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The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 5/3/21. Euan Leith's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
Happy Monday, RotoBallers! It's the first Monday of the second month of the season, and MLB is giving us a 10-game slate to kick start our DFS week. As of this writing, there's nothing to be worried too much about with the weather forecasts. Philadelphia has a chance of rain, while Minnesota expects to feel some solid left-to-right winds. Wrigley Field will see some light right to left action, and Kauffman Stadium is supposed to have the wind coming into the ballpark, making that big field play even larger.
The top-two options on Monday's slate are some of the best in the game. Tyler Glasnow and Walker Buehler are some of the best young pitchers in baseball, and they are priced as such. However, the middling options are a bit tougher to parse between. I can see the case for several pitchers, but there isn't the apparent high-strikeout pitcher versus K-heavy lineup we love to visit. Aaron Civale ($8,900) is an option, but he hasn't struck out more than six batters in a start this year, and the Royals only strike out 22.85 percent of the time to righties. It'll be an exciting night of mixing and matching your SP1 and SP2 to optimize the kind of bats you can fit in your lineups to start the week on a winning note.
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 5/3/2021. The lineup will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also check out today's FanDuel MLB DFS lineup picks and read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports too. It’s also important to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. If you have any questions or comments, contact me on Twitter.
DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers
Walker Buehler - P, LAD at CHC ($9,600)
Coming into the 2021 season, fantasy players had concerns regarding Buehler's workload and if the Dodgers would let him go deep into games. Well, after going six innings in every start this season, I think that question is answered. He's thrown at least 90 pitches in his five games this season and will look to keep it rolling at Wrigley Field. Buehler started the season with three consecutive games with four Ks but has racked up 19 strikeouts in his last two games over 13 1/3 innings. The Cubs strike out 27.13 percent of the time to right-handed hitters and give Buehler a soft spot to continue his recent success. The 2019 All-Star has already allowed four home runs this season, but the wind isn't blowing out at Wrigley tonight, and Buehler's 1.6 percent walk rate means he won't compound his potential home-run problem with free passes. The K upside is there, and the fact he's going deeper into games this year gives me all the confidence for Buehler to be your stud pitcher.
Adam Wainwright - P, STL vs. NYM ($8,000)
Wainwright was placed on the COVID-19 Injury List over the weekend after a family member tested positive. He is still slated to start tonight's game and has the opportunity to continue his late-career renaissance against the New York Mets at Busch Stadium.
The $8,000 salary is going to have some DFS players gloss right over Wainwright. An old, soft-throwing pitcher at $8,000? No thanks. However, I think he would be far more popular at $7,800 or $7,900. It's just how our brains work sometimes. Regardless, Wainwright has 25 strikeouts over his last 21 innings and produced back-to-back games with at least 29 DraftKings fantasy points. The Mets are capable of going cold at a moment's notice, and their .346 slugging percentage against righties is the second-worst mark in all of baseball.
BONUS PITCHER: Daniel Lynch - P, KC vs. CLE ($4,000)
With Wainwright's status to be confirmed, I figured I'll throw in one more guy. It's not very often we get to roll out a pitcher that costs less than most hitters. Lynch was called up from the Alternate Site and will start the game against Cleveland. He flashed a 36.4 percent strikeout rate in Rookie ball before moving to High A and striking out 77 batters in 78 1/3 innings. The wind is blowing in at Kauffman Stadium tonight, and the Indians are bottom-10 in weighted On-Base Average (.292) and weighted Runs Created plus (87) against southpaws this season. If you feel extremely dangerous on Monday, taking the potential zero or 15 with Lynch is an all-or-nothing type of play.
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DraftKings DFS Infielders
Will Smith - C, LAD at Kyle Hendricks ($4,600)
Pop quiz! What's higher: Kyle Hendricks' total earned runs allowed plus home runs allowed or his number of strikeouts? Earned runs plus homers wins with 29 while the strikeouts sit at 21. He's had an abysmal start to the 2021 season, and it may not end tonight. Over the last 10 games, Will Smith has a .910 OPS and five extra-base hits while averaging eight fantasy points per game. Hitting in the middle of an electric Dodgers lineup will help his cause any night. DFS players can also pivot to Austin Barnes ($2,300) if Los Angeles decides to give Smith the night off.
C.J. Cron - 1B, COL vs. Aaron Sanchez ($4,600)
Cron got hot just as people were giving up on him in their season-long leagues. He returns to Denver in terrific form and ready to use his home park to his counting-stats advantage. Over his last 10 games, the first baseman is slashing .429/.500/.686 with eight runs, three home runs, five RBI, and an impressive five walks to seven strikeouts. It's always a chalk play to take anyone in Colorado, but Cron is acclimating well to his new ball club, and the results are starting to come together as a result.
Marcus Semien - 2B, TOR at Frankie Montas ($5,000)
Fire up the old revenge game narrative because Marcus Semien returns to the Oakland Coliseum for the first time since he signed with the Blue Jays in the offseason. Semien won't even need the storyline boost tonight because he is already handling a smoking hot bat. The infielder is on a 10-game on-base streak, and he's rocking a .400 OBP and a .914 OPS during the streak with two home runs, seven RBI, and FOUR stolen bases. The stolen bases are notable because he's already got six on the year and is well on his way to setting a new career-high. Semien's previous best was 14 in 2018, and his recent form suggests he is climbing out of that early-season hole he dug himself.
Travis Shaw - 3B, MIL at Vince Velasquez ($3,500)
Shaw took the Dodgers off the fence twice in their weekend series to show some signs of life. He's only hitting .220 through 25 games, but he also has five home runs and 21 RBI. He's getting the counting numbers, and that's what we care about in fantasy, whether it's season-long or DFS formats. The third baseman will have the lefty-righty advantage over Phillies starter Vince Velasquez tonight. Citizens Bank Park has been 20 percent for home runs than the league average for six-straight seasons now, and Shaw will have great odds at hitting another long ball against Velasquez and his 25 percent home run to fly ball percentage he is sporting in 2021.
Alan Trejo - SS, COL vs. Aaron Sanchez ($2,100)
Recommending Trejo totally depends on Trevor Story's health. The All-Star shortstop was hit on the hand yesterday and was removed from the game as a result. If he can't go tonight, Trejo becomes to favorite to get the starting nod. There's not a lot of expectations for the 24-year old. However, getting a piece of a Coors Field tilt for just above the minimum price is a risk I will be willing to take on this 10-game slate.
DraftKings DFS Outfielders
Chris Taylor - 2B/OF, LAD at Kyle Hendricks ($4,300)
I already mentioned Kyle Hendricks' home run issue when talking about Will Smith. Therefore, it can't be a bad idea to grab another piece of the Dodgers lineup, especially without that premium price tag that usually follows them. Taylor is averaging 11 FPPG over his last 10, and only Mike Trout, Byron Buxton, Fernando Tatis, and Kris Bryant have a higher season in FPPG. His 11 fantasy points per game are in thanks to a 1.039 OPS with 12 runs, a double, two triples, a home run, four RBI, and two stolen bases. As long as the Dodgers remained a bit banged up, Taylor is going to get playing time. To grab him at $4,300 with the way he is hitting the ball is a steal.
Luis Arraez - OF, MIN vs. Dane Dunning ($3,800)
When the Twins face right-handers, Arraez moves to the top of the lineup. While Dane Dunning (3.97 ERA, 2.21 FIP) has been better than advertised this season, I still like the Twins to rough him up at Target Field. This lineup has scored at least nine runs in three of their last four games, and they have a lot of hot hitters up and down the roster. Arraez has rather extreme splits based on what kind of hurler he faces. This season, the second baseman has a fantastic 158 wRC+ against right-handers, but it falls to a 56 wRC+ against southpaws. Facing a righty with a high-scoring offense behind him should allow Arraez to cross home plate at least once.
Alex Kirilloff - OF, MIN vs. Dane Dunning ($2,900)
The Twins top prospect announced his arrival in the big leagues over the weekend as Kirilloff took off with his first, second, third, and fourth home runs in his young major-league career. After a rough few games to start his 2021 campaign, the rookie has settled down and is becoming accustomed to the level of play at the majors. Three of his four home runs had an exit velocity above 105 miles per hour, and he hit all four to either straightaway center or opposite field. That's something that you love to see from such a young bat. He's still $2,900 on DraftKings, but it won't say that way for long. With the lefty-righty advantage and his recent power surge, it would be negligent not to have one share of Kirilloff in a lineup.
DraftKings DFS Stacks
- Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs (Kyle Hendricks, RHP)
- Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers (Dane Dunning, RHP)
- Sneaky Stack: Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays (Tyler Glasnow, RHP)
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