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Ian McNeill ranks his top-10 PGA Tour players to watch for at the 2026 WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale. He gives data-backed insights into who is primed for success.
After Justin Rose made the first major statement of golf's New Year, the Tour shifts quickly to one of its most recognizable stages. "The Greatest Show on Grass" is here for its 2026 rendition, and with it come a host of headliners looking to crank up the decibel level with their names.
Alongside World No. 1 and two-time Champion Scottie Scheffler, six past champions and nine others within the world's top 20 will make the trip to Scottsdale, as will several desert golf specialists itching to play spoiler.
But how does this elite field stack up at the top? Who, if anyone, should you be targeting on pre-week betting boards? Without further ado, here are my top-10 players to watch at this week's 2026 WM Phoenix Open!
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No. 10 - Matt Fitzpatrick
Matt Fitzpatrick makes it a hattrick of DP World Tour Championship titles! The Englishman defeats his fellow Ryder Cup teammate, Rory McIlroy, to clinch the final event of the 2025 DP World Tour season🏆 pic.twitter.com/VLnAY5guUO
— Golf Monthly (@GolfMonthly) November 16, 2025
I noted two weeks ago how quietly strong the underlying numbers were for Fitzpatrick heading into 2026, and while PGA West was always a less-than-ideal fit, TPC Scottsdale aligns far more naturally with his strengths.
Length is the first separator. Stretching beyond 7,200 yards with eight par fours over 440 yards, Scottsdale places far more emphasis on driving than the wedge-heavy setup in Palm Springs. Over his last 50 rounds, Fitzpatrick ranks inside the top 30 in both Driving Distance and Good Drive Percentage, and that profile has translated here before — gaining strokes off the tee in all four of his career appearances, including a season-best +4.0 in 2024.
The longer approach demands should also work in his favor. With roughly 65% of approaches coming from beyond 150 yards, this setup suits Fitzpatrick far better than the short-iron test he faced at PGA West. His best iron performance of last season came at 7,500-yard Quail Hollow at the PGA Championship (+6.1 SG: Approach), and his strongest non-PGA Tour starts over the past year have similarly come on long, demanding venues like Wentworth and Jumeirah Golf Estates.
The short game remains a constant — top 10 in putting and top 20 around the greens over his last 50 rounds — and finishes of 10th and 15th here since 2022 suggest a baseline level of comfort. With eight top-10s and a win over the last nine months, Fitzpatrick’s form is trending in the right direction, and Scottsdale feels like the beginning of a stretch where his profile becomes increasingly relevant.
No. 9 - Viktor Hovland
In direct opposition to the two names below, Hovland has oddly found little success around TPC Scottsdale -- despite the stats painting him as a dream fit for this ball-striker's paradise.
In three starts here in the desert, Hovland has finished no better than 42nd whilst adding in two missed cuts. While his patented long game hasn't been quite as prolific as we'd expect in those three appearances, Hovland did record a top 10 ball-striking rating here three years ago -- gaining +5.2 strokes between his driving and iron play.
In the aggregate, however, the numbers suggest Hovland's struggles around this venue are destined to be short-lived. Over the last 12 months, no one on the planet has been able to match his combination of Strokes Gained (99th percentile) and Proximity to the Hole (98th percentile) from 150-200 yards -- a range that accounts for over 40% of historical approaches around Scottsdale.
Hovland's also long been known as one of the game's premier drivers of the ball: ranking inside the top 30 in this field in both Driving Distance and Good Drive Percentage. And he's also shown an affinity for similarly over-seeded green complexes -- most recently logging the best putting performance of his career at last year's Valspar Championship at Innisbrook (+7.4).
It's difficult to choose a concrete reason why Hovland has repeatedly found struggles around this venue, but his recent form sheet heading into this week should give his backers hope. Since coming in 12th at the Tour Championship last August, Hovland logged finishes of 5th, 6th, 23rd, and 14th on the DP World Tour between September and January -- notably ranking third in his last start in Dubai from Tee-to-Green (+9.68). I'm willing to continue buying his immense talent -- particularly if the market overreacts to the underwhelming set of results here between 2020-2023.
No. 8 - Sam Burns
A T27 at the American Express was hardly the start many expected from Burns, but the Louisiana native gets a prime opportunity to reset this week at one of his most reliable venues on the schedule.
Since 2023, Burns has posted finishes of third and sixth at TPC Scottsdale, highlighted by a massive 9.6 strokes gained between driving and approach here two years ago -- one of the strongest ball-striking performances of his career. His comfort in the desert fits a broader pattern as well, with Burns consistently thriving on over-seeded green complexes like those found at Innisbrook, TPC Sawgrass, and Quail Hollow, where he led the field with +7.16 Strokes Gained: Putting.
While Burns’ reputation has long been built on elite putting, the last six months have quietly featured meaningful progress from tee to green. He ranks inside the top 30 in both Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and Approach, sits 15th in Birdie Chances Created, and checks in above field average in each of the key proximity buckets this week (100–150 and 150–200 yards).
When that improved ball-striking is paired with a putter that has repeatedly produced spike weeks on similar surfaces, the ceiling becomes obvious. Burns has gained over six strokes on the greens of TPC Scottsdale, Innisbrook, and Harbour Town on multiple occasions -- including a career-best +10.9 putting performance five years ago at this very event.
If the long game continues to trend in the right direction, Burns’ proven comfort at TPC Scottsdale gives him a clear path to outperform his number, and potentially snap a winless drought that’s nearing three years.
No. 7 - Jordan Spieth
🚨⛳️🔥 Jordan Spieth is bogey free thru his last 45 holes in Phoenix… T2.
— NUCLR GOLF (@NUCLRGOLF) February 8, 2025
There aren't many consistently fruitful venues left for Spieth as he's tumbled down to 82nd in the World Golf Rankings, but if two courses existed that could drastically improve his New Year's outlook, they'd undoubtedly be this week at TPC Scottsdale, and next at Pebble Beach.
Here in the desert, Spieth has repeatedly shown his irons can carry him to contention. Since 2015, he’s gained six or more strokes on approach in five of nine starts, translating into finishes of 7th, 9th, 4th, 6th, and 4th. In 2024, he added one of the best short-game performances of his career, gaining 9.6 strokes on and around the greens en route to another sixth-place finish. Over 32 rounds at Scottsdale, he’s gained more strokes per round with his irons than anyone -- including Scheffler, and only four players have posted a better scoring average.
Admittedly, the long-term stats don't exactly point to TPC Scottsdale as a dream course fit for Jordan on paper. Over the last 12 months, he ranks outside the top 50 in Total Driving, Mid-Iron Proximity, and Birdie Chances Created. But with a sample size that spans over a decade now, it's difficult to project Spieth to do anything but exceed those baselines once again.
No. 6 - Xander Schauffele
Coming into the week, Xander Schauffele had the longest active streak of 72 consecutive made cuts. His last missed cut prior to this week was the 2022 Masters (1,393 days ago). He said, "In terms of pulling a tooth, that was kind of it." pic.twitter.com/gMJVaq3EbG
— Chris McKee (@mrmckee) January 31, 2026
Still, context matters. Schauffele was open in recent media availability about stepping away from competitive golf for much of the fall following the birth of his son last August, and it’s fair to wonder how much runway he’ll need before returning to peak form. Until the signs suggest that the competitive rust has fully lifted, I'll remain wary of his outright prospects.
No. 5 - Ben Griffin
It's admittedly difficult to pinpoint precise course fits for Griffin given the rapid ascent he's made over the last 8-10 months. But in that time, he's shown more than enough to earn a permanent spot in these rankings, regardless of the field.
In fact, over his last 50 rounds, Ben ranks inside the top 20 in this field in each of the four strokes gained metrics -- a feat that only Scheffler can replicate. He's one of few in the game to possess the ball-striking upside to pick a course apart with fairways and greens, along with the short game savvy to keep his round afloat when the long game wavers.
His two previous starts at the WM Phoenix Open underscore this versatility. In 2025, he finished 36th, gaining 4.0 strokes with his ball-striking, and in 2024, he finished 28th while adding 4.9 strokes on and around the greens.
While that course history isn't likely to blow you away, Griffin's run of form since 2025's rendition is as impressive as can be found. Across 16 starts on Tour since last May's PGA Championship, the former UNC Tar Heel has finished outside the top 25 just twice: logging two wins and six top 10s in that time.
With a field loaded with big names and perennial top-10 players, Griffin isn’t likely to grab many headlines. But make no mistake, his status as the 8th best golfer on the planet wasn't attained by accident. With two individual titles already to his name over his last 15 starts, you can be sure that anyone paying attention won't hesitate if his share price dips too far down this board.
No. 4 - Cameron Young
There weren’t a lot of positives coming from the top of last week’s Farmers Insurance Open leaderboard, but Young’s 22nd-place finish was a clear step forward for the 28-year-old in the opening start of his 2026 season. The fourth-year pro gained over five strokes to the field between his driving and iron play across three rounds at the South Course -- a performance reminiscent of his prolific ball-striking at the 2022 Farmers. That start preceded a breakout season for Young, which included a runner-up at Riviera just three weeks later and five other top-three finishes over the next six months, including two in Major Championships.
This week, Young will look to carry that form to a venue that has treated him well: the WM Phoenix Open. Over his last two appearances, the Wake Forest product finished 8th and 12th, highlighting his game's two biggest long-term strengths in the process. Across four career starts, Young has gained an average of 3.65 strokes off the tee and paired it with two of his best career putting performances (+7.4 and +5.2).
From Rickie Fowler to Brooks Koepka to Scheffler, TPC Scottsdale has repeatedly proven to be a launching pad for the game’s rising stars. Young is very much on that trajectory, and if he can maintain the momentum he’s shown to start 2026, a breakout win feels increasingly within reach.
No. 3 - Hideki Matsuyama
The weeks tick by doing these Sunday evening power rankings, and again I find myself higher than expected on Matsuyama's prospects. He's done nothing but continue his torrid run of play from last fall, posting finishes of T13 and T11 at the Farmers and Sony Open's respectively, while reminding us why he is continually regarded as one of the game's premier iron players.
Across three rounds on the South Course, Matsuyama gained 4.42 strokes on approach (10th in the field), adding to the +4.72 rating he posted on Oahu. His outlook only improves heading to the WM Open, as over the last two years, he ranks third on Tour in SG: Approach and third in Proximity to the Hole from 150–200 yards -- the very range that accounts for 40% of historical approach shots around TPC Scottsdale. Unsurprisingly, Matsuyama has gained five or more strokes to the field with his iron play in seven of his 11 Scottsdale appearances.
His driver should also be more of an asset as he gains more room to operate this week (31-yard-wide fairways and a well-below-average rough penalty. For the second straight event, Matsuyama will step onto green complexes that have historically suited his eye, having gained strokes to the field in three of his last four appearances.
It's been nearly six months (and seven starts) since Hideki has finished worse than 20th in a full-field event. Returning to the site of two of his 10 career PGA Tour victories, armed with a ball-striking profile tailor-made for Scottsdale's demands, Matsuyama is once again positioned to contend. If the odds continue to understate him, Hideki could quietly emerge as the sharpest play of the week.
No. 2 - Si Woo Kim
There are certainly names with more cache in the WM Phoenix Open field, but among this mix of Major Champions, budding stars, and headline acts, the argument can be made that nobody is playing as well as Kim.
With his runner-up finish to Rose last week at Torrey Pines, the Korean star has strung together ten straight finishes of 21st or better -- a run that includes three top-five finishes in Wentworth, Melbourne, and Sea Island last fall, followed by a T11, T6, and T2 to begin his 2026 campaign.
What stands out most isn’t just the consistency of those finishes, but the way Kim has produced them across drastically different venues. From Waiʻalae to PGA West to Torrey Pines (courses measuring roughly 7,200, 7,000, and 7,600 yards, respectively), his ball-striking profile has remained evergreen at the top of the field.
He gained a staggering 10.72 strokes between his driving and iron play over four days at Waiʻalae -- two shots better than the second-best player in the field, Corey Conners. He ranked fourth in ball-striking at the American Express, gaining 5.2 strokes across two rounds at the Stadium Course. And last week, on a layout that has historically overwhelmed shorter hitters, Kim led the entire field in SG: Approach at +7.33.
These sort of ball-striking splits are typically reserved for those in the very top tier of the sport. Yet, between his understated profile and a somewhat uneven history at TPC Scottsdale, it's plausible he won't receive full respect on odds boards. Given his current form -- and one of the most reliable driving and middle-iron baselines in my modeling -- he profiles as the clearest blue-chip option in this field outside of Scheffler. Regardless of where his number opens Monday morning, I’ll be treating him accordingly.
No. 1 - Scottie Scheffler
Scottie Scheffler's 1st win on the PGA Tour comes at WM Phoenix Open | February 13, 2022 | TPC Scottsdale pic.twitter.com/X2ww0fs5wd
— Milestone Highlights (@milestonehls) February 13, 2025
We’re already one-for-one in Scheffler’s 2026 campaign, and in his second start of the season, he returns to what is arguably his most comfortable course fit on the entire PGA Tour schedule.
Scheffler has enjoyed repeated success at no shortage of elite venues over his four-year reign at the top of the game, but few places can match the sustained dominance he’s shown at TPC Scottsdale. Over his last five appearances here, the Texan has posted two victories, a third, and a seventh -- a run that’s far from coincidental when you examine the demands of the golf course itself.
TPC Scottsdale features one of the highest middle-iron shares on Tour, with over 40% of approach shots last season coming from 150–200 yards. Pair that with an off-the-tee penalty fraction of 7.8% -- the third-highest on the PGA Tour -- and success this week requires elite precision throughout the bag.
That profile plays directly into the hands of the most complete ball-striker we’ve seen since Tiger Woods. Scheffler ranks first in this field in Total Driving, first in Strokes Gained: Approach, and leads the Tour in both Strokes Gained per Shot and proximity from the critical 150–200 yard range.
As has been the case for several seasons now, the tee-to-green numbers alone would be enough to separate Scheffler from the rest of the field. But at TPC Scottsdale, his putter has quietly been just as lethal. Across his last five starts here, Scheffler has gained an average of +3.66 strokes on the greens -- removing the lone variable that has historically kept hope alive for the rest of the field. I'll be taking extreme caution before deciding to fade Scottie in any market this week, including outrights.
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