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Analysis of five fantasy baseball second basemen drafted in the later rounds. Are these 2B undervalued players and potential sleepers to target in deeper drafts?
Once you reach the middle-to-late rounds of drafts, everyone wants to draft some upside fliers that can provide a great return on value. You can take a risk or two on a variety of different players, including a prospect, forgotten veterans, players returning from injuries, or even players with skills but have playing time concerns. But it's essential to know the player pool so you can take a chance at a spot in the draft that you're comfortable without deviating from your overall strategy, and also avoid players with some question marks coming into the season.
Today we are looking at some later-round second basemen for you to consider drafting, and also those to be cautious of. Are their ADPs undervalued? Will they make significant contributions and be one of your later-round draft sleepers? Read on to see our take.
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Jorge Polanco, 2B/SS
Minnesota Twins middle infielder Jorge Polanco burst onto the scene in 2019 when he swatted 22 home runs with a .295/.356/.485 slash line. His truncated 2020 season paled in comparison, though. Polanco underwent offseason surgery to remove a bone spur and chip from his ankle. Twins president Derek Falvey noted that the shortstop played hurt for "a large portion of the 2020 season."
His subpar .258/.304/.354 line with just four home runs and 19 RBI over 55 games would corroborate that fact. His barrel rate had improved every year from 2016 (2.5%) to 2019 (6.7%) before plummeting to 2.8% last season. The same can be said for his launch angle, which fell from a career-high 18.9 degrees in 2019 to 16.1 in 2020. On the positive side, Polanco's hard-hit rate (33.3%) stayed about the same between 2019 and 2020, and he's still a .278 career hitter with a zone-contact rate of 90.2% over seven MLB seasons. The addition of Andrelton Simmons should shift Polanco over to second base, which would grant him dual-eligibility in fantasy leagues once he qualifies.
Polanco got a chance to get back on track in 2021 but he is hard to trust as a fantasy starter given his recent injury history -- he's now had right ankle surgery in consecutive offseasons. While 2019 could serve as the high-water mark for his career in terms of power, he's a solid contact hitter that gives you a piece of the potent Twins lineup. If his ankle rehab goes well and he enters spring training with a clean bill of health then he's a low-risk (current ADP of 206) middle-infield option with reasonable upside.
David Fletcher, 2B/3B/SS
David Fletcher is everyone's favorite old-school, contact hitter. In last year's shortened season, we saw him hit a career-best .319 with an .801 OPS. Fletcher doesn't worry about putting the ball in the air or even making solid contact. He puts the ball in play and lets volume be his friend. He was in the 98th percentile in K-rate and 100th percentile in whiff rate. Through three career seasons, Fletcher's 31.5% line-drive percentage is 5.8 points better than average. There are no secrets here.
Unfortunately, this type of performance simply doesn't translate to useful fantasy production. Fletcher's absolute peak - which probably looks like 2020 stretched out over a full campaign - makes him a one-category fantasy asset and nothing else. His ceiling is incredibly low because he possesses no power and little to no speed production. A bad luck BABIP season makes him unusable.
For his career, Fletcher has barreled up three total pitches. His hard-hit percentage was in the bottom one percent this past season. His baserunning runs above average have been in the negative each of the past two seasons. Instead of feeling like a safe place to turn in the back of drafts, he should be treated like a one-category commodity, a la Jon Berti or Manuel Margot. That has value, especially for lineups lacking expected batting average, but it places Fletcher's 202 ADP on the pricey end.
Jake Cronenworth, 2B/SS/1B
Jake Cronenworth enjoyed a fantastic rookie campaign with San Diego in 2020, hitting .285/.354/.477 with four homers and three steals over 192 PAs. His plate discipline was excellent, with a 9.4 BB% against a 15.6 K% backed by both his MiLB resume and outstanding peripherals (22.4% chase rate, 5.8 SwStr%). His .324 BABIP also looks sustainable thanks to an above-average 25.2 LD% and below-average 29.4 FB%. In fact, Cronenworth's .324 xBA suggests that he offers significant batting average upside!
Sadly, that strong average comes at the expense of power potential. Cronenworth doesn't hit that many flies, and his 91.5 mph average airborne exit velocity was below-average. He should still get a handful of homers thanks to his solid 10.5% rate of Brls/BBE, and Baseball Savant thought he deserved a higher slugging percentage as well at .541. The Padres hit Cronenworth everywhere in 2020, and his fantasy stock would improve if he looks like he'll lock down a significant lineup spot in Spring Training.
Overall, the 26-year-old has a similar profile to Placido Polanco: a consistent producer who savvy fantasy managers would take in the later rounds to offset batting average risk elsewhere in their lineups. Cronenworth is eligible at three different positions (1B, 2B, SS) and affordably-priced at an ADP of 150.68, making him a great addition regardless.
Andres Gimenez, 2B/3B/SS
Long one of the New York Mets' top prospects, shortstop Andres Gimenez made his debut in 2020, hitting .263/.333/.398 with 3 HR and 8 SB across 49 games at 2B, SS, and 3B. After being one of the pieces moved to Cleveland in the Francisco Lindor trade, there is some optimism around Gimenez in fantasy circles heading into 2021. Last year, as has long been with the case with Gimenez, the left-handed hitter displayed great defensive versatility and 94th-percentile speed, but little in the way of patience (5.3 BB%) or power (.136 ISO).
While Gimenez makes contact with above-average consistency, he does little damage with it, finishing in the 20th-percentile in exit velocity and 11th-percentile in barrel rate. His calling card in fantasy will be a defensive versatility that should keep him on the field often in Cleveland and the speed to rack up stolen bases when he gets on base. However, people looking for cheap steals should temper expectations since Gimenez is an aggressive hitter with an above-average Swing% and Chase% who has never put up high walk rates in the minor leagues.
He's likely to finish with an average around .250 with 8-10 HR and anywhere between 25-30 SB. That's nothing to turn your nose up at, but he's not going to help much in counting categories or with AVG/OBP, so if pitchers start taking advantage of his aggressiveness and keep him off the bases, thereby driving his SB total down closer to 20, you're not going to be getting a whole lot for his current ADP of 150. Considering Leody Tavares is going around 170, Nick Madrigal has an ADP of 190, and Jon Berti is being taken pick 245, I'd rather wait than take Gimenez at this current cost.
Jean Segura, 2B/3B
Philadelphia Phillies infielder Jean Segura successfully averted disaster in 2020. Any type of slow start in an abbreviated season can doom even the best players, especially in a truncated season. Through his first 13 plate appearances, he slashed .167/.231/.167 before turning it around in August and September. In his final 204 plate appearances, he put up a productive .272/7/25/27/2 line.
He didn't steal double-digit bases for the first time since 2012, but it also came in just a 60-game season. After attempting to steal a base at least 30 times each year from 2014 to 2018, he's attempted just 16 steals since the start of 2019. The Phillies still have holes to fill, but they were among baseball's highest scoring teams last season, and Segura used a career-high walk rate (10.6%) to boost his on-base percentage up to .347.
He also improved his launch angle (11.6 degrees) and his barrel percentage (6.1%) to personal bests, showing a clear change in the process to validate his highest ISO (.156) since 2016 (.181 with Arizona). He brings solid value as a consistent contributor to a number of categories, even if his steals don't trend back up at his current 195 ADP.
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