RADIO
Robert's fantasy football players to drop when making waiver wire moves for Week 12 (11/21/2023). He helps fantasy football managers decide on who to cut from rosters.
Welcome to Week 12's Edition of the Cut List. With most trade deadlines in the rearview window, we'll no longer be touching base on sell-high or sell-low players. Instead, I'll be adding an "uh-oh..." section, which will focus on players whose fantasy football value is falling. They're not quite on the hot seat, but maybe they've fallen past having the benefit of the doubt, like the players in the hold section.
Any player listed on the Cut List isn't a player that absolutely needs to be cut. They're just cuttable players, that's all. Each situation is different. Each league is different. If your league hordes quarterbacks, you may not have the luxury of dropping a struggling passer. It's important to understand and know your own leagues and know how your opponents value players. With that said, hopefully, this article will give you some advice on which players you can safely send to the waiver wire.
Deciding who to cut can always be a difficult process, but it's important to take emotions out of the equation. Below you'll find the biggest names that managers can safely cut in traditional 10 and 12-team leagues. You will also find players that you should hold if possible. If you have any questions, give me a follow @RobFFSlayer and shoot me a message. My DMs are always open and I’m more than willing to answer questions.
Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.
Quarterbacks to Cut in Week 12?
Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks - 73% Rostered
I am aware that Smith struggled with an elbow injury that kept him out for part of the second half. However, that won’t save him here. Smith has just two games where he’s scored 16 or more points. Those two games came against Detroit and Washington. From Weeks 1-10, Washington has given up the most points to opposing quarterbacks this season. Detroit has given up the fourth-most. Those were the only two weeks where Smith has scored 16 or more points.
Seahawks’ Geno Smith has ‘a great chance’ to play Thanksgiving game following triceps injury vs. Rams ⤵️ https://t.co/0AvAttmw53
— The Athletic NFL (@TheAthleticNFL) November 20, 2023
I have absolutely no interest in continuing to roster Smith. Especially with their remaining schedule, which goes like this: 49ers, Cowboys, 49ers, Eagles, Titans, and Steelers. Those last three contests are Weeks 15-17 and the fantasy football playoffs. These teams rank 29th, 23rd, 29th, eighth, 17th, and 21st, respectively in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks this season. He has one remaining game against a defense in the top half of points allowed. It's just a brutal stretch of games. If you need a nail in the coffin, it should be a potentially lingering elbow injury to his throwing arm.
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams - 47% Rostered
I was hopeful Stafford would turn things around once Cooper Kupp got back onto the field, but that hasn’t been the case. In fact, his return has resulted in little to no effect on Stafford’s fantasy value. Since Kupp returned in Week 5, Stafford has just one game over 14.5 points. He had back-to-back outings in Weeks 4 and 5, scoring 16.2 and 16.9 points. Those are his only two games this season with more than 15 points. Since that 16.9 outing in Week 5, Kupp's first game back, Stafford has averaged 12.1 points per game. He has just one game this season with multiple touchdown passes. He has not thrown for over 235 yards in a game since Week 4.
To make matters even worse, his final stretch of games isn’t exactly easy. He has matchups against the Browns, Ravens, and Saints in Weeks 13, 14, and 15. These three teams are allowing the fewest, second-fewest, and 11th-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. On top of all of that, Kupp hurt his ankle.
Others to Cut: Will Levis, Tennessee Titans - 29% Rostered
Running Backs to Cut in Week 12?
Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans - 71% Rostered
From Weeks 1-8, Pierce averaged 7.4 half-PPR points per game. He averaged 47 rushing yards per game with 3.0 yards per carry. In those first seven games, he was held to under 40 yards in four of them. His highest rushing total was 81 yards. During that same stretch, Pierce earned just 12 targets. He caught nine of them for 84 yards. That amounts to just over one catch per game for 12 yards. He was essentially offering nothing in the passing game. Most, including myself, attributed his poor rushing efficiency to the endless injuries to the offensive line. Over the past two weeks, that’s become a very tough sell.
That’s because, in Weeks 10 and 11, Devin Singletary has rushed for 150 and 112 yards respectively on 30 and 22 carries. Singletary had a dud in Week 9 against a tough Tampa Bay defense where he finished with just 26 yards on 13 carries. However, even including that game, Singletary is averaging 96 yards per game and has a 4.4 yards per carry average. He’s averaged 15.0 half-PPR PPG in the last three weeks.
Pierce was a limited participant last week Friday, signaling he’ll likely be back on the field in Week 12. However, based on Singletary’s play, it’ll likely be as his backup. Fantasy managers should expect Singletary to continue operating in the 1A role with Pierce as the 1B. In fact, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Singletary still carry the majority of the load considering his effectiveness these past two weeks. The Texans have the Jaguars, Broncos, Jets, Titans, Browns, and Titans to close out the season. It’s a tough stretch. The Jaguars are allowing the 11th-fewest points to opposing running backs. The Titans are allowing the 15th-fewest and the Browns are allowing the 12th-fewest. Denver’s defense has also flipped a switch since their contest against Miami.
Miles Sanders, Carolina Panthers - 53% Rostered
Since missing Week 6 with an injury, Sanders’ role has been steadily on the rise. To be fair though, it basically started in the dumpster coming out of Week 8. In that game, he played just 18% of the snaps and finished with two carries for zero yards. In Week 9, he played 25% of the snaps. He received six carries and finished with 39 yards. He also caught three of five targets for 22 yards. His snap percentage increased again in Week 10, up to 38%, but his workload decreased. He received just two carries and finished with negative five yards. He also caught both of his targets for 15 yards. This past weekend was his best game since Week 1 in terms of rushing yards.
He played 46% of the team’s snaps, coming close to drawing even with Chuba Hubbard. He received 11 carries and had 50 yards. He caught his lone target for two yards. Some may see his expanding role and get excited. I see a committee back on what would be the league’s worst offense if it weren’t for Zach Wilson. That to me isn’t a player that needs to be rostered. His remaining stretch of games just solidifies that.
The Panthers close out the season with the Titans, Buccaneers, and Saints, and then have the Falcons, Packers, and Jaguars in the fantasy football playoffs. That’s a really tough schedule. The Titans are allowing the 15th-fewest points to opposing running backs. The Saints and Falcons are allowing the third and second-fewest points, respectively. The Jaguars are allowing the 11th-fewest. Considering his snap share, committee status, and schedule remaining, what is the upside here? When are you going to feel confident starting him?
Darrell Henderson Jr., Los Angeles Rams - 52% Rostered
Much like last season, Henderson was seemingly demoted, largely out of the blue. After having been the Rams’ lead back for the majority of Kyren Williams’ IR stay, Henderson took a backseat to Royce Freeman this past weekend. Henderson received just six carries and finished with one yard. Freeman had 17 carries and finished with 73 yards. Henderson did save his fantasy day by finding the end zone on one of his six carries and catching four of his seven targets for 28 yards. However, Henderson played just 36% of the snaps. Freeman played 63%.
Williams is eligible to return in Week 12 and should he be active, he’ll likely take the reins back. Even if it’s a committee approach for this upcoming weekend, it would seem as though Freeman is likely the beneficiary if the team opts to work Williams back in slowly. Due to Williams’ hopeful return and Henderson’s demotion, he can be safely cut.
Other Running Backs to Cut: Zack Moss, Indianapolis Colts - 54% Rostered, Ezekiel Elliott, New England Patriots - 38% Rostered, Justice Hill, Baltimore Ravens - 24% Rostered,
Wide Receivers to Cut in Week 12?
Jakobi Meyers, Las Vegas Raiders - 82% Rostered
Aidan O'Connell has started four games for the Raiders this season. In those four games, Meyers is averaging 6.7 half-PPR PPG. In five seasons in the NFL, Meyers has 24 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown combined. Why is that relevant? Because in one of O'Connell’s starts, Meyers had 17 yards rushing and a score. If we take away that lone play, a clear and obvious outlier based on Meyers’ five-year career, that 6.7 half-PPR PPG average drops to 4.8.
He is averaging just four targets, 2.5 receptions, and 35.3 receiving yards per game with O'Connell under center. He has zero games with over 50 receiving yards and just one game with more than two receptions. He was on the hot seat last week, but he’s an easy cut now. It’s made even worse since the Raiders haven't had their bye yet and have two games against the Chiefs, who are allowing the fourth-fewest points to receivers this season.
Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers - 62% Rostered
I’m not going to let one 11-yard touchdown pass deter me from the fact that Watson has been brutal this season. He’s been outplayed by teammate Romeo Doubs, as well as rookies Dontayvion Wicks and Jayden Reed. His target share is at just 16.8%. He has yet to catch more than three passes in a game this season. He has one game over 40 receiving yards.
This past weekend, Doubs had five catches for 53 yards. Wicks had three catches for 91 yards. Reed had four catches for 46 yards and three carries for 46 rushing yards. Watson had two catches for 28 yards. Six Packer players had more receiving yards than he did. Five had more receptions. He was tied for fifth in targets.
It was the same thing in Week 10 against the Steelers. Wicks had three catches for 51 yards. Doubs had three catches for 31 yards and a touchdown. Reed had 84 yards and a touchdown. Rookie tight end Luke Musgrave had two catches for 64 yards. Watson had two catches for 23 yards. The past two weeks, there have been not one, not two, not three, but four and sometimes five Packer players more involved and productive in the passing game. That is a major, major yikes. One short touchdown catch isn’t changing that narrative.
Other Wide Receivers to Cut: Elijah Moore, Cleveland Browns - 42% Rostered, K.J. Osborn, Minnesota Vikings – 32% Rostered
On The Hot Seat
RB Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers - 63% Rostered
When Sanders was hurt in Week 5, Hubbard became a volume-dependent option. He had 19 carries in Week 6, 15 in Week 8, and 16 in Week 9. Carolina was on a bye in Week 7. During those three games, Hubbard was averaging 19 touches per game. Despite the amazing volume, he averaged just 70 scrimmage yards per game. He scored 15.5 half-PPR points in Week 6 and followed that up with 6.4 and 8.7. He found the end zone in Week 6, boosting his final score. Despite the volume, he was largely operating as a volume-dependent RB3 with RB2 upside in the event that he found the end zone. Considering Carolina’s offensive woes, it's not a strong weekly bet.
Over the last two weeks, however, with Sanders’ role continuing to increase again, Hubbard has just 23 touches. His scrimmage yards per game average has dropped from 70 to 52. He’s scored just 4.9 and 7.5 half-PPR points in Weeks 10 and 11. Hubbard had been dominating the snap counts and the backfield touches in Weeks 6-9, but that’s no longer been the case the past two weeks.
The Carolina backfield is becoming a 1A and 1B committee. The split workload on one of the worst offenses in the NFL makes both of these players irrelevant. Hubbard is on the hot seat where Sanders is a cut because Hubbard is still technically the 1A, but both of these players are cuttable if there are better options on the waiver wire. As already discussed in the Sanders section above, the Panthers have a brutal schedule the rest of the way for a fantasy running back.
Hold On
WR Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos - 67% Rostered
I’m going to make the same argument for Jeudy as I did with Calvin Ridley last week. The volume is there. The production hasn’t always been, but it’s also probably not as bad as you think either. Jeudy has played in nine games this season. He has five or more targets in eight of them. He has seven targets in three contests. He also has three or more receptions in eight games. He has five or more receptions in four of them. We’re not talking about a must-start receiver here, but we’re also not describing a dude who should be cut either.
He has 50 or more yards in six of his nine games this season. He’s currently on pace for 94 targets, 66 receptions, and 810 yards. Again, he's not a weekly fantasy starter, but those numbers certainly deserve a spot on a fantasy football bench. His fantasy numbers would look a lot better with a few more touchdowns, but unfortunately, he has just one.
However, he still boasts a 20.6% target share and has a 33.7% air yard share, which ranks 23rd among receivers. He’s averaging 69 air yards per game. Hopefully, some of these deeper targets will start connecting. His average depth of target is 12.9, which ranks 17th among receivers. Still, he’s scored eight or more half-PPR points in five of his nine games.
It hasn’t been pretty, but he’s worth holding onto. The Broncos get to play the Chargers twice this year and they’re allowing the most fantasy points to receivers this season. They will also play the Lions, who are allowing the 11th-most points to receivers, as well as the Patriots and Texans, who are right in the middle. It’s a strong schedule the rest of the way.
Uh-Oh...
WR George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers - 87% Rostered
Not too long ago, I had listed Pickens as a hold. He’s made his way onto the “uh-oh” section of this article and if things don’t change soon, he’ll be on the hot seat next. Since Diontae Johnson returned in Week 7, Pickens has just one game with more than 45 receiving yards. He averaged eight targets per game in Weeks 1-5, but that has dropped to 5.6 in the past five weeks. Not surprisingly, his receptions and yards per game averages have dropped significantly, too. He averaged 4.4 receptions per game in the first five games of the season, but that has fallen to 3.0. His yards have gone from 78.6 per game to 42.2. Since Johnson returned, Pickens’ per-game averages would equal 95 targets, 51 receptions, and 717 yards over 17 games.
He has 28 targets, 15 receptions, and 211 yards since Johnson returned. 29% of those targets, 33% of his receptions, and 51% of those yards came in Week 7, Johnson’s first game back from his IR stint. Over the last four weeks, Pickens is averaging 5.0 targets, 2.5 receptions, and 26 yards per game. He scored 8.7 half-PPR points in Week 8 but finished with just one catch for 22 yards. Luckily for him and fantasy managers, it was for a touchdown. In the following three weeks, he scored 0.9, 6.0, and 5.7 in half-PPR scoring.
He displayed early in the season that he’s clearly a talented player, which is the only reason he’s not a cut right now, but the offensive woes and the quarterback ineptitude are really hindering him. It’s tough to believe that anything is going to change in that regard, but as a believer in betting on talent, I’ll continue to hold Pickens for just a bit longer.
