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Andrew Ball fantasy football predictions for wide receivers in 2026. Will Tetairoa McMillan, Jaylen Waddle, Christian Watson, Davante Adams, and Garrett Wilson boom or bust this season?
Looking for a high-upside wide receiver in the third or fourth rounds? From DeVonta Smith to Tetairoa McMillan, there are a handful of pass-catchers who could fit the bill.
What about the fifth and sixth rounds? Same problem. DJ Moore, the Bears wideouts, Mike Evans, and more.
How do you choose? Let's sort through some of the receivers and determine whether they're due for a boom or bust season in 2026. For more wide receiver draft advice, check out my pros and cons series where I highlight four other receivers in the middle-round range.
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Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers
There's plenty of enthusiasm about Tetairoa McMillan, now entering his second professional season after securing 70 catches for 1,014 yards and seven touchdowns in his debut campaign. How much higher is his ceiling in 2026?
The fantasy nerds (myself included) love McMillan's advanced metrics: 89.4% route participation rate (ninth), 1.94 yards per route run (23rd), 28.5% first-read rate (15th), and 23.1% of Carolina's targets (14th), per Fantasy Points Data. But as we know through years of watching the likes of Terry McLaurin and Allen Robinson II, the wide receiver's ability is only half the battle.
Bryce Young had a career-best season in the same way Saquon Barkley had a down year. It's all relative. His averages? 188.2 yards per game (31st), 6.3 yards per attempt (39th among quarterbacks with at least 50 attempts), and a 63.6% completion rate (31st, same qualifier) may be above average for him, but the ranks among the rest of the league tell the story. Pick a random Carolina box score. The odds are overwhelmingly in your favor that the former first overall pick threw for fewer than 200 yards.
The Panthers are a run-first team, and despite all of Young's shortcomings, it was enough to make the postseason. Rico Dowdle has moved to Pittsburgh, but the team is reportedly very excited about third-year runner Jonathon Brooks, who was the first running back drafted in 2024. Now healthy after a re-tear of an ACL, he's seemingly ready to be the 1B to Chuba Hubbard.
WR2 Jalen Coker missed the start of the 2025 season with an injury. A quick scan of McMillan's weekly targets shows a shift once Coker started consistently getting 70%+ of the snaps. From Week 12 through Carolina's postseason loss, Coker earned 40 targets. McMillan's number was identical.
Coker, one of my favorite sleepers, is essentially free in drafts, coming off the board, on average, in the 12th round. McMillan, on the other hand, is a mid-third-round pick. It's not to say another 1,000+ yard season isn't in the cards for McMillan. But he was only the WR24 in PPR points per game last year. Another similar stat line, or even slightly improved, and he's a mid-to-low-end WR2.
Verdict: BUST
Garrett Wilson, New York Jets
Garrett Wilson is currently the president of the aforementioned "talented wide receiver, but no quarterback" club. If he is on any but two or three NFL rosters (you know which ones I'm talking about), he'd be considered a second-round pick in fantasy football at worst.
now you see him🌪️ now you don’t pic.twitter.com/cyCP3p3Pkt
— New York Jets (@nyjets) August 11, 2026
But, alas, he's partnered with Geno Smith and offensive coordinator Frank Reich, who utilizes motion at one of the worst rates in football. Fantasy Points Data analysis shows that skill-position players posted a 43% fantasy points per route run increase on during-snap motion plays.
While Smith projects to be far from the worst quarterback Wilson has been saddled with (the Jets averaged 140 passing yards per game last season), he's still a 35-year-old signal-caller who led the league in interceptions (17) and sacks taken (55) in 15 games for Las Vegas. That's a lot of drive-stalling or drive-ending plays.
Smith boasts a high completion percentage (a hair over 68% since becoming a full-time starter), but it's a result of his tendency to throw close to the line of scrimmage. He averaged 6.2 air yards per attempt, 36th among qualified quarterbacks.
That's baked into Wilson's ADP cost this summer. The upside case is purely volume-based. He's never been outside of WR2 range in target share. Last season, he commanded 34.3% of New York's attempts in seven games during his injury-plagued season.
Volume can get you far in PPR formats. In non-PPR, in this era of shortened fields and touchdown magnitude, there are dozens of reasons to believe that the Jets are a bottom-5 scoring offense once again.
The fantasy football community is buzzing about the target share potential for Zay Flowers in the new-look Baltimore offense. I'd listen to the ADP there and take the receiver on the better offense, just as I would with Tee Higgins, Ladd McConkey, and the next name on this list in non- or half-PPR leagues.
Verdict: NON-PPR BUST
Jaylen Waddle, Denver Broncos
What's more valuable in fantasy football? A high-pedigree wide receiver entering his prime or the top target earner on a pass-happy offense? ¿Por qué no los dos?
Jaylen Waddle arrives in Denver for his age-27 season, averaging over 1,000 yards per season in his career. The yardage totals have slipped a bit in recent seasons as Waddle took a backseat to Tyreek Hill, the once-lethal Miami offense slowed (31st in plays per game in 2025), and Tua Tagovailoa got happy feet in the pocket (6.8 air yards per attempt).
None of those issues will arise in Denver. Bo Nix led the league in pass attempts last season while ranking third in total deep ball attempts (over four per game). The Broncos were seventh in seconds per play.
Waddle posted a top-10 separation score on go routes, according to Fantasy Points Data. The problem was putting the football in a spot where Waddle could secure the attempt.
I'm aware that Nix's yards per attempt (6.4 yards) isn't markedly better than Tagovailoa's. It's due to a heavy dose of screen utilization in the Denver offense.
Let's rewind to Waddle's rookie season, before Hill became the screen merchant of the Miami offense. The former first-round pick was frequently used underneath and on quick throws, resulting in a 6.3-yard aDoT. That was part of his allure when he entered the NFL.
Waddle can weave his way through defenders. TOUCHDOWN Bama. pic.twitter.com/AMfuwMpG1G
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) October 12, 2019
The recurring joke is that you could schedule an X post about Waddle entering the medical tent. It's not as bad as it seems. He's played in 78 of 85 games. As long as this training-camp issue is minor, I'm comfortable taking Waddle toward the beginning of the fourth round.
Verdict: BOOM
Davante Adams, Los Angeles Rams
Davante Adams led the league with 14 receiving touchdowns in 2025, yet showed clear signs of age-related decline.
Let's imagine Adams scored 10 touchdowns (which, in my opinion, is still on the higher side) -- just a smidge over his career average -- last season. He would have slid from WR9 to WR22. Right now, he's being drafted as the WR24. Fantasy managers who select Adams are essentially hoping for another outlandish touchdown-efficient season.
And it's not just the 33-year-old who has to repeat an unlikely campaign. 38-year-old Matthew Stafford tossed 46 scores in 2025, two more than he had in 2023 and 2024 combined. His 7.7% touchdown rate dwarfs his 4.8% career average.
The Rams went all-in for another Super Bowl ring by acquiring reigning Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett and All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie. For the same reasons we knock Cleveland running back Quinshon Judkins, we should knock a secondary piece of the Los Angeles passing game. The defense can win games on its own.
Adams posted his lowest yardage total (789 yards) since his sophomore season, lowest snap share (72.1%) since his rookie year, and caught just 60 of his 114 targets. The higher-upside receivers after Adams in ADP -- Jameson Williams, Rome Odunze, and the next name on this list -- are preferred draft targets.
Verdict: BUST
Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers
Steady, but unspectacular, Romeo Doubs? Christian Watson, coming off a major injury? First-round rookie Matthew Golden? Efficient slot receiver Jayden Reed? None of the above, aka Tucker Kraft?
Determining who the Green Bay receiver to draft last summer was like finding a grain of rice in a bowl of spaghetti. The picture is a little clearer this season.
Doubs is now a Patriot after earning a nice little payday in free agency. Dontayvion Wicks is in Philadelphia. The crowded wide receiver room has been narrowed down to Watson, Reed, and Golden.
Watson is the most expensive in drafts this year, but for good reason. Similar to McMillan, he has outstanding advanced and basic stats. Here's where he ranks among every pass-catcher with at least 50 targets from Week 8 (when Watson made his season debut) through Week 17.
| Christian Watson | Stat (Rank) |
| Yards Per Route Run | 2.67 (5th) |
| Targets Per Route Run | 0.24 (22nd) |
| Fantasy Points Per Route Run | 0.58 (4th) |
| Deep Targets | 19 (2nd) |
| Yards Per Target | 11.11 (3rd) |
| Yards Per Reception | 17.46 (3rd) |
| Touchdowns | 6 (5th) |
Most of that, albeit, was without Kraft, which is a concern. Green Bay's tight end averaged 5.5 targets per game. Even though the Packers have vacated 167 targets, Kraft is expected to play a big part in eating those targets. However, the same could be said for Watson.
Josh Jacobs struggled down the stretch last season. Much of that can be blamed on injury, but Green Bay’s offensive line isn’t what it once was. Tackle Zach Bako-Bewele (formerly Zach Tom) is the only projected starter with a PFF run-block grade above 66. An inefficient run game again could lead to more dropbacks for Jordan Love.
With increased target volume almost a certainty, a bet on Watson is essentially a bet on health. He's yet to play a full season through four years. But I'm willing to make that bet in the sixth round.
Verdict: BOOM
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