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We're back to getting these weird three-game slates on Saturdays in the NBA, but that's OK because there's still money to be made! Rostership gets much more concentrated on these slates, and while it's essential to find the under-owned players, it's even more critical to identify the chalk picks correctly. Giannis, Middleton, and the crew won't have Damian Lillard for tonight's action - we will have lots of interest on the Milwaukee side. The Celtics-Pelicans game rates out well in my K-Grade model, and while Zion Williamson and several Pelicans look great, it's challenging to get to the now fully healthy Boston squad.
We don't have many crucial injury situations to monitor, but anything can happen on the weekend, and it wouldn't surprise me to see a scratch or two. Jalen Johnson is the only real piece we need to monitor for now.
The key to succeeding in NBA DFS is making adjustments during the day as injury information becomes available. But it's always essential to have a game plan, with the best players and spots circled before making those adjustments. To keep up with all the latest developments and get access to updated projections, grab an NBA season pass and access our RotoBaller Premium Discord, where @chiefjustice6 is talking about the slate until lineups lock!
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I start my process with a "K-Grade" model shown below, which I've been fine-tuning for about three years. This model takes real metrics like the implied total, fantasy points per game allowed, defensive ratings, offensive ratings, and projected pace and applies them to a model with weights. It should be used as a directional guide for the slate, and I've had plenty of success with it, but stick to your process and DFS best practices. For example, a player on a team with a "D" K-Grade could easily be the top value on the slate due to a significant uptick in minutes and usage rate.
Today's NBA DFS K-Grades
Today's NBA DFS Core Plays
Let's first look at our premium projections to see who we want to target for our top spend-ups tonight.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is the clear top target on the slate. It feels odd to say, as he's $11,000 on DraftKings, but the Greek Freak is underpriced with Damian Lillard out of the lineup. Jayson Tatum is intriguing at under $10,000, but I never like prioritizing him when Boston has a fully healthy squad. I'll keep riding with Dejounte Murray, who has been dominating with extremely heavy usage over the last few weeks. Zion Williamson has two 55 DK point games over his last three, and he's a great tournament option against a stifling Boston defense.
A few mid-range salary players, notably Khris Middleton, Franz Wagner, and Bogdan Bogdanovic, stand out on this tiny slate. Middleton is the most intriguing of the bunch, as he sees a significant 8.3% usage rate bump with Lillard off the floor this season. Wagner gets an exploitable matchup against Memphis, and Bogdanovic is a little too cheap for his role in what should be an uptempo game against the Bucks.
Top Core Plays:
- Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL vs. ATL - PF/C ($11,000 DK; $12,000 FD)
- Dejounte Murray, ATL vs. CHA - PG ($9,700 DK; $10,300 FD)
- Khris Middleton, MIL vs. ATL - SF ($6,600 DK; $6,900 FD)
- Franz Wagner, ORL vs. MEM - SF ($6,500 DK; $6,800 FD)
Today's NBA DFS Value Plays
Using the same premium NBA projections, let's sort them by fantasy points per dollar to see what players are popping as the best values tonight.
Brandon Clarke is the free square play of the day. He's their typical starting power forward, and he'll be playing in his second game after returning from an Achilles' tear in March of last season. He played 21 minutes and scored 15.75 DK points in his debut - we're looking for slightly better production at a similar workload tonight. However, we'll have to get creative with our other value plays because there's not much to love other than the mid-range players who are popping in the optimizers.
Bogdanovic is underpriced but isn't quite a "value" play at $6,400. Wendell Carter Jr. and Jalen Suggs are two Orlando players who should see more than enough minutes to provide value against a severely undermanned Grizzlies team. Suggs gets the edge over WCJ due to his higher ceiling, but WCJ could go off against this terrible frontcourt. It's always a guessing game trying to decide between Jonas Valanciunas and Larry Nance Jr., but I like taking shots at both of them on this slate. They're both cheap pieces that help make Giannis work in lineups. JoVal (36 DK points in 23 minutes) and Nance (28.75 DK points in 25 minutes) are the rare players who can crush value in limited playing time, though it could be tough sledding against the Celtics frontcourt defense.
Top Value Plays:
- Brandon Clarke, MEM vs. ORL - C ($3,300 DK; $4,400 FD)
- Jalen Suggs vs. MEM - PG ($5,200 DK; $5,200 FD)
- Jonas Valanciunas, NOP vs. BOS - C ($3,900 DK) DraftKings Only
- Patrick Beverley, MIL vs. ATL - PG/SG ($3,600 DK) DraftKings Only
- Malik Beasley, MIL vs. ATL - SG ($4,800 DK; $5,400 FD) Prefer on DraftKings
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Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Point Guard
It's Dejounte Murray all day and all night at PG. The former Spurs' guard has turned it on with Trae Young out for the season, leading the team with a 29% usage rate. His most recent five-game stretch includes outputs of 70.75, 65.75, and 63.75 DK points, meaning his ceiling is as high as anyone's on this slate (including Giannis). The matchup against the Bucks is better than it seems, too. Milwaukee is allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game to PGs this season, and the game environment should be favorable, with both teams ranking in the top six in pace.
Jalen Suggs deserves a shoutout here, too, since he's affordable and should play around 30 minutes against a struggling Memphis backcourt. CJ McCollum is somewhat intriguing, but I don't love his chances of hitting value at an elevated salary in a brutal matchup against the Celtics. Patrick Beverley is my other primary target here. He should be in the starting lineup and play nearly 30 minutes against the Hawks, making him one of the premier values on the slate.
Top PG Options:
- Dejounte Murray vs. MIL ($9,700 DK; $10,300 FD)
- Jalen Suggs vs. MEM ($5,200 DK; $5,200 FD)
- Patrick Beverley @ ATL ($3,600 DK) DraftKings Only
Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Shooting Guard
Bogdanovic is the cream of the crop at the shooting guard position tonight, barring any injury news. He's on a roll with over 34 DK points in three straight games, including a 42.25 DK point game against the Celtics his last time out. As mentioned before, he's just a little too cheap for his #2 role on this offense, and this is a great game environment for fantasy points to be scored. Trey Murphy III is a solid tournament option, but he's priced closer to his ceiling than his median, and a matchup against Boston doesn't inspire confidence.
Top SG Options:
- Bogdan Bogdanovic vs. MIL ($6,400 DK; $7,100 FD)
- Patrick Beverley @ ATL ($3,600 DK) DraftKings Only
- Trey Murphy III vs. BOS ($6,500 DK; $6,600 FD)
Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Small Forward
Bogdanovic is my favorite play at the SF position, but there are a few others to touch on here. Khris Middleton steps into a much more significant role with Damian Lillard off the court, and he's underpriced for his role in the offense. The Hawks offer little defensive resistance, so I'm all over Middleton in this spot. Franz Wagner looks solid at a similar price point, but he hasn't shown much of a ceiling lately and could see fewer minutes if they dominate the Grizzlies.
Anything can happen with the Grizzlies' rotations these days, and we saw some weird playing time allotments from them in their shootout against the Lakers on Wednesday. Jake LaRavia played 32 minutes and popped off for 42 DK points, hitting 7-of-9 threes. He probably won't play as many minutes in this one, but there's a good chance he earned more playing time with that performance. There's also a high likelihood of this game turning ugly quickly, in which case LaRavia could see some blowout run.
Top SF Options:
- Bogdan Bogdanovic vs. MIL ($6,400 DK; $7,100 FD)
- Khris Middleton @ ATL ($6,600 DK; $6,900 FD)
- Franz Wagner vs. MEM ($6,500 DK; $6,800 FD)
- Jake LaRavia @ ORL ($4,400 DK) DraftKings Only
- Trey Murphy III vs. BOS ($6,500 DK; $6,600 FD)
Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Power Forward
We have Giannis, Zion, and everyone else at power forward tonight. Those two are the clear targets for reasons mentioned in the "Core Plays" section, and I'm doing everything I can to fit them into lineups. Giannis is my preferred target by a mile, but Zion's matchup against Boston could cause him to get overlooked.
I'll be mixing in LaRavia, Lamar Stevens, and Herbert Jones for value and take some shots on Paolo Banchero and Jayson Tatum, but my exposure will be focused on Giannis.
Top PF Options:
- Giannis Antetokounmpo @ ATL ($11,000 DK; $12,000 FD)
- Zion Williamson vs. BOS ($8,900 DK; $9,200 FD)
- Herbert Jones vs. BOS ($5,400 DK) DraftKings Only
- Jake LaRavia @ ORL ($6,500 DK) DraftKings Only
Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Center
There's a lot to like here on DraftKings. Brandon Clarke and Giannis are the clear top targets, but Wendell Carter Jr., JoVal, and Larry Nance Jr. are all very intriguing. Wendell Carter Jr. hasn't shown much lately, but he could feast on a terrible Memphis frontcourt that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to centers this season. Valanciunas and Nance Jr. are coming off value-crushing games, and their production will be needed if the Pels want to keep up with the Boston frontcourt.
- Giannis Antetokounmpo @ ATL ($11,000 DK; $12,000 FD)
- Brandon Clarke @ ORL ($3,300 DK; $4,400 FD)
- Jonas Valanciunas vs. BOS ($4,700 DK) DraftKings Only
- Larry Nance Jr. vs. BOS ($4,200 DK) DraftKings Only
Today's Top NBA DFS Game Environments
- Milwaukee vs. Atlanta (223 implied total)
- Boston vs. New Orleans (223 implied total)
Today's Top NBA DFS Avoids
- Tatum doesn't fit into my lineup builds with how everything works out. The main reason is that he's slightly more expensive than Murray, who projects for more points with an enticing ceiling. He also doesn't comfortably work in lineups with Giannis, who is over $1,000 more expensive. I'll be passing on Tatum and staying away from Boston tonight.
- Jaren Jackson Jr. isn't doing it for me. Like Tatum, he's too expensive to prioritize with our other high-end options. He also hasn't shown much of a ceiling lately, failing to exceed 45 DK points in seven straight games heading into tonight.
- De'Andre Hunter. I love playing Murray and Bogdanovic tonight, but Hunter's game is too inconsistent for my tastes. We typically want to target volatile players like him in NBA DFS, but the matchup is rough, and he puts up too many sub-20 DK point games. He finished with 16.25 DK points the last time these teams met, shooting 3-for-10 with one rebound and two steals.
My Favorite NBA DFS Lineup Picks for Today
Here is where I leave you with some of my favorites.
- My favorite overall play: Giannis Antetokounmpo
- My favorite CASH play: Giannis Antetokounmpo / Dejounte Murray
- My favorite GPP play(s): Jake LaRavia
- My favorite value play(s): Brandon Clarke
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