Hitter Fantasy Baseball Breakouts - Risers to Watch and Waiver Wire Outlooks (Week 10)

May 31, 2025

Jarod's hitter fantasy baseball breakouts, sleepers, and risers to watch for Week 10 of 2025. His list includes waiver wire outlooks and underachieving hitters so far.

Welcome back to my Fantasy Baseball Breakout Hitters article for Week 10 of the 2025 MLB season. The focus of this article is to highlight players who could be on the verge of a breakout, citing current active hitting streaks along with recent leaders in batting average and isolated power (ISO). You will also find expected batting average (xSLG) underachievers and overachievers.

In this week's edition, we'll dive into players like Ozzie Albies, Brandon Lowe, and Jasson Dominguez. You'll not only find out who is hot at the plate, but also which hitters deserve better results based on their expected stats, or who might be on the verge of a cold spell.

Last week, Ryan Mountcastle and Jackson Holliday were a couple of good callouts who kept on hitting. So, let's take a closer look at our breakout watch to help your fantasy baseball teams heading into Week 10. You might find a potential waiver wire target or some worthy DFS plays!

Hit Streak Leaders

Data through 5/28

Ozzie Albies (12 games)

A .245/.305/.381 slash line with five home runs over the first 35 games of the year was bearable as long as Ozzie Albies was at least healthy after missing so much time last season due to injury. But a 0-for-25 stretch that dropped his batting average down to .207 was hard to stomach.

Then Albies' bat began to wake up on May 13, and since then he's hit safely in 12 straight games, going 16-for-44 (.364) over that stretch, getting his batting average back up to .240. There is still work to do, though, as it was a homerless, zero-steal stretch, too.

An xBA of .248 and a BABIP in line with what he's recorded the last few seasons could mean there isn't a whole lot of room to run; however, an xSLG 30 points higher than his SLG (.351 vs. .381) does point to some power on the way, though.

(Update: Albies went 2-for-8 with a home run and two walks on Thursday, so the power is coming along now, too! A hit in each game extends his streak to 14 games)

Brandon Lowe (11 games)

Brandon Lowe's batting average was worse than Albies' heading into May 13, sitting at .190 before his bat woke up. Not only is the left-handed hitter riding an 11-game hit streak, he's hit safely in 14 of his last 15 games, slashing .393/.433/.786 with six home runs since May 13.

BRANDON LOWE IS ON AN ABSOLUTE HEATER pic.twitter.com/oyiE8liLFt

— Jake (@TBRaysCentral) May 25, 2025

If you recall, Lowe was named in the Week 6 edition of this article as an "xBA Underachiever," and well, here we are. If you made a move on that information and benefited from it, congratulations!

Yet the 30-year-old's current xBA of .276 compared to his actual BA of .249 suggest there could be more room to run here, and while he's on pace to hit the 20-homer plateau again this season, hopefully a boost in counting stats can follow as the RBI and run totals have been light the last couple of years.

(Update: Lowe went 1-for-4 on Thursday, extending his streak to 12 games)

Highest Batting Average Last Seven Days

Data through 5/28, minimum 13 at-bats

Ryan O'Hearn (.500 BA)

While Ryan O'Hearn has hit well over the last week, it has been a tad longer than that, with the left-handed hitter riding an eight-game hit streak of his own.

During his eight-game streak, the 31-year-old has gone 17-for-32 (.531) with two doubles, a pair of home runs, seven RBI, six runs scored, a stolen base, and a 4:3 BB:K.

Ryan O’Hearn over his last 13 games:

.458 AVG
2 HR
3 Doubles
7 RBI
7 Runspic.twitter.com/IBkGD9SHHG

— Kirk Snyder (@dynastyinfo411) May 28, 2025

The 6-foot-2 slugger doesn't get many opportunities against left-handed pitchers, but with the way he's hitting combined with the fact he's 10-for-29 (.345) against southpaws this season, that could change.

O'Hearn is available in around half of Yahoo! leagues and is eligible at both 1B and OF for interested managers; otherwise, look for opportunities to use him as a cheap option in DFS.

Highest ISO Last Seven Days

Data through 5/28, minimum 13 at-bats

Oneil Cruz continues to tear the cover off the ball, registering the hardest hit ball in the Statcast Era this past week at 122.9 mph off the bat, while James Wood has turned into the fantasy stud we all envisioned he'd be, currently hitting .287 with 15 home runs, 40 RBI, 35 runs scored, and eight steals.

Gavin Sheets (.517 ISO)

Gavin Sheets has more home runs than both of the aforementioned Cruz and Wood over the past week, though, tallying five long balls in seven games. With 11 home runs on the year, the left-handed slugger is well on his way to surpassing his current career high of 15 by the time the season is over.

Gavin Sheets HR by year:

2025 - 11 (51 games)
2024 - 10
2023 - 10pic.twitter.com/LNep1FAe1T

— Underdog MLB (@UnderdogMLB) May 28, 2025

Like O'Hearn, Sheets doesn't get much play against LHP, but unlike O'Hearn, Sheets isn't hitting lefties this season (.219), so he'll likely continue to only play against RHP, which can make him terribly frustrating in season-long fantasy. Look to use Sheets in good DFS matchups this week while he's hot.

That could be as soon as Friday night against the Pirates' Mitch Keller, whom Sheets is 2-for-4 off in his career -- including a home run.

Junior Caminero (.435 ISO)

Don't look now, but Junior Caminero is hitting for extra bases, and we all know he's got top-of-the-scale power, so look out, a power surge in the form of home runs could be coming. Personally, I hope so, so he can make my preseason bold prediction of a 40-homer season come true!

His ninth home run of the year last weekend came off the bat at 104.8, but it was his 111.3 mph groundout that stood out. When balls start getting hit that hard in bunches, good things are bound to happen.

(Update: Caminero went 3-for-6 with a double, a home run, and six RBI on Thursday)

Most Steals Last Seven Days

Data through 5/28

Jorge Mateo (five SBs)

Need steals and nothing else? Jorge Mateo is available in nearly every league and is eligible at both 2B and SS. The 29-year-old is up to 12 stolen bases on the year, which is more than the number of hits he has (10), and more than both his RBI and R totals combined (seven).

Jasson Dominguez (three SBs)

We're all waiting for Jasson Dominguez's bat to come around, as a .239 BA is not what we had in mind after so much prospect hype and after hitting .309 in 44 games at Triple-A last season. But a .339 OBP thanks to a strong 13.1 percent walk rate, along with a .413 SLG, .333 wOBA, and 116 wRC+, it hasn't all been bad.

Throw in seven steals on the season (three in the last week), well, now we have a useful fantasy asset. There isn't much in his profile that points to a higher batting average due to a low contact rate (71.3 percent) and a high strikeout rate (28.4 percent), but as long as he keeps reaching base via walk, the steals should follow, at least at a moderate pace.

But if he gets hot, the steals could come in bunches, so keep an eye out for signs of life in his bat. The 22-year-old is available in over 35 percent of leagues right now.

JASSON DOMINGUEZ WALK OFF BOMB pic.twitter.com/rx5WxFJ5LL

— Talkin' Yanks (@TalkinYanks) May 22, 2025

xSLG Underachiever

Data through 5/28 

Typically, this section is used for xBA under and overachievers, but I periodically switch it up to look at xSLG over and underachievers, and that's what I'll do this week. These guys have been hitting more (or fewer) extra-base knocks than the stats anticipate, and could soon see a change in the opposite direction.

Juan Soto (.393 vs. .569)

Fantasy managers who drafted Juan Soto are rightfully disappointed at how he's performed to this point, but need to remain patient. Contact rate (82.6 percent) and chase rate (17.2 percent) are even better than what he registered last season, while BABIP is .239 compared to .301 for his career.

Hard-hit rate and average EV are both 94th percentile or better, so this is going to turn around sooner rather than later. An xSLG of .569 versus the actual SLG of .393 also agrees that the 26-year-old will get going, specifically in the power department.

Looking at career numbers, the four-time All-Star has a career SLG of .503 in the first half, but an even more impressive .551 in the second half, so when he gets hot, it could be scorching-hot. Stay the course, Soto managers. Obviously, you aren't dropping him, but no need to trade him either.

xSLG Overachiever

Data through 5/28

Jacob Wilson (.512 vs. .403)

It sure feels like he can keep it up, but Jacob Wilson has just a 3.1 percent barrel rate and a sixth-percentile hard-hit rate, yet has 12 doubles and seven home runs on the year.

Jacob Wilson is hitting .353 with 7 HR and 4 SB.

Are you buying or selling for #FantasyBaseball? pic.twitter.com/ygmT03XcNQ

— RotoBaller MLB (@RotoBallerMLB) May 29, 2025

But you know what they say, as long as you're putting the bat on the ball, the extra-base hits will take care of themselves. The harder it comes in, the harder it goes out, right? Well, this guy has shown he can put the bat on the ball with the best of them, currently with a 91.7 percent contact rate and a measly 5.4 percent strikeout rate.

To see him hit for 20 home runs seems a bit rich, though. Unfortunately, Wilson's power may slow, but that doesn't mean he can't still be a viable fantasy shortstop if he ends up hitting .320 with 15 home runs and 25 doubles. Not to mention, he'll probably end up with double-digit steals as well.

(Update: Wilson went 0-for-3 on Thursday)

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