Hitter Fantasy Baseball Breakouts - Risers to Watch and Waiver Wire Outlooks (Week 18)

July 27, 2025

Jarod's hitter fantasy baseball breakouts, sleepers, and risers to watch for Week 18 of 2025. His list includes waiver wire outlooks and underachieving hitters so far.

Welcome back to my Fantasy Baseball Breakout Hitters article for Week 18 of the 2025 MLB season. The focus of this article is to highlight players who could be on the verge of a breakout, citing current active hitting streaks along with recent leaders in batting average and isolated power (ISO). You will also find expected batting average (xwOBA) underachievers and overachievers.

In this week's edition, we'll dive into players like Jackson Chourio, Matt Shaw, and Royce Lewis. You'll not only find out who is hot at the plate but also which hitters deserve better results based on their expected stats or who might be on the verge of a cold spell.

Last week, Roman Anthony and Byron Buxton were two notable callouts who continued to hit. So, let's take a closer look at our breakout watch to help your fantasy baseball teams heading into Week 18. You might find a potential waiver wire target or some worthy DFS plays!

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Hit Streak Leaders

Data through 7/23

Jackson Chourio (17 games)

Surely, Jackson Chourio's recent success is a big part of how the Brewers have been able to ascend to the top of the NL Central division. The 21-year-old is hitting .347 (25-for-67) over his last 17 games, with 15 RBI, 15 runs scored, and three steals. It's good for a .397 wOBA and 159 wRC+ over that time.

You won't find him on any waiver wires, but he's going to be a consistently good DFS play.

Victor Caratini (11* games)

You might think of Victor Caratini as a catcher, and he is, but with the way he is hitting, the Astros have found ways to keep his bat in the lineup lately. Not only is he riding an 11-game hit streak, but he's also hit safely in 15 of his last 16 games.

In July alone, the 31-year-old is 22-for-62 (.355) with three doubles, four home runs, 17 RBI, and eight runs scored, all while logging starts at catcher (6x), designated hitter (5x), and first base (4x).

Victor Caratini crushes a GRAND SLAM 💪

(MLB x @DairyQueen) pic.twitter.com/5ykPIdULNA

— MLB (@MLB) July 2, 2025

The veteran backstop is eligible at both C and 1B on Yahoo!, and is still available in over 75 percent of leagues. He's a career .245 hitter, so he'll likely cool at some point, but on the flip side, the switch-hitter is recording the highest contact rate of his career at 82.3 percent, isn't chasing much (77th percentile), and has a low 8.5 percent swinging-strike rate.

Either way, you can use him while he's hot and cut bait when he cools.

(*Update: Caratini went 1-for-4 batting out of the third spot in the order on Thursday, extending his streak to 12 games)

Highest Batting Average Last Seven Days

Data through 7/23, minimum 13 at-bats

Brenton Doyle (.538 BA)

Brenton Doyle was highlighted in the "xwOBA Underachiever" section of this article in Week 14, and in the 19 games since that article, he's gone 19-for-62 (.306), although seven of those hits came in the last three games alone.

There hasn't been a ton of power included in there, with two doubles and two home runs in those 19 games, and there hasn't been much use of his wheels, with just two steals during that span, but he's coming off a 23-homer, 30-steal campaign in 2024, so you know it's in there somewhere.

With an 8.9 percent barrel rate and 40.0 percent hard-hit rate, the power might not come, as it seems he's traded power for contact since the left-handed slugger registered a 12.2 barrel rate and 46.8 hard-hit rate in the 67 games prior to this recent hot stretch, which produced a .194 batting average.

Even if the power doesn't come back, fantasy managers desperate for steals can hope that if he can continue to get on base, then the steals will follow. The 27-year-old is available in half of Yahoo! leagues for managers trying to catch lightning in a bottle.

Kyle Teel (.500 BA)

Kyle Teel was raking at Triple-A before he was called up, hitting .295 and displaying some good pop with 10 doubles and eight home runs in 50 games.

He hit well when he got to the majors as well, batting .319 over his first 19 games with the big league club. He then endured a 0-for-17 stretch over the next seven games. The former first-rounder has shown signs of life, though recently, including hitting safely in four straight games in which he started.

Kyle Teel launches his first big league homer! 😤 pic.twitter.com/YPp9k1pavI

— MLB (@MLB) July 24, 2025

In his latest game, the 23-year-old collected three hits and blasted his first home run in the majors. Don't be surprised if he keeps it up for a while, as a 12.3 percent barrel rate like Teel has would typically result in a few more homers than just the one he has.

Sure his counting stats aren't the kind you might look for in fantasy (eight RBI, 15 runs scored in 28 games), and sure he plays for the White Sox, but the Sox are averaging 7.33 runs per game over their last three games, which is second-most in all of baseball, so the stats may be more fruitful going forward.

The University of Virginia product is available in nearly all leagues for those looking for a hot bat at catcher.

Matt Shaw (.474 BA)

Yes, Matt Shaw was sent down to the minors after his first 18 games this year, but remember that he won the third base job out of spring training, which showed the confidence the Cubs had in their 2023 first-round draft pick.

He did what he needed to do at Triple-A and earned himself another shot in the majors, which has been hot-and-cold, but right now he's hot.

When he was first recalled, he hit .345 over 16 games, but then hit .121 over the next 29 games. Now he's 9-for-19 (.474) over the last six, and it has come with a pair of home runs and two steals as well.

MATT SHAW FOR 3! pic.twitter.com/UGuJi03hQq

— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) July 22, 2025

As with any player, there are ups and downs in a season, and they can be even more extreme for younger players, but right now, Shaw is hot. The 23-year-old is in one of the best offensive environments in baseball, is eligible at 2B, 3B, and SS on Yahoo!, and is just 25 percent rostered.

If he can stay productive for the balance of the season, you could find yourself a multi-category contributor who could help fill multiple lineup holes, making him all the more appealing in leagues with daily lineup changes.

Highest ISO Last Seven Days

Data through 7/23, minimum 13 at-bats

Royce Lewis (.647 ISO)

Since coming off the IL on July 1, Royce Lewis scuffled to a .233 average, but over the last four games, he's collected three multi-hit games, and the power output has finally come around.

A 451-foot solo shot from Royce Lewis 😮 pic.twitter.com/7huFGhBcMx

— MLB (@MLB) July 20, 2025

Three of his five home runs on the year have come in the last four games, and he's added two doubles as well. We know he can hit for power, and he's shown he can sustain it for periods, as long as he stays healthy.

That is a major problem for him, though, so it might be his health and not his bat that cools him off. But if he can manage to stay on the field for the final two months, the former first-overall draft pick has the talent to help carry fantasy teams to the playoffs, and he's available in about half of leagues.

Ryan McMahon (.550 ISO)

Ryan McMahon got hot right before the All-Star break with a three-hit game on July 11, then hit safely in seven of eight, going 10-for-29 (.345) with two doubles and four home runs in those eight games before going 0-for-3 on Wednesday.

The 30-year-old owns a .288 BABIP compared to a .313 career BABIP, suggesting he's been a tad unlucky, leaving his expected batting average (xBA) at .232 compared to his actual BA of .217.

A low 67.5 percent contact rate could mean this good stretch of hitting might not last, but a 12.9 percent barrel rate means he could still hit for sporadic power (.403 SLG vs. .466 xSLG).

There are also teams showing interest as the trade deadline nears*, and while hitting at Coors is a nice boost, hitting in a better lineup could be just as fruitful (i.e., New York Yankees with their 5.20 runs/game vs. Colorado's 3.62 runs/game).

The veteran slugger is just 32 percent rostered and could be worthy of a waiver claim in the event he ends up with a contender for the stretch run.

(*Update: Ryan McMahon has been traded to the Yankees)

Most Steals Last Seven Days

Data through 7/23

Ha-Seong Kim (three SBs)

Ha-Seong Kim missed most of the first half with a shoulder injury, finally returning to the lineup only to be injured two times in the last three weeks. Although he's currently day-to-day with lower back tightness, it doesn't seem like another IL stint is necessary (Update: Kim has been placed on the 10-day IL).

Assuming that holds true, the 29-year-old could return for Friday's matchup with the Reds, and he had stolen a base in three straight games prior to the back issue. He's got the wheels to keep it up, having stolen 22 bases last year in 121 games and 38 the year before in 152 games.

For managers looking for stolen bases on the cheap, Kim is available in nearly all leagues and can provide a little pop as well, with one home run already in 10 games played.

xwOBA Underachiever

Data through 7/23

This section looks at hitters with the most significant discrepancy between wOBA and xwOBA in hopes of finding a hitter who may not be hitting well now, but could begin to get on a roll, which could either make them a worthwhile waiver addition or more frequent DFS play.

Michael Harris II (.241 vs. .294)

Like many Braves hitters, Michael Harris II has greatly underachieved all season long, and although there are reasons to think that he might not get out of this funk in 2025, there are some stats that could paint a picture of brighter days ahead.

The former Rookie of the Year is hitting a paltry .214, but his xBA is .258. The reason he's in this article is due to the 53-point discrepancy in his wOBA and xwOBA. BABIP is .251, whereas his career rate is .313, which could help explain some of the difference in his expected and actual stats.

Strikeout rate? Better than average at 20.7 percent and on par with his career rate. Contact rate? That stands as 78.4 percent, the best of his career to date! So what's wrong?

The glaring problem is a 45.8 percent chase rate, ranking him in the third percentile. Chasing so much has prevented walks, registering a bottom-of-the-barrel 2.8 percent walk rate.

Looks like Michael Harris II is making an effort to correct his struggles by changing his batting stance. It looks just like early in his rookie year

1st Picture: Tonight
2nd Picture: 2 Weeks ago
3rd Picture: Michael’s first career hit in 2022 pic.twitter.com/fZzNcsws1e

— Brady Penn (@bradypenn21) July 19, 2025

The Braves know this, and supposedly, he's going to work on that approach as they've come out of the All-Star break. We'll have to see in the coming weeks if that comes to fruition.

If you want to buy low, he could be on the verge of a breakout. He's already surpassed his stolen base total from 2024, and if he could get on base more, then we could see him run more, too.

xwOBA Overachiever

Data through 7/23

Wilmer Flores (.311 vs. .279)

It was never going to last when we saw Wilmer Flores going toe-to-toe with Aaron Judge for the major league RBI lead, hitting .266 with 10 home runs and 41 RBI over his first 44 games of 2025.

In the 47 games since, he's batting .226 with two homers and 18 RBI. The veteran's expected stats foretell of further decline as well. With a 32-point differential between wOBA and xwOBA, we could see the 33-year-old continue this downward trend in productivity.

Like Harris, though, the 33-year-old is making solid contact at 83.3 percent and striking out at a better-than-average rate of 17.8 percent, so he might continue to collect hits, but with a 3.8 percent barrel rate for the season and a putrid 0.7 percent barrel rate in the last 47 games, managers can probably kiss the home run production goodbye.

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