September 10, 2016

Pierre Camus' 2016 fantasy football tiered rankings for week one running backs (RB) - waiver wire pickups, adds & sleepers for PPR and non-PPR. These are NFL RBs to target.

It's finally here. Opening week of the NFL season is basically Christmas Day for giddy football fans. For rabid fantasy football managers such as myself, this goes double. Admit it - as much as you are following your favorite team to see how they are shaping up this year, you are spending just as much time scanning the bottom line to see which of those players you followed in the pre-season will surprise. Then you can say "I called it!" and tweet furiously to brag about your prognostication skills. OK, maybe that's just me. Anyway, running back is usually the first position where sudden breakout candidates emerge. Finding the right waiver wire pick early on can turn around your season if you choose wisely (think DeAngelo Williams last season).

Each week, this article will aim to highlight running backs that you should consider targeting on your league's waiver wire. Players will be split up into three tiers from most desirable to most desperate. I will also include players at the bottom of this list that you might consider cutting in order to make room for your new additions. All players listed have 50% or less ownership levels across Fleaflicker leagues.

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Frontrunners for Week 1 - Running Backs Waiver Wire

This group consists of running backs that I would unconditionally recommend adding if they are available on your waiver wire. These players have either earned a greater workload due to injury or performance issues or shown that they can be weekly contributors to their NFL teams.

Christine Michael (RB, SEA) - 50% owned

The words every fantasy owner hates to hear may be a reality in Seattle as the regular season breaks. Thomas Rawls and Christine Michael may indeed form a dreaded Running Back By Committee. Bad news for Thomas Rawls owners leads to an opportunity for value with Michael on the waiver wire. Up to now, Michael has been a bust in the NFL, totaling just 497 rushing yards over three seasons. This pre-season he has looked like a different player, however, running with the first team offense. Even as Rawls returned for the final pre-season game, it was Michael lining up with the starters. He has the breakaway speed to be a big play threat behind a solid offensive line and could be worth a start for owners who waited on the RB position in drafts.

Spencer Ware (RB, KC) - 50% owned

The word is out already and Ware barely makes the cutoff here with 50% ownership. Jamaal Charles is not ready for a full workload as the season opens and Charcandrick West has experienced elbow issues recently, leaving Ware as the top back in week one. Ware impressed in his brief opportunity last season, averaging 5.6 yards per carry and scoring six TD despite only starting two games. The newfound trio of running backs in KC may eat into each other's value throughout the season, but Ware is the best bet right now until Charles takes back the reins. He is still worth rostering until Charles proves he is healthy.

James White (RB, NE) - 37% owned

With Dion Lewis out for at least the first half of the season, there can only be one explanation for White's low ownership percentage. You can't trust the Patriots. Bill Belichick could very well feature undrafted rookie D.J. Foster just to mess with us. Realistically, LeGarrette Blount figures to be the main back on early downs, with White seeing time in pass-catching situations. White isn't as explosive as Lewis, but he did catch 40 passes for 410 yards and 4 touchdowns in limited time last year. He nearly matched Lewis in yards per reception with 10.3, compared to 10.8. Week one could be a good one for White as the Patriots are on the road against the top offensive team last year in Arizona. Take Tom Brady out of the equation and backup Jimmy Garoppolo will probably be dumping it off to White frequently. In PPR formats, White should be considered a strong RB2 while he is a borderline starter in standard leagues.

In the Running - Week 1 Running Backs Waiver Wire

This group consists of running backs widely available on the waiver wire who aren't must-adds, but could be worth stashing or streaming if the above options are already taken.

Rob Kelley (RB, WAS) - 7% owned

Matt Jones has missed the last two exhibition games and is iffy with an AC joint sprain. Chris Thompson is listed as questionable with shoulder and knee issues. Rookie Keith Marshall will miss at least three weeks and has been placed on short-term IR. Washington cut Mack Brown, despite an impressive pre-season. Enter undrafted rookie from Tulane, Rob Kelley. Kelley himself has looked sharp, amassing 99 yards and averaging 4.5 Y/A. The pass-heavy Redskins were 20th in rushing last season, averaging less than 100 YPG, so don't expect high volume. Kelley could be a sneaky option early in the season though, especially if he finds his way into the end zone.

Darren Sproles (RB, PHI) - 44% owned

The fact that Philadelphia is suddenly relying on #2 overall pick Carson Wentz, if he's even healthy enough to start, is not inspiring for the Eagles offense as a whole. Fortunately, Cleveland is coming to town with a defense that ranked 27th in yardage allowed last season. Sproles is more of a receiving threat than a runner, which makes him a PPR darling. Standard league owners shouldn't feel compelled to start Sproles unless you don't have a better option.

DeAndre Washington (RB, OAK) - 25% owned

Washington showed that he is capable of being more than just a pass-catching back with 55 yards on eight carries against Tennessee in the third pre-season game. At 5'8", he doesn't profile as a lead runner, but he can surely carve out a role for himself in Oakland's offense. Most of that work will be on obvious passing downs at first, but he could eventually serve as a nice complement for Latavius Murray.

Devontae Booker (RB, DEN) - 17% owned

The inevitable release of Ronnie Hillman makes Booker the clear-cut #2 back for the defending champs. C.J. Anderson couldn't hang onto the starting job last season, so Booker could very well be a factor sooner than expected. By the end of the year, it wouldn't be at all surprising to see the Broncos with a rookie starting at quarterback and running back. Booker's value in week one is limited, but he could make for a smart stash if you have the roster space.

Honorable Mentions: Bilal Powell (RB, NYJ) - 43% owned, James Starks (RB, GB) - 27% owned

Dark Horses - Week 1 Running Backs Waiver Wire

This group consists of running backs who are strictly desperation plays. They could serve as a bye week fill-in, short-term injury replacement or weekly lottery ticket.

Terrance West (RB, BAL) - 26% owned

The surprise cut of Justin Forsett on Saturday seemed to clarify Baltimore's murky running back situation, making West the big winner. Then, he re-signs days later. The coaches seemed happy enough with West in the pre-season to risk losing Forsett briefly, but he is not start worthy with Forsett still in the mix. Kenneth Dixon figures to be the best long-term add, but he will be out four weeks while he recovers from a knee injury. In the meanwhile, it will be West seeing action on 1st/2nd down while Javorius Allen comes in on passing downs. West has done little with his chances in Cleveland, averaging less than four yards per carry in 233 rushing attempts. Maybe a change of scenery will help, but don't count on it. Baltimore finished the year 26th in RushYPG at 92.4.

Javorius Allen (RB, BAL) - 10% owned

Although some favor Allen over West in terms of talent (I won't disagree there), it seems like Allen will see less carries initially. Allen ran for 514 yards last season on 137 carries, but only crossed the goal line once. He should continue to be a pass-catching threat, as he caught 45 passes for 353 yards, which was good for third on the team. In full PPR scoring systems, Allen can be considered an RB3 in deeper leagues. If his workload increases on the ground, he may enter starting territory.

Jordan Howard (RB, CHI) - 10% owned

Depending on how much faith you have in Jeremy Langford, fifth-round pick Jordan Howard could be a non-factor or a top sleeper. After doing very little in three pre-season games, he exploded for 107 yards and a TD in the finale. Langford is the undisputed starter for now, but Howard is a player to watch.

Jerick McKinnon (RB, MIN) - 24% owned

You know the drill by now. McKinnon will spend most of the game sitting and watching AP pile up yards. If/when he gets the chance, McKinnon will serve as a double threat out of the backfield. He put up 444 combined yards last season but will not produce much more unless (god forbid) Adrian Peterson suffers a serious injury. No, I'm not superstitious in any way, so don't blame me for jinxing him if it happens. He is strictly a handcuff for AP owners.

Honorable Mentions: Alfred Morris (RB, DAL) - 24% owned, Chris Johnson (RB, ARI) - 15% owned

Also-Rans

Dion Lewis (RB, NE) - 37% owned

Those who drafted in July or early August before learning that Lewis would be out almost half the season were no doubt disappointed to find they burned a mid-round pick for nothing. While he could return to fantasy prominence late in the season, there is no need to take up valuable roster space when there is a wealth of options available. If you have an IR spot in your league, by all means keep him. Otherwise, cut bait now and add him later.

Charcandrick West (RB, KC) - 6% owned

Widely expected to be the next in line behind Jamaal Charles, an elbow issue is holding him back to start the season. If Spencer Ware takes advantage of his opportunity, West may not be the handcuff to own any more. In leagues with deep benches, you might want to hang on for another week or two, but West's value could evaporate soon.

Marshawn Lynch (RB, SEA) - 3% owned

For some reason, Lynch has an ownership level that is above zero. Just stop it. You're not being clever by adding him in case he suddenly unretires. Same goes for Calvin Johnson. Eat some Skittles and get over it.

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