RADIO
Week 9 had several "ugly" matchups and there aren't many new names cropping up at this point, so I'll try to ignore bigger fish that have appeared in past weeks. I'll hone in on potential handcuffs and map out your specific bye-week needs as depth can be critical. As always, joining our famous waiver wire pickups list and our weekly fantasy football waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB).
As a caveat, these prices do not indicate how much these free-agent players will go for. Each league values players differently and will continue to do so. These values provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be looking to spend on a particular player, but we've now added different categories of bids to reflect team-need situations.
Take a deep breath, because Week 10 is tough on byes and light on reliable reinforcements. We'll be without the Chiefs, Dolphins, Eagles, and Rams this upcoming weekend. Here are my median FAAB bid ranges and adds going into Week 10.
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FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Quarterbacks
Joshua Dobbs (QB, MIN) - 17% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-2%
Aggressive Bid: 2-4%
With minimal preparation, Dobbs came on in relief to lead the Vikings to a 31-28 comeback victory over the Falcons. After he got his legs underneath him, he was off to the races logging a season-best 66 rushing yards with a pair of passing TDs.
He’s now rushed for a touchdown in three straight games and has over 40 rushing yards in six of nine contests this season. The Vikes are expecting Dobbs to make a Week 10 start against New Orleans and then it gets murky, with Jaren Hall (concussion) and Nick Mullens (back) potentially returning. Plus-matchups against Denver and Chicago await in Weeks 11 and 12 for whoever starts, with Dobbs owning the lead.
QB’s averaging 35.0+ rushing YPG this season:
⁃ Lamar Jackson
⁃ Justin Fields
⁃ Jalen Hurts
⁃ Joshua DobbsJoshua Dobbs is the “Konami Code” nobody is talking about.
— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) November 6, 2023
Taylor Heinicke (QB, ATL) - 11% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-2%
Aggressive Bid: 2-4%
Heinicke completed 21-of-38 pass attempts for 268 yards, a touchdown, and an interception in a 31-28 loss to Minnesota. He sprinkled in three rushes for 20 yards and certainly pushed the ball further downfield than Desmond Ridder had done.
You can scoff at the overall line but you’ll recall Drake London was out with a groin injury and both Mack Hollins (ankle) and Cordarrelle Patterson (ankle) exited early. The focus will be on the Falcons losing to Joshua Dobbs but Heinicke can avenge the loss against Dobbs’ old team in Arizona next week. The Cards have allowed a 10:2 TD/INT ratio over their last five games.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Running Backs
Keaton Mitchell (RB, BAL) - 4% rostered
FAAB Bid: 7-10%
Aggressive Bid: 10-15%
Desperation Bid: 15-25%
We finally got to witness Mitchell’s speed on Sunday, as the rookie flew through the gap for a 40-yard score. He also had a 60-yard scamper to fuel 138 rushing yards on just nine carries.
It’s difficult to imagine more than 10 to 12 touches as long as Gus Edwards and Justice Hill are healthy, but Mitchell could be the Baltimore De'Von Achane. He has sheer explosiveness that needs him to make the most of his touches, but remember that Baltimore is not Miami in terms of potency. Still, he’s well worth an add after the ceiling we just saw.
For people interested in what kind of upside Keaton Mitchell might have going forward:
* Handled four carries for 8, 9, 9, 11 yards when the score was 7-0 in Q2.
* Last rush came at 11:27 mark in Q4.
Justice Hill had six ruATTs AFTER that 11:27 mark when starters were pulled.
— Zachary Krueger (@ZK_FFB) November 6, 2023
Leonard Fournette (RB, BUF) - 31% rostered
FAAB Bid: 6-8%
Aggressive Bid: 8-12%
Desperation Bid: 12-16%
Latavius Murray once again stunk, registering 10 total yards on three touches. James Cook wasn’t much more effective, turning his 10 touches into 39 yards as Buffalo struggled for consistent movement against Cincinnati. Fournette remained on the practice squad but it’s clear the Bills need a spark in the backfield, so let’s see if Lenny can supply it.
Keaontay Ingram (RB, ARI) - 26% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-3%
Aggressive Bid: 3-5%
Desperation Bid: 5-6%
Ingram only tallied eight yards on nine carries in a horrendous Week 9 showing, as he failed to capitalize on being the last RB standing in the room. Emari Demercado was out with a toe injury and Damien Williams is on the practice squad IR, but Ingram is now averaging 2.2 yards per carry in ‘22 and across his (short) career.
Perhaps James Conner comes back alongside Kyler Murray in Week 10, but if not then Ingram could ride Kyler’s coattails to a red-zone plunge. Some of you are desperate for anyone sniffing double-digit touches, so here we are.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Wide Receivers
Demario Douglas (WR, NE) - 35% rostered
FAAB Bid: 8-12%
Aggressive Bid: 12-18%
Desperation Bid: 18-25%
Douglas led New England with 55 receiving yards on five catches in their first game following Kendrick Bourne’s season-ending knee injury. To his credit, JuJu Smith-Schuster also notched 51 yards via six catches, with both seeing seven targets.
Mac Jones may not be good, but six to eight weekly looks from a wet sock would carry value so here we are. Douglas gets the pop over JJSS because his burst and agility can provide yards after the catch, while JJSS likely isn’t breaking away from anyone.
In the wake of Kendrick Bourne's ACL tear, #Patriots showed they don't view Rd 6 rookie WR Demario Douglas as a mere slot. Pop yesterday:
* 53-of-64 snaps
* 34 WIDE, 19 slot (previously was in slot on 82% of snaps)
* 38 routes on 46 Mac Jones dropbacks
* 7 targets for a 15.9%…— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) November 6, 2023
Michael Wilson (WR, ARI) - 12% rostered
FAAB Bid: 6-8%
Aggressive Bid: 8-12%
Desperation Bid: 12-16%
His FAAB demand should be tempered by his missing Week 9 with a shoulder injury. In lieu of hard evidence, I choose to believe Arizona determined risking an iffy Wilson wasn’t worth it against a stout Cleveland defense with Clayton Tune at QB. We hope Wilson returns to action alongside Kyler Murray’s return in Week 10 against a vulnerable Atlanta secondary, which may spark a fun stretch run for the rookie.
Zay Jones (WR, JAX) - 19% rostered
FAAB Bid: 5-8%
Aggressive Bid: 8-12%
Desperation Bid: 12-15%
Jones might be a forgotten man on the wire following three missed weeks and a Week 9 bye. He’s only played in two games this year not missed or mired by a knee issue, and he has a touchdown in both of them.
It isn’t automatic, but his red-zone rapport with Trevor Lawrence is clear. Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, and Travis Etienne are stellar receiving weapons so no one can reasonably get doubled. Jacksonville takes on San Francisco in Week 10 and should need all hands on deck. If Jones is healthy then he should be rostered.
Quentin Johnston (WR, LAC) - 30% rostered
FAAB Bid: 4-6%
Aggressive Bid: 6-10%
Desperation Bid: 10-15%
Johnston showed promise with a 6-50-0 line against Chicago in Week 8 before Monday night’s no-show game against the Jets (2-14-0 on three targets). Joshua Palmer on the IR means the rookie is in full “sink or swim” territory now.
The Chargers will do their best to lean on Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, and their two tight ends, but Johnston will get several opportunities as a starter. The Jets are a truly stifling defense and brighter skies should await the youngster in a possible shootout with Detroit in Week 10.
Noah Brown (WR, HOU) - 2% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-3%
Aggressive Bid: 3-5%
Desperation Bid: 5-7%
Normally, Brown posting a career-high 153 yards here would call for a wad of FAAB cash. He made the most of Robert Woods’ absence by taking one of his six catches for 75 yards to the house in an iconic 39-37 victory for the Texans.
It was a magical streaming situation against a funnel Tampa Bay defense where Houston was without its top running back and lost its kicker early. (Shoutout to Dare Ogunbowale for nailing a field goal in relief, though.) If Woods misses Week 10 then Brown should be needed to keep up with Joe Burrow and the Bengals, but his long-term prospects are low.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Tight Ends
Luke Musgrave (TE, GB) - 22% rostered
FAAB Bid: 3-5%
Aggressive Bid: 5-8%
Desperation Bid: 8-12%
Musgrave was stuck in another mild game until a double-fake screen left the rookie wide-open down the middle for his first NFL TD. Per PFF, Musgrave ran 25 routes, which was tied for the team lead with Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson.
The Packers didn’t have to push hard against Brett Rypien’s Rams, but games against the Chargers, Lions, and Chiefs are on the horizon beyond Week 10 at Pittsburgh. Musgrave would also get a boost if Watson’s injuries suffered on a leaping catch limit him beyond this week.
Well done here on the block and release for Packers rookie TE Luke Musgrave for his first career touchdown.
Musgrave flashing some of his athleticism scampering into the endzone after the catch. pic.twitter.com/qWmxohoREY
— Seven Rounds in Heaven (@7RoundsInHeaven) November 5, 2023
Jonnu Smith (TE, ATL) - 28% rostered
FAAB Bid: 0-2%
Aggressive Bid: 2-4%
Desperation Bid: 4-5%
Smith went off for 100 yards on five catches, boosted by a lovely 60-yard score that showed Smith still has burst. This couldn’t have come at a better time, as Smith only had four targets and 40 combined yards in Atlanta’s previous two games.
Whether this is a blip tied to the many ATL pass-catcher injuries or a reflection of Taylor Heinicke’s more aggressive style remains to be seen. Let’s see if a Kyler Murray-led Cardinals team can push Atlanta into more action this week before Atlanta’s Week 11 bye.
Cade Otton (TE, TB) - 5% rostered
FAAB Bid: 0-2%
Aggressive Bid: 2-4%
Desperation Bid: 4-5%
Otton has never been pushed for opportunity in 2023, but it took until Week 9 for him to top 45 yards! The offense is centralized through Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Rachaad White, but a 76-point shootout with Houston is all it took to unlock Otton.
Sarcasm aside, Otton’s two-touchdown day also gives him 15 catches over the last three weeks. PFF gave him 30 routes run, the same as Evans and Godwin, as Ko Kieft and Payne Durham handle most TE blocking duties. The Bucs have several plus TE matchups down the stretch if Otton’s momentum doesn’t stall out.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Defense/Special Teams
Indianapolis Colts Defense (at NE) - 14% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-3%
Aggressive Bid: 3-5%
Desperation Bid: 5-6%
The Colts trampled an inexperienced Panthers team with four sacks, three turnovers, and two defensive scores. This was their best day as a unit in 2023. We can’t run it back against Bryce Young here, but they will face a reeling Mac Jones-led Patriots team that struggles to score.
Despite Washington watering down their defensive line, the Patriots failed to top 17 points for the seventh time out of nine games. The Colts have confidence going into this matchup, and should get ahead of New England, putting Jones in a spot where he has to take risks. The Pats have nine interceptions through nine games. Do I hear 10 in 10?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense (vs. TEN) - 28% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-2%
Aggressive Bid: 2-4%
Desperation Bid: 4-5%
The Bucs just got historically rolled for 39 points by C.J. Stroud and the Texans but there’s reason for optimism. The run defense did its part and Vita Vea’s return should help limit Derrick Henry. Halt Tennessee’s ground game and force their passing game to beat you.
Neither Will Levis nor Ryan Tannehill is Stroud, nor are their receivers comparable to Houston’s beyond DeAndre Hopkins. The Titans have given up 12 sacks with four turnovers across their last three games, with under 17 offensive points scored in three of their last four games.
Chicago Bears Defense (vs. CAR) - 2% rostered
FAAB Bid: 0-2%
Aggressive Bid: 2-3%
Desperation Bid: 3-4%
The Bears are not good but I try to include a defense near 0% rostered if possible. Desperate teams will celebrate having Chicago at home against Bryce Young’s scuffling offense that has averaged 14 points and five sacks allowed over its last three games.
Chicago beefed up its defensive line with Montez Sweat, who will hope to log the Bears’ first sack since Week 7 here. Those who choose this path need to pray Chicago’s offense can do enough to pressure Carolina into abandoning the ground attack and having to push downfield through Young. Beggars can’t be choosers!
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