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Jamie Steed recommends betting picks for the MLB slate on 7/17/2021. He breaks down each team's situation and suggests the top picks on money lines, totals, run lines, and more!
Well, that was something. After weeks of near misses, one-run losses and coming up one strikeout short, we turned the tables and hit everything last night. Michael Wacha hit over 4.5 K by striking out Charlie Morton as his last batter of the outing. The Astros threatened to de-rail us with a four-run seventh inning but the game finished 7-1 so the under nine total runs hit. Then our two-game parlay completed the sweep with the Dodgers winning comfortably before Jed Lowrie hit the walk-off home run for the A's to make it a big day. Let's keep the momentum going into the weekend.
Before we begin, I want to remind you that gambling should be fun. When the fun stops, stop. Never bet more than you're willing to lose. I'm no professional gambler, just a guy who loves the game and likes a bet. But I'll still be giving 100% in my research to make us some money. Everything I put here, I'll be backing myself so we're in this together. I'll also be keeping track of only my picks so I don't drag down the numbers from my colleagues.
We have been really increasing our sports betting content at RotoBaller, and this year will be no different. Tommy Bell (@BellRoto) will be handling things over in our premium offering. Steve Janik (@stevejanik6) and Brua Tagovailoaić (@LucidMediaDFS) will be giving out the free picks during the week throughout the season, with some help from yours truly. And Kipp Heisterman (@kipppsta) brings you the Monkey Knife Fight picks. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
- Moneyline Record: 4-6 (-2.27 U)
- O/U Record: 6-8-1 (-1.75 U)
- Runline Record: 1-4 (-2.42 U)
- 1st 5 Innings Record: 5-12 (-5.12 U)
- Prop Record: 16-11 (+5.45 U)
- 2021 Total Record: 32-41-1 (-6.11 U)
New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: NYM -170, PIT +150
NYM: Tylor Megill | PIT: Wil Crowe
The Mets offense continued to stutter along last night, putting up just one run against the Pirates as they dropped game one of the series 4-1. That also makes it just two wins from five games against the Pirates after splitting the four-game series before the All-Star Break. They've now scored 56 runs in 12 games this month (4.67 per game), although that does include six double-headers.
The 328 total runs scored in MLB this year is 29th, only the Pirates (323) have scored fewer. The Pirates' struggles have continued into July with just 46 runs scored in 12 games (3.83 runs per game). And that's despite Adam Frazier and Bryan Reynolds both starting the All-Star Game for the National League.
Megill has been a minor revelation for the Mets. This will be just his fifth start but he has 3.50 ERA and his xERA of 2.32 (from 18.0 IP) shows he's not just been reliant on fortune, he's been good. His last start came against the Pirates last Saturday in which he completed 3.2 IP and allowed just one run (four hits, three walks and seven strikeouts). He's yet to complete more than 5.0 IP but that's all he really needs to do today.
Crowe has a disappointing 6.05 ERA on the year from 55.0 IP (13 appearances, 12 starts) and has yet to face the Mets. But his last five starts have been better with a 4.50 ERA in 24.0 IP. The last time he went more than five innings in a start was on May 08th but like Megill, that's all he really needs to do.
That's largely in part due to both teams having solid bullpens. The Pirates relievers have a collective 4.26 ERA (17th in MLB) while the Mets 4.08 ERA ranks 15th. In what should be a tight and low-scoring affair early, both teams will be more likely to use their better relievers so I don't see double-digit runs in this one.
Pick: Over/under - Under 9 total runs (-115) 1 Unit
Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: MIA +105, PHI -115
MIA: Zach Thompson | PHI: Vince Velasquez
The Marlins and Phillies played their double-header yesterday with seven runs scored in each (Phillies taking game one 5-2 and the Marlins won 7-0 in game two). The Phillies are now just three games back of the Mets in the NL East and their offense has been firing often enough to keep their divisional title hopes alive.
The Phillies scored double-digit runs in three games last week (13-3 and 15-10 wins versus the Cubs and 11-2 against the Red Sox). The problem has been inconsistency as their other nine games in July have seen them total 42 runs (4.67 per game) and they're without Alec Bohm (Covid list) who was hitting .304/.429/.609 over his previous seven games.
The Marlins offense has lacked runs all season. Only the aforementioned Pirates and Mets (plus the Cardinals) have scored fewer than their 362 runs this year. They totaled just 47 runs in 12 July games (3.92 runs per game). Their collective 94 wRC+ since June 01st is tied-22nd in MLB
Thompson has been excellent for the Marlins, as has the whole rotation been with a 3.50 collective ERA (seventh-best). He's only made five starts (24.0 IP) but has a 2.25 ERA and his last two outings both were 6.0 IP as the Marlins look for him to go deeper into games.
Velasquez has an inflated 5.35 ERA from his 18 appearances (14 starts) this year over 72.1 IP. His last two starts were both dreadful and totaled just 8.1 IP while he gave up 13 earned runs (15 hits, seven walks and five homers). But those starts came against the Red Sox and Padres, two of the hottest offenses in the game. His start prior to that was against the Marlins in which he threw seven shutout innings. That was the second time he'd shut down the Marlins this year after going 6.0 IP on May 25th without allowing a run.
Velasquez has had the Marlins number so far this year and the Miami offense has been below average all year. The Phillies offense has been much better of late but Thompson has been great too. Normally when we see good pitching and bad hitting against bad pitching and good hitting, one team might break out for a few runs. But rarely do both teams do so and with Velasquez dominating the Marlins so far this year, I see another lower score in this one.
Pick: Over/under - Under 9.5 total runs (-105) 1 Unit
Prop Bet
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees
The Yankees season lurches from one disaster to another, the latest being a Covid outbreak that's left three relievers and three hitters on the shelf. Luke Voit also hit the IL with a knee injury and as of right now, their active roster consists of Chris Gittens, Trey Amburgey, Rob Brantly, Hoy Jun Park and Greg Allen. Rougned Odor was hitting third in the lineup last night against a leftie and unsurprisingly, they failed to score a run.
Nathan Eovaldi has six or more strikeouts in each of his last three starts, included one against the Yankees (7.2 IP). He also struck out seven Yankees in 6.0 IP to start June and tallied nine K's in his last start against the Angels (5.2 IP).
Pick: Eovaldi over 5.5 Ks (-128) 1 Unit
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