies, but has become an extreme fly ball pitcher this season, with a 47.3% fly ball rate. This fly ball rate is a big reason why Cortes has an incredible .199 xBA and .303 xSLG.

While a flyball-heavy approach can be effective over a long period of time, pitchers who rely on fly ball outs are the least exciting when it comes to fantasy production. Obviously, strikeouts are king and any pitcher who has proven to maintain a good strikeout rate is high value asset. Ground ball pitchers can be good fantasy tools as well. They may not put up the sexy stat lines, but ground balls are low risk balls-in-play, and unless the pitcher is inordinately unlucky or makes grievous mistakes on a regular basis, he should be able to limit runs. Fly ball pitchers are trickier because the risk of serious damage always lurks around the corner. Cortes has only allowed four home runs this season and hasn’t allowed a single homer with his fastball, but he’s certainly had luck on his side to keep the ball in the yard. His average fly ball of 190 feet isn’t terrible, but it puts him in roughly the 75^th percentile of MLB pitchers (min. 100 BBE). He also gives up rather hard contact with his fastball, as batters have a 90.7 MPH average exit velocity against. His 7.5% HR/FB ratio is well below league average, and while a pitcher like Cortes would likely maintain a HR/FB ratio better than average, this number screams regression,  especially since he has a career 17.6% HR/FB ratio. His overperformance in the home run department shows in his discouraging 4.20 xFIP, which doesn’t bode well for Cortes’s long term outlook.

To Cortes’s credit, his 26.4% strikeout rate is solid, so even if he experienced home run regression, he could sustain some success if he keeps up the strikeouts. Unfortunately, Cortes looks to have overperformed with strikeouts as well. He only has an 8.5% swinging strike rate on the year, and his slider, which is his big strikeout pitch, has a pitiful 11.2% swinging strike rate. Cortes did managed 13 whiffs in this start, including six with his slider, but that swinging strike rate is far above how he’s performed in other outings this season, especially out of the rotation. Cortes has just a 20.8% strikeout rate as a starter and a 35.4% strikeout rate as a reliever. His overall strikeout rate is inflated by his time in the bullpen, and Cortes is unlikely to maintain an above average strikeout rate as a starting pitcher.

Verdict:

Cortes has squeezed the most out of his physical abilities this season, but it seems pretty clear that the mustachioed southpaw is pitching over his head. He's reliant on a flyball-heavy approach, which is a difficult tightrope to walk as a starter, especially in Yankee Stadium, though being left-handed certainly helps him there. He’s hard to trust in any one given start, and he’s only usable against the weakest of lineups or in deeper leagues. His next start comes home against Minnesota, a middle-of-the-road team against lefties. I wouldn’t use him there unless you’re desperate.

Tyler Gilbert, Arizona Diamondbacks

13% Rostered

2021 Stats (AAA): 52.1 IP, 3.44 ERA, 4.21 FIP, 2.63 K/BB ratio

8/14 vs. SD: 9 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 5 K

Gilbert had one of the most surprising and unlikely performances in recent memory on Saturday, tossing a no-hitter in his first career start against the San Diego Padres. The 27-year-old southpaw only had three relief appearances to his name prior to this start, and the Diamondbacks probably weren’t expecting him to last more than a few innings in this one. Of course, now that the dust has settled on his achievement, we need to take a step back and analyze Gilbert to see if he’s can give us a much needed boost for the playoffs, or if he’ll go down as a no-hit, one-hit wonder.

Originally a sixth-round pick out of USC by Philadephia, Gilbert never had much prospect pedigree. In fact, most didn’t expect him to reach the majors. The ones that did expected him to work as a reliever rather than a starter. Prior to 2021, he hadn’t started a game at any level since 2017 at High-A ball. Since then, he’s been a reliever in the minors and put up relatively underwhelming numbers for a minor league reliever at his age. The Diamondbacks got him as a Rule-5 pick from LA and moved him back to a starting role in Triple-A. Gilbert primarily worked with three pitches in this start, his four-seam fastball, sinker, and cutter. They are all essentially variations of a fastball, with his cutter acting as the closest thing to a breaking ball. He also throws the occasional curveball and has thrown four splitters this year, but it’s been mostly about the three fastball variations for him.

The pitch Gilbert relied on the most during his no hitter was the cutter, which averages about 85 MPH and has displayed an ever-so-slightly above average amount of break. It hasn’t proven to be much of a strikeout pitch for him thus far, as Gilbert only got five of his nine whiffs with it in this start, a meager 18% whiff rate. Based on the pitch movement and his minor league track record, I wouldn’t expect this or any pitch to provide much in the strikeout department. Here’s a few examples of the pitch from this start.

Even though it was his most used pitch, it doesn’t look like a special offering by any means. The velocity and movement are unremarkable, and while it’s far too small a sample size to draw conclusions at the major league level, Gilbert’s pedestrian minor league groundball rates suggest the pitch isn’t that effective at inducing grounders either.

Gilbert used his cutter 47% of the time in this start, and has used it 44.8% of the time including relief appearances. This much cutter usage is a rarity among starters, as there are only three qualified starters with more than 40% cutter usage. First is Corbin Burnes, who is a physical freak in terms of spin rate and velocity generated, and on another level than Gilbert. Second is Wade Miley, who is a groundball machine and has showcased excellent control this season. Third is Ryan Yarborough, who is in the top 1% of average exit velocity against this season and has been for three straight years. The three pitchers who are able use such a cutter-heavy approach possess extraordinary skills that Gilbert doesn’t seem to have. Again, it’s a small sample size, but he has allowed 91.1 MPH average exit velocity thus far and 91.7 MPH with his cutter. It would be hard to see Gilbert maintain long term success as a starter with this cutter as his primary pitch.

The cutter may have been his most-used pitch in this outing, but he used his two fastballs a combined 46% of the time, which is about even with his cutter usage. The top-end velocity is underwhelming, as his four-seamer averaged 89.3 MPH in this start and maxed out at 91.4 MPH. He doesn’t make up for a lack in velocity with an elevated spin rate either, as he’s been slightly below league average in spin rate thus far. He earned a donut in the whiff column with his four-seamer, and put up four of his nine whiffs with the sinker. Fastballs aren’t generally the pitches that induce swinging strikes, at least not on the level of breaking balls, but Gilbert has gotten a laughable one swinging strike all season with his four-seamer. Altogether, these fastballs just don’t measure up to other big league starters.

Verdict:

It never feels good to give such a negative outlook, especially when the player is coming off such an incredible achievement, but Gilbert just doesn’t seem to have the stuff of an MLB starter. There’s always an element of luck in any no-hitter, but in watching this game and going back to Gilbert’s pitching for this piece, it was almost as if the Baseball Gods willed this no hitter into being. One especially comical sequence occurred in the fourth inning, when Gilbert walked the first batter, then got a line drive double play to first on a ball with a .590 xBA. He then got Manny Machado to lineout to left on a ball with an .810 xBA and 112.2 MPH average exit velocity. While this was an amazing game to experience from a real baseball perspective, I think any FAB spent to add Gilbert would be FAB wasted. There’s a reason it took him six years in the minors and three different organizations to get his first MLB start at age 27. He’ll probably stay in the rotation at least until Merrill Kelly and Taylor Widener return from the IL, but unless you’re in an incredibly deep league, I wouldn’t even consider Gilbert, especially since his next start comes in Coors Field on Friday.

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