Week 8 Consistency Reports - Start/Sit Decisions

October 27, 2018

Measuring fantasy football performance using consistency data to help make start/sit lineup decisions. Ben Rolfe analyzes the first seven weeks of NFL player data.

At every position other than tight end we are seeing fairly consistent names appearing in the top-10/15/25. Outside of that we still have a lot of boom-or-bust players. This week I want to focus on how you can use the information below to make those agonizing decisions about the high-ceiling, low-floor players. For running back we probably have 15 consistent must-start running backs and that number appears to be growing a little. At receiver we have close to 25 guys and at quarterback we have a handful. Beyond that it is about playing the matchups. The best way to do this is to go and look at the fantasy points surrendered to a certain position by their opponents. Once you have a list of the ten worst against that position you can cross-check it with the COR and ceiling numbers below. That should tell you which of the borderline guys are worth starting in most leagues. If that does not work look at the next five teams and so on until you are happy with your decisions.

The information I am going to use in this articles comes from FFstatistics.com, founded by the person who used to write this article, Addison Hayes. Here are the links to the main articles last year where Addison introduced his key terms. The three main elements are standard deviation (explained here), calculations of players floors and ceiling (explained here) and then finally the use of the Coefficient of Variation to calculate Consistency Ratings or COR (explained here). This paragraph is going to be present a lot this year for those of you interested in the math behind the numbers below.

A final note for this article is that although this article will be published following Thursday Night Football, the numbers from those games will not be included. I will also be unlikely to touch on those players unless they stand out as major players you should be targeting on the following week's waiver wires. Therefore, do not be surprised to not see much mention of those players below.

Quarterbacks

The table above (and each table in the article) is sorted by players 2018 COR through three games from largest to smallest. At this stage of the season you are pretty much playing the matchups with anyone in the top-15. No one stands out as wrong being in there. Smith and Wilson have the lowest ceilings but in the right matchup both are startable options.

Trubisky is infuriating but he seems to be settling down a little bit. Th occasion got the best of him early last Sunday but he bounced back well in this game. Dalton and Beathard are only really options to use when your starter is on bye an they have favorable matchups. Both will have wild swings in output.

I want to touch on Blake Bortles quickly. He has been a startable fantasy asset in three weeks this year. Probably only one of them was truly predictable. No many were starting him Week 2 against the Patriots and the Jets game was also a questionable start. The only week he was a consensus start was against the Chiefs. Every year Bortles has put up wonderful fantasy numbers but they are always hard to predict. Save yourself the pain and do what the Jaguars should be doing and walk away!

Running Backs

With Sony Michel now also injured it is time to believe in White. His role seems fixed in that offense and he may even see an increased number of carries this week. Tevin Coleman might be the most infuriating name in the top-15. Last week two long rushes and touchdown saved him from an abject day. He is on a bye this week but if I can trade him away in a package deal I am absolutely doing it. I do not want that headache on my hands.

Kerryon Johnson has carved himself out a role with how effective he has been with the Lions. There will still be frustrating weeks when Blount steals a touchdown or Theo Riddick sees some extra receptions but generally Johnson should be started as a RB2 going forward.

I want to see how the time shares work themselves out for Hyde this week but I think there is a good chance he could be a really nice start of he can see 60-75% of the carries over the next few weeks. A name you will notice is missing here is Nick Chubb. If we started his consistency rating from last week going forward I expect him to look pretty good in five weeks time. I laid out my reasons for thinking that here. Marlon Mack is another name low on this list that I am starting anytime he is healthy and set to be active for the Colts.

Wide Receivers

I am interested to see Curtis Samuel pop into the top-10 this week. He has had touchdowns each of the last two weeks but only has five touches on the season. He is a name to monitor going forward to see if they continue to use him creatively. He is probably the only name in the top-15 that really stand out as being out of place.

Kenny Golladay had quite a big fall this week after a tough outing against the Dophins. This is a case where the numbers lie a little bit as Golladay had a touchdown reception called back on a holding penalty. If that touchdown stands he would be a lot higher in these ratings. However, we are seeing the effect of a three receiver offense on the Lions receivers. Tate is doing fine, averaging six receptions per game but Jones is averaging just three receptions per game and that is reflected in his ranking at 39.

Outside of the anomalies int he top-25 (Samuel and Carter) all of those guys are pretty much must-start when active. Beyond that you are looking at matchup dependent guys. In these situations you should combine their ceiling projections with the average points conceded against that position by their opponents to get a feel for who to start.

Tight Ends

Ahhhh the position where consistency goes to pot. This is the only position where not one single player has a COR over 100. We have some very good players in here but the position is just inherently variable making it tough to even trust players previously deemed studs. This is a true streaming position where you perhaps need to look at matchups and ceiling more than consistency.

If Jack Doyle is active this week then that should be the start of his climb back up the rankings. Doyle was really good until fumbling in Week 1, but was then limited in Week 2 and we have not seen him since. Uzomah and Seals-Jones were frustrating last week but I think they are worth trusting again this week in deeper leagues.

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