RADIO
For the third straight week, we bag two out of three correct picks to make a profit but are denied the big parlay payout by the odd goal. Chelsea and Newcastle couldn't find that elusive third goal between them with the former missing numerous good chances and the latter hitting the woodwork. All the more frustrating was it being game 1 as on Sunday, game 2 and 3 picks came in with very little concern. That's the nature of the beast with all ten-weekend fixtures being played at different times over three or four days. We go again this week looking to keep the profit train going and hopefully bag that parlay.
- Picks total - 8 out of 18
- Parlays - 0 out of 6
- Correct scores - 3 out of 18
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bet I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.
Playing games without any fans in the stadium is still something of an anomaly that impacts teams differently so it's a wise move to take into consideration these things before you place any bet. I won't be reviewing every game, but just identifying the three games I believe have the best value bet. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.
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Saturday, November 28th, 2020
Leeds United @ Everton - 12:30 pm ET
After back-to-back 4-1 defeats, Leeds picked up a point with a goalless draw at home to Arsenal last weekend, in which they got to play 10-men for nearly the whole of the second half. Although Leeds create opportunities, they never looked clinical in the attacking positions and it was in fact Arsenal who had the best chance to nick a win late on. While the clean sheet and point will have been welcomed, they've kept as many clean sheets (3) as games in which they've conceded four. Leeds is certainly a team worth watching for exciting games as their expected goals rank high both for and against xGA of 15.2 is the second-highest and xG of 15.0 is the third most.
Everton managed to end a run of three straight defeats with a 3-2 win against Fulham. Like Leeds, Everton has been great to watch for the neutral fan with two or more goals conceded in every game since their opening day clean sheet. They're also the league's tied fourth-highest scorers with 19 goals in nine games. In Everton's four home games this season, there's been a total of 21 goals (12 for and 9 against), with both teams scoring in each of them.
Neither side has had a European competition game in midweek so they should both be fresh and with 66 goals in their 18 games combined, goals should be the order of play again here.
Leeds United 14th - 11 pts
Everton 6th - 16 pts
Score prediction: Everton 3 - 2 Leeds United (Draftkings odds +1700)
Betting Pick:
- Winner/Total Goals - Everton and over 2.5 @ +180 (Pinnacle)
Sunday, November 29th, 2020
Wolves @ Arsenal - 2:15 pm ET
Wolves have had an up-and-down start to the season but have only lost one of their last six league games (a 1-0 defeat to Leicester City) but after drawing against Southampton last week, they now have just one win in their last four league games. Bucking the trend of goals galore in the EPL this season, Wolves' last six games have all had two or fewer total goals making it a total of seven such games this season.
For Arsenal, it's been a similar story with goals hard to come by despite making good chances in all of their games. Arsenal has scored just one goal in their last five league games and it's been over seven hours since they scored in open play. Defensively, outside of the late capitulation against Aston Villa, Arsenal has been solid and only conceded more than once in one other game, away at champions Liverpool.
Both teams have striking similarities having scored nine goals (tied-4th fewest) and conceded ten (tied-2nd fewest) this season. Since Wolves gained promotion to the EPL, the two teams have played four times with two draws and a win each. Both games at Arsenal have ended in a 1-1 draw and given how their seasons have started, I think we see another tight and low-scoring affair. The other similarity between these two sides is the corners (or lack of) they both have had with Wolves being awarded 40 corners and Arsenal 38 this season (both in the bottom half after nine games each). I'm fully expecting a low scoring game with few corners and a cagey 90 minutes.
Wolves 9th - 14 pts
Arsenal 12th - 13 pts
Score prediction: Arsenal 1 - 1 Wolves (Draftkings odds +525)
Betting Pick:
- Single-game parlay - Total goals under 2.5 and total corners under 12.5 @ +115 (Draftkings)
Monday, November 30th, 2020
Fulham @ Leicester City - 12:30 pm ET
Leicester's three-game winning streak was comprehensively ended by Liverpool last weekend, losing 3-0 to the reigning champions. Prior to that game, they were averaging over two goals scored a game and were tied for the fewest goals conceded. One thing they did manage to keep up during last weekend's loss was their league-leading yellow card count with another two bookings taking their season total up to 21 in nine games.
For Fulham, they lost their seventh game of the season against Everton which leaves them with just four points from their nine games and dropped them back into the relegation zone. Five of Fulham's losses have been by one goal (including their last three defeats) so they aren't getting blown out by teams and Leicester is in the midst of a European campaign which is seeing them play in midweek too.
While I believe Leicester win and could do so comfortably, their odds of winning are floating around the -200 mark so offers little value. An area that does offer potential is the total number of bookings as Fulham is currently second in the league for the most bookings with 20 in nine games. So we have the two most cautioned teams and the referee for this game is slightly inexperienced but has given six yellow cards in his two EPL games this season.
Fulham 18th - 4 pts
Leicester City 4th - 18 pts
Score prediction: Leicester City 3 - 0 Fulham (Draftkings odds +950)
Betting Pick:
- Single-game parlay - Leicester City to win and over 2.5 total cards @ +120 (Draftkings)
Parlay
- You can take all three picks @ +1324. Or you can play things safer with Everton & Leicester both to win and Arsenal win/draw double chance @ +289
At the time of writing, Pinnacle hadn't released their full election of odds for these games and they generally offer better correct score odds than Draftkings so go check the market before placing your bets.
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly! Check back for more EPL betting picks next week!
