RADIO
Mike Marteny's bold predictions for the 2026 college football season, including picks for Oklahoma State, Auburn, Penn State, Alabama, and the Heisman Trophy.
College football is almost here! We've waited through eight long months of baseball (even though it was my first love), flopping, more flopping, the NCAA Tournament, the WNBA season, two months of NBA playoffs, and epic flopping in the World Cup. It's refreshing to get back to the best sport of all.
I do make some bold(ish) predictions from time to time in my betting articles, but let's try this over a full season. My picks last year that hit were Indiana being last year's Indiana (it was even better than I predicted) and the SEC putting five teams in the CFP. Georgia Tech just missed 10 wins (it won nine). Wisconsin would have fired Luke Fickell if it could afford it.
I also said that Baylor would win the Big 12, Garrett Nussmeier would win the Heisman, and UTEP would win a bowl game (it won two games). Take this with a grain of salt. Heading into 2026, here are 10 bold but somewhat realistic predictions for the college football season. I'm not drinking Rhule Aid this year, and I'm not high on LSU's quarterback. What could go wrong?
No. 10: This Year's Indiana Is Penn State
Ok, so maybe this is more like 2024 Indiana than 2025 Indiana. The point is that Penn State is going to rise like a phoenix from James Franklin's ashes.
Few coaches did more with less than Matt Campbell at Iowa State. He is the winningest coach in Cyclones history, leading Iowa State to its first top-10 finish (9) in 2020 and to its first 10-win season in 2024.
Campbell packed up the entire Iowa State offense from last year in his luggage and took it to State College. Add that to a Penn State defense and a schedule that would make 2024 Indiana blush, and you have instant success.
Will Penn State go OVER or UNDER their 8.5 win total in year one of the Campbell era? 🦁 pic.twitter.com/dPe75NAuy2
— CFB Tracker (@MatchupTracker) July 20, 2026
Penn State doesn't play a team that had a winning record until October (the opening of Northwestern's new Ryan Field). It also doesn't play Ohio State, Oregon, or Indiana. How are schedules like this still legal in a "power" conference?
No. 9: UTSA Wins The American Conference, But Misses The College Football Playoff
I know. I said UTSA would win the American last year. I may have been a year early. No one expected North Texas to go off, and the UTSA defense left a lot to be desired. Why is this year different? Check out this stat.
Do you know who didn't transfer? UTSA quarterback Owen McCown. McCown threw for 2,995 yards and 30 touchdowns last year. RB Will Henderson III (866 yards in 2025) and WRs AJ Wilson (528 yards) and David Amador II (443 yards) also return.
As with last year, the defense is a bit of a question mark. UTSA rebuilt with JuCo transfers and some FCS players. It may be enough in a severely weakened American Conference. The only real threat is Tulane.
I also said last year that UTSA would make the CFP. That's not happening this year. What would have been unthinkable last year will happen this year. The AAC champion will not make the CFP.
No. 8: North Dakota State Goes To The CFP In Year 1 Of FBS
There have been many soft landings among FCS schools moving up to FBS in the last few years. James Madison is 40-11 in four seasons in FBS. Jacksonville State is 27-14 in three seasons and beat Florida State in 2021 before moving up.
Kennesaw State won 10 games in Year 2 of FBS after going 2-10 in the first year. Both Missouri State and Delaware moved up and went to a bowl game last year. The bottom line is that teams moving up recently have belonged except for Sam Houston State.
North Dakota State has dominated FCS for most of the last 15 years. The Bison made the FCS playoffs every year since 2011, winning 10 national championships under four different coaches.
Nothing is going to change. The only thing that changed is that the NCAA got rid of the rule making teams moving up to FBS ineligible for the postseason. That means the Bisons' streak of 15 straight playoff appearances can be, and will likely be, extended.
NDSU's toughest game may be against Jacksonville State in the opener. It does make a trip to Colorado Springs in September and Sin City in mid-October. The rest of the schedule is littered with 2025 teams that underachieved, or that lost all of their good players.
No. 7: Auburn Will Have A Top-10 Offense
Auburn finished 78th out of 136 FBS teams in total offense last year. When you have an offensive coach like Hugh Freeze, that's not going to fly. Predictably, he was one of the casualties of the 2025 coaching extermination.
Auburn brought in one of the shiny new offensive coaches to take his place. Like Freeze, Alex Golesh brings much of his high-powered offense with him from South Florida.
The Bulls were third in FBS in offense, averaging 488.7 yards per game. Only North Texas and Mississippi were better. Talented senior quarterback Byrum Brown passed on the NFL to have one more year with the coach who believed in him.
It's not just Brown. His entire receiving corps of Jeremiah Koger, Keshaun Singleton, and Chas Nimrod all followed. Incumbent Auburn RB Jeremiah Cobb is the only holdover, and he was one of the best backs in the SEC last year.
Of all the new SEC WR’s that come out of the portal I believe Jeremiah Koger could be a big name by the end of the season.
597 receiving yards, 8 TDs, 15.7 YPC last season at USF as a true FR in 7 games.
His QB Byrum Brown & HC also come to Auburn. pic.twitter.com/BAzh4rJ9eC
— Garrett Armbrust (@4thandsaturday) July 14, 2026
I've noticed other hot takes that have Auburn making the CFP and Brown winning the Heisman. I'm not going to go that far. Brown isn't going to run 175 times like he did last year. Not with Cobb in the lineup.
Brown's numbers will be worse, but the offense will still cook in the SEC. South Florida beat Florida in The Swamp last year. Brown led the team in passing and rushing while not turning the ball over.
It took 461.4 yards of offense to place in the top 10 of FBS last year. That seems doable with this offense. More good news is that Auburn dodges the Oklahoma and Texas defenses this year.
No. 6: Texas State Wins The Pac-12
It's already a foregone conclusion that Boise State is going to rule the new-look Pac-12. Every media outlet says so, and I get it. Returning QB Maddux Madsen and the backfield of Sire Gaines and Dylan Riley is a big deal.
The only thing is that Texas State had a MUCH better offense than Boise State last year. The Bobcats finished fifth in FBS with 472.1 yards per game. If it weren't for Drew Mestemaker's incredible true freshman season, Texas State's Brad Jackson would have been the talk of Texas.
Jackson threw for 3,224 yards and ran for 744 more. He accounted for 38 total touchdowns and only threw seven interceptions. WRs Beau Sparks (1,200 yards), Chris Dawn Jr. (1,007 yards), and Kylen Evans (211 yards) all return from last year.
Texas State could have one of the most potent offenses in CFB.
They returns from last season:
QB1 Brad Jackson 3,224 passing yards & 21 TDs
WR1/WR2 Beau Sparks & Chris Dawn Jr both 1,000 yard WRs + 14 TDs
RB1 Greg Burrell 671 rushing yards & 6.7 YPC pic.twitter.com/yL93Lf4Ynb
— Garrett Armbrust (@4thandsaturday) July 16, 2026
The Texas State offense is going to be elite again. It does play Boise State on the Smurf Turf, but we saw what South Florida's offense did to Boise State last year. This Texas State offense reminds me a lot of 2025 South Florida. If the Bobcats can win that game, conference glory is theirs in Year 1.
No. 5: The SEC Only Gets Four Teams Into The College Football Playoff
There has been a committee around for over 10 years now. One thing that has remained constant is overcorrection. The story is that Alabama was snubbed in 2024. People lost their minds. Last year, Alabama got in despite a loss in the SEC Championship Game. It should have been Notre Dame's spot.
I don't agree with how Notre Dame handled it, but this was not the players' decision, nor was it Marcus Freeman's. Blame the university. They are the grinches who took the postseason away in South Bend.
Speaking of overcorrections, Notre Dame's sweetheart backroom CFP deal is real, and it will be a total shock if it is ever left out again. Overcorrection helps no one.
So, if we have a guaranteed spot for Notre Dame and five more for conference champions, that leaves six at-large bids. The SEC isn't going to get four of them after the conference's showing in the CFP last year and the bowl games overall.
The committee is full of people who are desperate to be taken seriously. They felt the backlash in 2024 and again last year. We'll be back to four SEC teams this year ... and Alabama will not be one of them.
No. 4: The Big Ten Gets Five Teams Into The College Football Playoff
The Big Ten has three straight champions in football. It shows that some schools in the Big Ten have a lot of money to throw at players. With instant transfers, there is never a lack of talent in the portal. Some teams have taken advantage more than others.
We've already discussed Penn State's ridiculously easy schedule. Ohio State and Oregon both look at least as good as last year. Indiana won't be quite as good, but should still win 10 regular-season games with that schedule.
Who's the fifth team? There has been a sizable gap between the top and the middle of the Big Ten for many years now. The addition of Washington and Oregon made that worse, not better. USC has to play at Indiana and at Penn State, and it gets Oregon and Ohio State at home. It needs to win at least two of those. With that defense, it's not going to happen.
Michigan gets Penn State and Indiana at home, but in back-to-back weeks. It also plays at Oregon and Ohio State. That's not counting a game against Oklahoma in September.
We need to find other weak Big Ten schedules. There are two candidates. Minnesota doesn't play Ohio State or Oregon and gets Michigan at home. Trips to Indiana and Penn State will be tough, but this could be a 10-win team if the defense holds up.
Iowa's offense is bad, but it may not matter. The defense is still among the best in FBS, and this schedule is worse than Penn State's. Iowa plays at Michigan and gets Ohio State at home. The flipside is that Iowa gets to close the season with four teams in the last five weeks that were under .500 in conference last year.
Only Northwestern and Nebraska had winning records overall. Iowa has four straight wins over Northwestern, and has beaten Nebraska 10 of the last 11 seasons. A painfully average Iowa team has the schedule to make a run. Get ready for the 10-win Big Ten team pump-up. It worked in 2024.
No. 3: Two Running Backs Are Heisman Trophy Finalists
Only two running backs have been Heisman finalists since Alabama's Derrick Henry won the award in 2015 (Bryce Love of Stanford in 2017 and Ashton Jeanty of Boise State in 2024). Why would running backs suddenly get more respect this year?
The truth is that they probably won't. All of the preseason Heisman talk is around Arch Manning, Julian Sayin, and Trinidad Chambliss. Darian Mensah, CJ Carr, and Sam Leavitt are also being mentioned. Once again, all of them are quarterbacks.
This could be the year of the running back. Four of the five top rushers in FBS last year are returning in 2026. Cam Cook and Caleb Hawkins both transferred to Power Four schools. Most importantly, all four of them have workhorse status. Cook carried 295 times. Ahmad Hardy had 256 carries. Kewan Lacy had 306. Hawkins had 231.
Hardy wasn't used much in the passing game, so I ultimately think he fades. Cook didn't score a receiving touchdown. Neither did Lacy, but he scored 23 rushing touchdowns. Hawkins was the best of both worlds, racking up 1,804 total yards and 29 total touchdowns.
All it would take is a couple of underachieving seasons from the top quarterbacks and another monster season for Hawkins and Lacy. Hey, it could happen!
No. 2: Alabama Loses Four Games In A Row For The First Time Since 2007
Alabama still hasn't officially announced a successor for Ty Simpson, but I'll be surprised if it's not Keelon Russell. Still, Alabama hasn't been Alabama under Kalen DeBoer. It lost four games in a season for the first time since Nick Saban's first year last year.
We're going back to 2007 again for another bold prediction. Alabama isn't a bad team, but it doesn't have the swagger or the players that it had under Saban. The changing college football landscape has a lot to do with that.
Is Alabama just a victim of new circumstances, or is DeBoer just not the man for the job? The Tide will test that in a stretch from mid-October to mid-November this year.
Alabama gets Georgia at home on October 10, travels to Knoxville the next weekend, hosts the Aggies on October 24, then gets a bye before heading to Red Stick on November 7.
If Alabama isn't in top shape, it may lose all four of those games. Georgia hasn't won in Tuscaloosa since 2007, but Georgia looks more put together than Alabama right now.
Alabama hasn't won in Knoxville since 2020. It hasn't won in a full Neyland Stadium since 2018. The last (and only) time that the Aggies won in Tuscaloosa was with Johnny Manziel in 2012.
A lot of things would have to go wrong for this to happen, but if Ryan Coleman-Williams can't get back to his 2024 form and Russell isn't Simpson, this isn't as far-fetched as you may think.
No. 1: Oklahoma State Upsets Oregon In Week 2
The Cowboys won just one game last year in their worst season since going winless in 1991. Mike Gundy was fired and replaced with Eric Morris, who brought the entire North Texas offense with him.
Drew Mestemaker led FBS in passing yards last year and was the only 4,000-yard passer. He finished with 4,379. RB Caleb Hawkins accounted for 1,803 total yards and 29 touchdowns. WR Wyatt Young had 1,264 yards and 10 touchdowns. Morris added former Ball State standout Justin Bowick to the WR room.
Dropped in the bucket!
Mesty to Young! pic.twitter.com/4ho32MXJFB— Freedom Cowboy (@FreedomCowboy19) April 18, 2026
Cowboys fans are hungry for something to cheer about. Boone Pickens Stadium is going to be rocking, and the holdovers have to be fired up after what Oregon did to the Pokes in Eugene last year (69-3 was the final).
Oregon has a long history of close calls in September. Last year, it was Northwestern. In 2024, Boise State almost beat it. 2023 was a near-miss against Texas Tech. In 2022, it was obliterated by Georgia and nearly lost to Washington State. 2021 was a close call against Fresno in the opener. This could be the year that it happens.
