Fantasy Baseball Buy-Lows: Unlucky Star Players

May 13, 2026

Joey's fantasy baseball buy-lows, breakouts, trade candidates to target for Week 7 in 2026. These unlucky players are underperforming early for fantasy baseball.

The fantasy baseball season is now in full swing. At this point in the year, there's a clear picture of which players are off to great starts and which players are not. The players who continue to struggle give fantasy managers a potential buy-low window. That makes now the best time to look at some of the best buy-low fantasy players.

This article will highlight the seven best buy-low fantasy players. This list will feature four hitters and three pitchers. The four hitters are all currently underperforming at the plate and were all early-round picks in fantasy drafts this spring. The three pitchers haven't posted solid fantasy numbers this year, but better days are surely ahead for all of them.

So, who are the early-season fantasy baseball buy-lows? Let's take a look.

Fernando Tatis Jr., 2B/OF, San Diego Padres

It has been a weird start to the season for San Diego Padres outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. He is slashing just .243/.319/.292 in 39 games and has zero home runs across 167 plate appearances. The lack of home runs for Tatis at this point in the season is definitely a major surprise, considering he had 11 homers by May 13 last year. This 39-game homerless skid is the longest of his career.

However, Tatis has been extremely unlucky at the plate in the early going. He's still barreling the ball at an elite clip (12%), and his expected batting average (.272), average exit velocity (92.7 mph), hard-hit rate (58.3%), and bat speed (74.9 mph) all rank in the top 25% of the league. There are very few hitters who have hit the ball as hard as the Padres outfielder has to begin the year.

Fernando Tatis Jr. JUST misses his first home run of the season

395 ft, 105.8mph
What else can he do? #Padres #ForTheFaithful pic.twitter.com/natCsqA1NU

— Carlos (@LFGPads19) May 10, 2026

That all makes the three-time All-Star a massive buy-low in all formats right now. The home runs will eventually come, and they could come in bunches. While his Pull AIR rate is down significantly from last year (5.6%), both his hard-hit rate and barrel rate are up from a season ago. So, acquire him before the homers come. Tatis is still one of the best fantasy players to own.

Ketel Marte, 2B, Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte is really struggling at the plate right now. He is batting just .156 with one home run, five RBI, and 10 strikeouts over his last 12 games, and his early-season numbers are really poor. Marte is slashing only .213/.267/.373 with five home runs, 15 RBI, and a .640 OPS across 38 games this year.

But like Tatis, Marte has been one of the unluckiest hitters in baseball to begin the season. His expected batting average (.291) is 78 points higher than his actual batting average (.213), and the veteran still ranks in the 70th percentile or better in xwOBA (.350), expected slugging (.465), average exit velocity (91.2 mph), and hard-hit rate (46.7%). Those are all encouraging signs that better days are ahead for him.

Marte's track record also suggests that he's a fantastic buy-low candidate. He hit .276 with 25 home runs and 82 RBI in 2023, had a .292 batting average with 36 home runs and 95 RBI in 2024, and batted .283 with 28 home runs and 72 RBI last year. With the 32-year-old still pulling the ball in the air at an elite rate (24.2%), he's worth trading for right now. Some positive regression is coming his way.

Bo Bichette, 3B/SS, New York Mets

After a bounce-back campaign with the Toronto Blue Jays in 2025, the New York Mets threw $126 million at infielder Bo Bichette this past offseason. But his slow start is not what the Mets envisioned when they signed him to a three-year deal. The two-time All-Star is batting a mere .222 at the plate with two home runs, five doubles, 16 RBI, and one stolen base in his first 40 games on his new team.

The good news, though, is that some positive regression should be heading Bichette's way within the next few weeks. His expected batting average (.283) is 61 points better than his actual batting average (.222), and his average exit velocity (91 mph), hard-hit rate (45.5%), squared-up rate (28.5%), and strikeout rate (17.1%) are all similar to his 2025 metrics.

Bo Bichette snaps an 0-for-15 stretch with a base hit pic.twitter.com/YV7DMaO3b6

— SNY (@SNYtv) May 13, 2026

That's enough reason to buy Bichette in leagues. He won't cost as much as the other players on this list, but he still has the potential to be a solid all-around option for fantasy managers. The 28-year-old batted .311 with 18 home runs, 78 runs scored, 94 RBI, and four stolen bases across 139 games last season.

We have seen players struggle in new places before and then get going once they settle in. That could be the case with Bichette, whose metrics point to better fantasy production in the future.

Freddie Freeman, 1B, Los Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman has posted fine numbers to begin his 17th Major League season. Freeman is batting .273 with four home runs, 11 doubles, and 20 RBI in his first 39 games. However, fantasy managers are likely frustrated by the veteran's recent production at the plate, as he is batting only .238 with one home run over his last 16 games.

Despite that recent offensive stretch, Freeman is one of the better buy-low targets right now. Most of his metrics are up from last year, and there are reasons to be optimistic that his numbers will gradually improve. The Dodgers first baseman has a .380 xwOBA, a .292 expected batting average, a .534 in expected slugging, a 92 mph average exit velocity, and a 32.9% squared-up rate.

Considering all five of those metrics currently rank in the 85th percentile or better, Freeman is the perfect trade target. He should finish with a batting average around .290 with 20+ home runs, 85+ RBI, and 80+ runs scored. It might not be easy to trade for the former National League MVP, but he has the chance to really take off offensively very soon.

Garrett Crochet, SP, Boston Red Sox

Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Garrett Crochet has been one of the bigger fantasy busts in the early going. He allowed 11 runs (10 earned runs) in a start against the Twins back on April 13 and owns a 6.30 ERA across 30 innings pitched this season. Crochet is also currently on the 15-day injured list due to a shoulder injury.

Although things haven't been great for the southpaw throughout the 2026 campaign, he is such a great buy-low right now. He's still striking out batters at an elite clip (26.8%) and looked solid on the mound in his last start before landing on the IL. Crochet threw six shutout innings with seven strikeouts against the Orioles in his last time out on April 25.

It might not look like it, but there are plenty of positives for Crochet at this point in the season. If you remove his one poor outing against the Twins, he has a 3.49 ERA and a 30.8% strikeout rate in his five other outings. Additionally, the left-hander has a 3.65 expected FIP, which means some positive regression is coming his way once he comes off the injured list. That's why the Red Sox pitcher is such a fantastic buy-low candidate.

Jesus Luzardo, SP, Philadelphia Phillies

If you showed any fantasy manager Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Jesus Luzardo's Baseball Savant page, you would think he would be dominating on the mound. Luzardo ranks in the 90th percentile in average exit velocity (85.9 mph), 94th percentile in chase rate (37.2%), 94th percentile in whiff rate (33.8%), 91st percentile in strikeout rate (30%), 82nd percentile in walk rate (6.3%), and 90th percentile in hard-hit rate (29.4%).

Unfortunately, Luzardo has not been dominant on the mound despite these impressive metrics. The southpaw has a 5.98 ERA and a 1.397 WHIP in eight starts and allowed six runs on six hits across three innings against the Colorado Rockies at home in his most recent start on Friday. That marked his third outing this year in which he gave up at least five earned runs in a start.

Jesús Luzardo, 99mph ⛽️ pic.twitter.com/mKERrndJVD

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 28, 2026

However, Luzardo is the best pitcher to target in all trade talks. He has arguably been the unluckiest pitcher in baseball, with an expected ERA (3.21) sitting 277 points lower than his actual ERA (5.98). That's the number one indicator that his overall numbers should improve within the next few weeks.

Logan Webb, SP, San Francisco Giants

San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Logan Webb has been one of the most consistent starters in the league in recent seasons. He made at least 32 starts in each of his last four years and had a combined 3.22 ERA from 2022 to 2025. Last season, Webb finished with a 3.22 ERA and 224 strikeouts across 207 innings pitched.

In 2026, though, Webb has not been that same pitcher. He currently has a 5.06 ERA and 42 strikeouts across eight starts and recently went on the 15-day injured list due to a right knee issue. This gives fantasy managers a prime opportunity to trade for the Giants right-hander at a low cost. His fantasy value will never be lower all season.

Webb's prior track record makes him a valid buy-low candidate. Opposing hitters are chasing his pitches outside the zone at a high rate (34.9%), and the 29-year-old shouldn't miss too much time with his knee injury. So, see what it would take to acquire him. There's a good chance that it won't cost too much.

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