Scouting the Routing: 2024 Masters

As the frost recedes and Mother Earth slips into her favorite shade of green, 90 of the best golfers on the planet will play for the right to do the very same.

It's Masters week: Christmas for those of us who obsess over this sport 365 days a year, and a sacred patronage for anyone lucky enough to feel Augusta's immaculately manicured turf under their feet. Only one Green Jacket is awarded each year, and this week, unlike any other, the magnitude of the moment needs no description. For some in this field, Augusta National has been a paradise, for others, an increasingly frustrating puzzle. One thing is for certain, though: the title of Masters champion carries more weight in this sport than any other, and in six days time, one of these 90 names will be permanently affixed in the annals of golfing history.

This piece will serve to break down every key trend and statistic I'm weighing to project a player's viability to don the Green Jacket at weeks end, and set our readers up to make the crucial decisions necessary on pre-week betting boards. Without further ado, here is my comprehensive scouting report on Augusta National Golf Club and the 2024 Masters!

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The Golf Course

Augusta National Golf Club - Par 72; 7,545 yards

Past Champions

• 2023 - Jon Rahm (-12) over Brooks Koepka and Phil Mickelson
• 2022 - Scottie Scheffler (-10) over Rory McIlroy
• 2021 - Hideki Matsuyama (-10) over Will Zalatoris
• 2020 - Dustin Johnson (-20) over Sungjae Im and Cameron Smith
• 2019 - Tiger Woods (-13) over D. Johnson/B. Koepka/X. Schauffele
• 2018 - Patrick Reed (-15) over Rickie Fowler
• 2017 - Sergio Garcia (-9) over Justin Rose (playoff)

Augusta National by the Numbers (Off-The-Tee):

• Average Fairway Width -- 50.7 yards; Widest on the PGA Tour
• Average Driving Distance -- 291.7 yards; 11th highest on Tour
• Driving Accuracy -- 70.9%; Highest on Tour
• Missed Fairway Penalty -- 0.38; 11th highest on Tour
  • Rough Penalty -- 0.25; 17th lowest on Tour
  • Non-Rough Penalty -- 0.42; 14th highest on Tour
  • Missed FW Penalty Fraction -- 2.6%; 14th lowest on Tour
• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee Difficulty: (+0.007); 13th easiest on Tour

With its expansive fairways and tempered rough, Augusta National has long been considered one of the preeminent "Bombers Paradises" on the PGA Tour. Its generosity off of the tee will be one of the few allowances afforded to players this week, but an interesting development in recent years has been the surge we've seen this course display in the penalty dished out to exceptionally off-line tee shots.

Over the last three seasons, Augusta National has ranked inside the top 15 in Missed Fairway Penalty despite having some of the most benign rough and lowest penalty fractions on the PGA Tour. This development speaks to a much more subtle driving test than we've seen in weeks past, as although a wayward tee shot around Augusta National isn't going to land you in the middle of a lake or rocky outcrop, any missed fairway this week will almost assuredly compromise your ability to create a birdie opportunity.

Still, with the widest fairways on the entire PGA Tour, it's difficult not to pay at least a bit of credence to the historical bomber narrative, and distance has correlated much more highly with success at Augusta than in an average week on Tour. I would just advise a bit of caution to those leaning too heavily into driving metrics solely focused on finding the longest hitters.

Players like Bryson DeChambeau and Matthew Wolff have found out in recent years that distance is far from the only prerequisite needed to conquer this classical layout. I'll be looking primarily for players who are above average in length, but still rate out fairly well in a few key accuracy metrics (Good Drive Percentage, Distance from Edge of Fairway, etc.).

Augusta National by the Numbers (Approach):

• Green in Regulation Rate -- 57.9%; Fourth lowest on the PGA Tour
• Strokes Gained: Approach Difficulty: (-0.050); Second toughest on Tour
• Key Proximity Ranges:
  • 200+ yards (accounted for 33.1% of approach shots in 2023)
  • 150-175 yards (21.4%)
  • 175-200 yards (18.8%)

While its wide fairways act as a bit of a "soft underbelly," the second shot and beyond is where Augusta National really begins to bear its teeth. Despite measuring well above average in square footage, the greens here at Augusta National routinely rank as some of the most difficult on Tour to find in regulation. In addition, many holes this week will be cut on such minute shelves that creating premier birdie chances will be reserved only for the most precise iron players in the field -- especially with the multitude of long-iron approach shots required on Augusta's Par 3s and 4s.

Over 50% of approach shots in last year's Masters came from beyond 175 yards, and with only one par four on property measuring under 440 yards, I don't anticipate many instances this week where players will be able to hunt down flagsticks with a scoring club in hand.

Outside of the par fives, every other hole at Augusta National has played over par over the last 10 seasons and all but one of the Par 3s/4s have featured bogey rates over 20%. For this reason, hitting greens in regulation is usually all that's required to gain a leg up on the field around these demanding confines, so I'll be looking closely at players who have shown a historic acumen for peppering the putting surfaces from 175 yards and beyond.

Stats like Strokes Gained per Shot, Proximity to the Hole, and Good Shot Percentage are valuable tools in any week, but as many have stated in the lead-up to this event (particularly in regards to a certain Northern Irishman's chances), the safe, smart play at Augusta National is often the winning one. As such, I'll be looking at stats like GIR Rate and Poor Shot Avoidance from 175 yards and beyond (as well as Approach splits on other long, difficult golf courses where solid, conservative play becomes a real asset).

Augusta National by the Numbers (Around the Greens):

• Scrambling Percentage -- 52.4%; 5.2% below Tour Average 
• Sand Save Difficulty -- (-0.032); Eighth toughest on Tour
• Up-and-Down Difficulty (Fairway) -- (-0.104); Toughest on Tour
• Up-and-Down Difficulty (Rough) -- (-0.012); 11th toughest on Tour
• SG: Around the Green Difficulty: (-0.080); Toughest on Tour

The importance of precise iron play is further highlighted by the difficulty presented to those who are unable to consistently hit greens in regulation. Augusta National has ranked as the hardest course on Tour to gain strokes around the greens in two of the last three seasons, and from its tightly mown fairways, no course on the planet requires as much precision with a wedge in hand.

These unforgiving fairway lies, combined with the severe undulation of the green complexes themselves, make an elite short game one of this tournament's key separators. Looking back on this recent run of Masters champions, a world-class touch around the greens has proven to be one of the main through-lines connecting this eclectic bunch (Rahm, Scheffler, Hideki, Reed, Spieth, etc.), and even those who have tended to struggle around the greens on a week-to-week basis on Tour (D.J., Bubba, Adam Scott), had at least showcased some historical acumen around Augusta National before their respective triumphs.

I'd go as far as to say that around the green play is my second-most weighted category of the week after iron play (a sentiment I don't think I'll have anywhere else on the schedule this year). In particular, I'll be looking at a player's history chipping around Augusta National, along with a few reference points at other courses that feature similarly tight greenside surrounds (Riviera, Southern Hills, Memorial Park, etc.).

Augusta National by the Numbers (Putting):

• Average Green Size: 6,486 sq. feet
• Agronomy -- Bentgrass
• 3-Putt Percentage: 4.9% (1.9% above Tour Average)
• Strokes Gained: Putting Difficulty: (-0.022); Toughest on Tour

Moving onto the putting complexes themselves, things won't get any easier for players trying to pay off their work from tee to green. Augusta National is perhaps best known for its expansive greens featuring both lightning-fast speeds and severe undulation and if you dive into the stats, it becomes abundantly clear just how demanding this combination is.

From a lag putting perspective, no course on the PGA Tour makes it harder to gain strokes, and only the Poa Annua Bermuda Triangle of Torrey Pines, Riviera, and Pebble Beach rank as harder putting tests from mid-range (5-15 feet). Interestingly enough, however, we have seen historically poor putters like Sergio Garcia, Hideki Matsuyama, and Will Zalatoris find repeated success on these greens, while some historically good putters (Patrick Cantlay, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tyrrell Hatton) have each had a devilish time finding their footing.

I'd attribute this primarily to a small sample (only three years of available strokes gained data), but there is certainly something to be said for players who have amassed enough experience to feel a bit more at ease in these treacherous confines. The best indicator I've found to have success on these greens has been lag putting, as you'll assuredly have more than your fair share of 50+ footers around Augusta.

However, with how heavily I'm weighing each of the other three categories, putting is the one facet of the game I'm comfortable coming in underweight on in my modeling. It's the only of the four strokes gained categories that historically comes in lower than its year-long average in terms of leaderboard correlation.

No matter how good you putt it around Augusta National, your score is only going in one direction if you don't possess the requisite tee-to-green skill we've alluded to in the previous three sections. Small weight to lag putting metrics like Approach Putt Performance/3-Putt Avoidance, but in general, I'm much more willing to accept a balky putter than someone coming in with pressing concerns elsewhere.

Key Stats Roundup (in order of importance):

• Approach proficiency 175 yards and beyond -- special emphasis on Green in Regulation Rate and Proximity Splits from these selected yardages.
• Positive (or at least trending) history at Augusta National
• Touch around the greens -- particularly from tightly mown collection areas as seen at Riviera/Southern Hills/Memorial Park in recent years
• Lag Putting -- particularly on lightning fast, undulating greens. I'd look at both 3-putt avoidance and Approach Putt Performance from >30 feet. (Again, course history could mitigate some overall putting concerns this week but I would still like to see players exhibit some sort of routine touch from long range).
• Driving Distance still gets the nod for me over accuracy, although I would be careful in touting players with a propensity to really spray the ball off of the tee. Players who excel in both facets (distance/accuracy), receive a sizable bump.
• Par 5 Scoring
• Bogey Avoidance

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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

 

The Sunday Shortlist

Before the odds come out on Monday morning, here are two to three names I’ve identified as significant targets upon my initial research.

Jordan Spieth

Seventh birdie of the day for Jordan Spieth. #themasters pic.twitter.com/mpd3am2p3f

— The Masters (@TheMasters) April 9, 2023

No matter how ugly things have gotten for Jordan Spieth throughout his roller-coaster career, Augusta National has always provided a safe haven for the mercurial Texan. With one win and five additional top-four finishes in 10 career starts, he already carries one of the most impressive Masters track records in the sport -- and one that carries an especially large weight when projecting the leaderboard at a venue with the most correlative year-to-year history we see all season.

Spieth has been far from the PGA Tour's most consistent entity heading into 2024's rendition -- logging two missed cuts in Ponte Vedra and Palm Harbor to end the Florida Swing. Upon returning to his home state of Texas, however, Jordan finally showed flashes of a player who may be much closer to challenging for his fourth Major title than recent results would have suggested.

Spieth gained over nine strokes between his driving and iron play over four days in San Antonio -- his best ball-striking performance in over 14 months, and talked glowingly with the media about the state of his game (despite the recent run of poor finishes). Suppose he's able to carry over this tee-to-green form. In that case, there's truly nobody on the planet I'm more comfortable with in navigating Augusta's green complexes -- particularly considering Jordan comes into the week as one of the Tour's elite entities in both Approach Putt Performance and 3-Putt Avoidance.

Given his history around Augusta National, it's rare we ever see a palatable Masters price on Jordan Spieth. Currently posted at 22-1 in some spots, however, I'll be keeping a very close eye on how his market shifts through the week. I think there's a non-zero chance we see a 25 at some point -- particularly with how popular I envision many names priced around him will be on betting cards (Brooks, Xander, Hideki). That's a price that would prove hard for me to pass up.

Joaquin Niemann

JOAQUIN NIEMANN!!

An incredible eagle for the 23-year-old on the 9th. pic.twitter.com/Qca4RrkhW7

— Golf on CBS ⛳ (@GolfonCBS) April 7, 2022

Look through any past Masters leaderboard, and you'll find it very difficult to identify a surprise at the top of the Sunday pack, as Masters champions and contenders typically fit into one of two categories:

1. Augusta National savants who have mapped out every blade of grass on this property in their minds (think Phil Mickelson last year or Fred Couples for most of the 2010s)
2. The guys playing the best golf that season (Scheffler/Cam Smith in 2022, Rahm last year, DJ in fall 2020, etc.).

Now, the obvious answer to the second criteria is Scottie Scheffler, but if you're looking for a similarly in-form option priced at over five times Scottie's outright number, why not 25-year-old Joaquin Niemann?

Niemann has established himself as LIV Golf's leading man to this point in 2024 -- notching two wins in Jeddah and Mayakoba, and two additional top-10 finishes in Hong Kong and Miami. However, Joaquin's recent resume extends far beyond the closed-off confines of LIV, as the Chilean has also recorded four finishes of fifth or better on the Asian/DP World Tours dating back to last November.

Most notably, Niemann finished first and fifth in back-to-back starts in Australia to end last year before making his 2024 debut with a fourth-place finish in the Dubai Desert Classic (in a field that included Rory McIlroy, Cameron Young, and a host of other all-stars, and at a venue that saw both Danny Willett and Sergio Garcia lift its trophy before going on to win the subsequent Masters three months later).

Of course, with no finish better than 16th over 19 career starts, the case can certainly be made that Joaquin has not yet reached the status in Major Championships to be counted on to win one. However, Niemann has improved his standing in each of his four appearances at Augusta National (MC, T40, T35, T16) and has already notched a win at one of the few Masters corollaries we see in professional golf (2021 Genesis Invitational at Riviera). Everything I've seen over the last four months points to a top-five player in the making, and at prices bordering on 30-1, I'm compelled to take a shot on one of the game's brightest talents.

Cameron Young

Cameron Young has opened his Masters play with 3 consecutive birdies

He is currently +1100 as the outright winner pic.twitter.com/rlQPtwPgCX

— Fanatics Sportsbook (@FanaticsBook) April 6, 2023

First and foremost, I understand the reservation a lot of you will feel toward backing a guy still looking for his first PGA Tour win in the biggest event on the calendar. Special talents are capable of incredible things, however, and make no mistake about it: Cameron Young is a special talent. He's striking the ball as well as anyone on the PGA Tour right now (barring Scottie Scheffler), and in terms of the skill set required around Augusta National, there aren't many young players in the game that I'm more bullish on at this venue than the 26-year-old Wake Forest grad.

Young's combination of elite overall driving and exceptional long-iron play makes him a threat anywhere he tees it up, but especially around difficult venues that place a premium on these ball-striking traits. He's already recorded four top-10 finishes in Major Championships since bursting onto the scene two years ago, and in his last Major start at the 2023 Open, Cam lapped the field from tee to green (+15.28 strokes gained) in some of the most difficult scoring conditions we've seen in recent Open Championship memory.

At Augusta just 12 months ago, Young used an opening round 67 to finish in a tie for seventh at week's end: leading the field in Total Driving and ranking sixth in SG: Putting. That sort of positive history (particularly on the greens) should do wonders for Cam in the area of the game that has historically held him back the most from that elusive breakthrough victory.

I know there will be plenty of dissension against touting Cam Young as an outright bet this week, but with his Major Championship track record and four top-10 finishes already to his name in 2024, it's difficult to find many players above 50-1 that carry this sort of ceiling. He's legitimately two strokes away from being not just a Tour winner, but a two-time Major champion. I don't think his price fully encompasses that upside.

 

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