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Andy looks at four sneaky fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups for starting pitchers in Week 17 (2025) on hot streaks, and sees if they can sustain their success.
Happy Tuesday, RotoBallers! With the All-Star break behind us, it's time to dig our heels back into fantasy baseball. While we only had three games this past weekend, we still have plenty of starting pitcher data to dive into.
This week, we will look at a veteran pitcher who is approaching must-roster territory. Additionally, we will examine a few young southpaws who could be poised for a second-half breakout.
Who should fantasy managers be targeting this week? Let's dive in!
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Max Scherzer, Toronto Blue Jays
45% Rostered
Starting things off will be veteran right-hander Max Scherzer. Scherzer inked a contract with the Toronto Blue Jays in the winter, but his tenure in Toronto has gotten off to a bit of a rocky start. The future Hall of Famer left his first start of the season early with a thumb injury and proceeded to sit on the injured list for nearly three months.
In his season debut, Scherzer allowed two runs across three innings with a strikeout and no walks.
He returned to Toronto on June 29 and stumbled through his first start, allowing six hits and three runs through five innings of work against the Cleveland Guardians. However, since the start of July, Scherzer has been rather productive and is beginning to turn the corner.
Through three starts in July (15 innings), Scherzer has held a 4.20 ERA with a strong 1.13 WHIP. Scherzer has struck out at least seven hitters in two of these outings and has only allowed more than two walks in one start.
Is the 40-year-old a must-roster going forward?
Through July, the right-hander has relied heavily on his fastball, throwing it just under 50.0% of the time. Through these three starts, this pitch has generated an impressive .160 xBA and a .313 xwOBA. While the base .231 wOBA is lower than the expected stats, a .313 xwOBA is still very solid and should not deter any fantasy managers.
His No. 2 pitch, his cutter, has posted an elite .274 xwOBA while generating whiffs at a 30.0% rate. His third pitch, a changeup, has been an elite strikeout pitch (55.6% whiff rate), but it has also allowed hard contact with a .501 xwOBA.
Overall, he has a 35.5% hard-hit rate, a 25.5% K rate, and a 7.4% walk rate, all of which are above the average marks.
While his ERA should sit in the upper 3.00s, Scherzer is a top target if looking to improve your WHIP ratio and strikeout totals. He also carries some injury risk, given not only his thumb injury this season but also the wear and tear that comes with a long 18-year MLB career.
Max Scherzer, Nasty 86mph Slider. 😨
7th K pic.twitter.com/2Slgcm3oxN
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 1, 2025
Jacob Lopez, Athletics
25% Rostered
The Athletics left-hander has been featured in my column before during the first half and appears to be breaking out of his slump. Lopez started the season tossing 14 innings to the tune of a 2.57 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP. Then, over his next two outings, he would allow 12 runs over just six innings of work.
However, the southpaw would bounce back at the start of June and go on to log 35 2/3 innings ot the tune of a 2.52 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP over the past two months. During this stretch, the left-hander has struck out 43 hitters and allowed just 11 free passes.
Which version of Lopez should managers expect going forward?
During June and July, Lopez has primarily been a two-pitch pitcher, throwing both his four-seamer and slider just under 65% of the time combined. In June, his four-seamer had the highest majority of usage (33.8%) and held a modest .363 xwOBA, while his slider (31.0%) posted an elite .164 xwOBA. Both pitches were the driving force behind his strikeout totals, as he posted a whiff rate higher than 30.0%.
However, in July, Lopez has leaned on his slider slightly more over his four-seamer. Through two starts this month, his slider has been deployed 34.9% of the time, while carrying an elite .225 xwOBA with a 41.2% whiff rate. More importantly, his four-seamer has been very effective, posting a strong .147 xWOBA with a 50.0% whiff rate.
He has mixed in a changeup and cutter, which have not had the most success in limiting hard contact, but have shown the ability to generate whiffs. His changeup has posted a 38.8% whiff rate and a 29.9% whiff rate in June and July, respectively.
Overall, the left-hander carries a 3.54 xERA with a .218 xBA, both of which are well above the average marks of quality pitchers and look quite promising in relation to the 4.20 ERA and 1.33 WHIP he holds.
Given his high upside and promising metrics, Lopez is worth targeting in all standard leagues.
Jacob Lopez is TJStats Rookie Pitch of the month for June!
The Athletics rookie posted a sparkling 2.64 ERA across 30.2 IP on the heels of his deep arsenal and deceptive delivery despite low 90s velocity! pic.twitter.com/VBWCiVf04n
— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) July 1, 2025
Slade Cecconi, Cleveland Guardians
20% Rostered
Slade Cecconi was on track to pitch a complete game on Friday against the Athletics, but fell apart in the eighth inning, allowing three runs in the final frame, which cut his bid just short.
Slade Cecconi is the 1st pitcher since Zack Greinke in 2010 to allow 6+ ER in 8+ IP and get the win 🤯
A bizarre pitching line pic.twitter.com/hhp7rDyDuf
— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) July 19, 2025
Despite this disappointing conclusion, Cecconi has been quite effective since the start of June and could be worth a look in standard leagues.
Since June 1, Cecconi has tossed 48 innings to the tune of a 3.38 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP. During this stretch, the right-hander has struck out 41 hitters and allowed 13 free passes. His ratios are quite inflated due to his late-game explosion in his most recent outing. Removing this game, Cecconi has held a 2.72 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP since June 1.
Are we witnessing a breakout for the 26-year-old?
Unlike the first two names above, Cecconi does not hold the most promising metrics. In fact, his late-game collapse was expected to happen for some time according to his underlying data. Currently, the right-hander sits in the 19th percentile in xERA (4.71 xERA) and the 24th percentile (xBA). He has allowed loud contact with a sixth percentile barrel rate and a ninth percentile hard-hit rate.
Through three starts in July, his four-seamer (deployed 42.0% of the time) has generated a hefty .549 xSLG with a .382 xwOBA.
Cecconi appears to be fool's gold on the waiver wire. While he can find value in favorable matchups, do not load your FAAB budget if you are looking to add him to your bench.
Brandon Walter, Houston Astros
18% Rostered
Rounding things out will be another left-hander, this time from Houston. Brandon Walter made his MLB debut in 2023 with Boston but struggled, posting a hefty 6.26 ERA across 23 innings. He then dealt with a shoulder strain, which kept him sidelined for the entire 2024 season.
However, the late-blooming 28-year-old has begun to find his footing in Houston. Through 46 2/3 innings, Walter has posted a solid 3.66 ERA with an eye-catching 0.96 WHIP. He has struck out 47 hitters while showing near-perfect command, with a 1.6% walk rate.
Since allowing five runs on July 3, Walter has logged 12 innings (two starts) to the tune of a 2.55 ERA and a 0.50 WHIP. He has tallied 14 punchouts over this stretch with just one free pass. Should fantasy managers be targeting Walter on the waiver wire?
Walter relies on several pitches but leans slightly in favor of his cutter, which he has deployed 27.2% of the time during the season. In July, this pitch has a 25.6% usage rate and boasts a remarkable .184 xwOBA, accompanied by a 21.2% whiff rate. His four-seamer and sweeper (24.9% and 22.4% usage rates) have been just as effective this month, carrying a .210 xwOBA and a .243 xwOBA.
Overall, Walter sits in the 88th percentile in xERA, which suggests he should continue to see significant positive regression going forward. Pairing that with elite command should make him a top target to stabilize your ratios. While his strikeout numbers may not be as high as Scherzer's or Lopez's, he should post the best ERA and WHIP out of these pitchers during the second half.
Brandon Walter is going to start a playoff game.
6 IP
3 H
1 ER
7 PUNCHIES pic.twitter.com/XGsvmfpqdU— Apollo Dez (@ApolloDez1) July 19, 2025
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