Monday Night Football Starts and Sits: Week 3 Matchup Analysis

September 28, 2020

Fantasy football starts/sits and lineups advice for Week 3 of Monday Night Football. Dan Fornek analyzes in-depth matchups with a detailed breakdown of the Ravens and Chiefs.

If you're reading this, your fantasy team was probably impacted by a significant injury during week 2. It was a bloodbath in the fantasy streets, especially for a lot of player's popular early-round selections. Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Davante Adams, Raheem Mostert, and Courtland Sutton all face injuries that put their week 3 in doubt, joining Michael Thomas and George Kittle among many, many others from week 1.

The good news? Our Monday Night matchup will proceed relatively unscathed. It is hard to imagine a better and more exciting matchup on Monday night football. The Chiefs and the Ravens both enter the contest undefeated with two of the most exciting young quarterbacks and an array of explosive weapons. Each team features a rookie running back that has logged productive snaps this year, elite tight ends, and wide receivers with game-breaking speed.

There weren't many names that I found myself disliking as starters this week (rightfully so considering most of them were drafted in the first six rounds of your fantasy draft), but make sure to look below for some Hail Mary plays that could save your week 3 matchup if needed or some players to fade ahead of Monday's matchup. At the very least, sit back and get a preview of what should be one of the most exciting matchups of the year... as well as a potential AFC Championship game matchup down the road.

Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens

Game time: Monday 9/28 @ 8:15 EST

Game line: Baltimore -3.5

Over/Under: 55

Must-Starts

Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL)

Lamar Jackson took his MVP level performance from the 2019 season and has somehow found a way to raise the bar in 2020. Jackson is completing 77.6% of his passes this season with 479 yards and four touchdowns and zero interceptions. He also has 23 carries for 99 yards, further reinforcing his dual-threat capabilities. The Chiefs have been solid against quarterbacks this season (21.5 points per game) but struggled to stop Justin Herbert in a spot start for most of their week 2 game.

Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)

On the other side, Patrick Mahomes has seemingly returned to his MVP form from 2018. Mahomes is completing 64.6% of his passes for 513 yards and five touchdowns with zero interceptions through two games against the Texans and the Chargers. Mahomes has also gotten it done with his legs, carrying the ball six times for 54 yards in those two contests. The Ravens present a unique challenge since they are allowing just 12.3 points per week to quarterbacks so far and have allowed as many touchdowns as they’re gotten interceptions (2).

Mark Ingram II (RB, BAL)

Mark Ingram bounced back in a big way in week 2, carrying the ball nine times for 55 yards and a touchdown (while adding two receptions for 22 yards) in a decisive 33-16 victory over the Houston Texans. People were worried about Ingram after rookie J.K. Dobbins punched in two scores week 1, but it seems the Ravens will use Ingram as their lead back as long as games are close. The snap share between Ingram, Gus Edwards, and Dobbins is concerning, but this game should stay close enough to make Ingram the back to play on Monday night.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB, KC) 

After Edwards-Helaire erupted on to the NFL scene in his week 1 debut on Thursday night (25 carries, 138 yards, and a touchdown), CEH came back to Earth a little bit against a stout Chargers run defense. Clyde Edwards-Helaire had just 10 carries for 38 yards in week 2 but added six receptions (on eight targets) for 32 yards in an overtime win for Kansas City. CEH will likely have boom or bust weeks throughout his rookie season, and Monday night will be no exception. The Ravens are allowing just 9.1 points per week to running backs, tied for the best mark in the NFL with the Chargers thus far. With Sammy Watkins looking unlikely to play, CEH could find a bigger role in the passing game, which gives him good upside once again.

Marquise Brown (WR, BAL)

Marquise Brown hasn’t found the end zone yet in 2020, but so far his workload looks to have some more consistency than he saw in his rookie season. ‘Hollywood’ Brown has been targeted 12 times in two games, catching 10 passes for 143 yards. Since both games got out of hand in a hurry, the Ravens were content to use their run game to burn clock and get to the next week. However, the Chiefs boast one of the few offenses in the NFL that can keep pace with the Ravens, which should give Brown a chance to eclipse his weekly average of six targets. Kansas City is allowing just 17.8 points per week to opposing wide receivers in fantasy this season but hasn’t seen anyone with the ability of the Hollywood Brown/Lamar Jackson tandem.

Tyreek Hill (WR, KC)

Tyreek Hill will always be a boom or bust play that makes his way into your weekly lineups regardless of matchup thanks to his explosive speed. Hill was kept in check for a majority of the Chiefs week 2 game against the Chargers. However, a late 54-yard touchdown pass from Patrick Mahomes moved him from a lineup blunder to a strong week 2 play. Hill finished with five receptions (on 11 targets) for 99 yards and a score despite playing three quiet quarters. The Ravens are allowing an NFL-low 13.3 fantasy points per game to wideouts this season thanks to zero touchdowns surrendered, but all it takes is one mistake or blown coverage to make him a Monday night lineup savior.

Mark Andrews (TE, BAL)

Mark Andrews should have been geared up for a big game in week 2 against the Texans, but ultimately fell flat. Andrews was targeted just three times, catching one pass for 29 yards while also seeing a decrease in snap share from week one (71% down to 58%). The Ravens took a 20-10 lead into halftime and were never really threatened again, giving the team a chance to rest Andrews ahead of his huge matchup. Kansas City has been average against tight ends this season, allowing 10.1 points per week thanks to 10 receptions for 141 yards and a touchdown. Andrews is still Lamar Jackson’s favorite target, so he could be poised for a big Monday night showing.

Travis Kelce (TE, KC)

On the other side of things, Travis Kelce continues to thrive as Patrick Mahomes short to intermediate weapon. Kelce saw a whopping 14 targets against the Chargers, catching nine passes for 90 yards and his second touchdown of the year. Kelce continues to feast on defenses that are forced to playback to limit the vertical shots the Chiefs can take in their offense. If the Ravens have shown one defensive weakness this season, it is their play against tight ends. Through two weeks, they are allowing 13.4 points per week to the position, good for the fifth-worst mark in the NFL to date.

Consider Sitting

Darrel Williams / Darwin Thompson (RB, KC)

If you find yourself down points heading into Monday night, the Darrel Williams and Darwin Thompson train wagon is not the one you want to hitch your team too. After functioning as the team’s primary backup in week 1, Williams left Sunday’s game against the Chargers with an ankle injury and has been listed as questionable. In his absence, Darwin Thompson carried the ball four times for 21 yards against the Chargers. Make no mistake about it though, Clyde Edwards-Helaire is the back to play in Kansas City, logging over 60% of the team’s offensive snaps through two weeks. Any other RB in this backfield is worth avoiding at this point in the season.

Gus Edwards (RB, BAL)

Gus Edwards has seen a solid workload through two weeks, tallying 14 carries for 90 yards in the Ravens offense. However, he has only played an average of 28% of the team’s offensive snaps and has primarily been used as the Ravens' closer back, taking carries in the fourth quarter of two blowout victories. This game will likely be close between two high-powered offenses, which could limit the usage of Gus Edwards outside of short-yardage situations. Even if the Ravens get into the red zone, they are more inclined to utilize Mark Ingram, J.K. Dobbins, or Lamar Jackson over Edwards. If you stashed him, keep him on the bench.

Sammy Watkins (WR, KC)

Sammy Watkins followed up his big week 1 against Houston (seven receptions, 82 yards, and a touchdown) with a quiet week 2 against the Chargers. Watkins was targeted three times, catching one pass for 11 yards before a concussion knocked him out of the game. Watkins will have an extra day to clear concussion protocol, but head injuries are tricky and Kansas City has the weapons to give Watkins time to recover. Even if he can suit up, there are likely stronger options that you can use over a player who missed practice all week against one of the toughest secondaries in the NFL this season.

Potential Sleepers

J.K. Dobbins (RB, BAL)

Social media erupted after J.K. Dobbins was featured (especially on the goal line) in week 1 against Cleveland. Dobbins carried the ball seven times for 22 yards and two touchdowns in week 1. However, he came back down to earth in his second game, logging just two carries for 48 yards and one reception for 13 yards against Houston. Dobbins was kept on the bench most of the game, but it is anybody’s guess who the Ravens are going to feature every week. If you find yourself down heading into Monday night, Dobbins could have massive upside, especially if the Ravens need to lean on his explosiveness in the backfield.

Miles Boykin (WR, BAL)

Miles Boykin has quietly emerged as the third target for Lamar Jackson throughout the early part of 2020. Boykin has been targeted nine times, catching seven passes for 75 yards through two games. More importantly, Boykin is consistently on the field this year, logging a 68% snap share in week 1 and a 74% snap share in week 2 after averaging just 38% of the team’s snaps in 2019. Boykin is having modest totals in the passing game thus far but has the explosiveness to create a big play, especially if the Chiefs are too busy worrying about Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews and let Boykin get loose deep down the field.

Demarcus Robinson (WR, KC)

We likely won’t know Sammy Watkins’ status for week 3 until kickoff, making finding his replacement very difficult. If you find yourself in a bind, Demarcus Robinson is as good of a stash as any for your week 3 lineup (assuming you need a prayer to win). Robinson has been targeted 10 times this season, registering six catches for 48 yards through two games. He played 62% of the Kansas City snaps against the Chargers and saw more action on the field once Sammy Watkins was knocked out. Robinson has field-stretching speed and just needs to break one tackle to have a big day. Don’t start him unless you need him, but at least he is a piece of the KC offense that can probably be found on waivers.

Mecole Hardman (WR, KC)

Conversely, Mecole Hardman represents the ultimate boom or bust play. If Watkins is inactive, Hardman could see a ton more snaps, which gives him the ability to break a big play at any time. Hardman played 65% of the Chiefs snaps in week 2, which was a massive jump from the 29% he logged week 1. Hardman was a very efficient deep threat who just needs an opportunity to play to have a massive week for your lineup. Add in his ability to take a kick or punt return to the house and he could be worth a flyer if you need a big play on Monday night to try and get a victory from the jaws of defeat.

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