DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The 3M Open Golf Advice (2023)

July 24, 2023

Spencer's DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for The 3M Open. His PGA DFS targets and value plays for daily fantasy golf lineups, and golfers to avoid.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week, and if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The 3M Open

We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:

PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The 3M Open

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (234-174-23) 57.35%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (434-301-59) 59.05%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 36
• Units: +311.229 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2023
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here you will find updated stats for the particular tournament – all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time round four comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (200-127-36) 61.16%
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First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
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One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
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Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

• We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

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Field

Field Size: 156
Cut: Top 65 & Ties
Top 20 Entrants: 2

Last Five Winners Of The 3M Open

Expected Cut-Line

TPC Twin Cities

7,481 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bentgrass

Designed by Arnold Palmer and Tom Lehman in 2000, the venue has recently seen a few changes - most notably getting extended by over 300 yards versus its typical Champions Tour layout to prepare for the 2019 iteration of the event. That added distance has allowed golfers to use length as an advantage for taking apart this relatively wide-open (yet still claustrophobic test). However, tournament founder Hollis Cavner described the venue best when he called it "birdies and train wrecks."

Fifteen holes will see water come into play. That makes the course the highest penalty property on tour when looking into the 303 water balls in 2023. That answer might start making you believe a single-digit winner is possible, but there are still ample opportunities available if you can avoid disaster with all the traps present.

Three of the four par-threes do stretch beyond 200 yards. The par-fives yield the most robust opportunities - ranging between a 36.4% to 52.1% birdie or better rate. And the par fours generate this eclectic mix that will see five of the better possibilities coming between 379 to 424 yards.

Like all somewhat challenging courses, the other six par-fours do ramp back up the difficulty to the tune of each ranking inside the nine most difficult at the venue, meaning if you are modeling par-four scoring as a whole, I would be cognizant of looking for both short par-four scoring where birdies are easy to come by and medium length formidable setups.

We have historically seen massive increases in expected production for off-the-tee and approach stats, with the off-the-tee metrics yielding a 4.4 increase in dispersion of scoring and approach bettering that at 6.1%. That combination of ball-striking will outweigh any of your menial short-game metrics and renders this reduction that dictates finding fairways and greens if you want to succeed.

Overall, a variety of weighted proximity, ball-striking, TPC scoring and a weighted mixture of all three scoring zones is most predictive of what we need from a golfer to compete at TPC Twin Cities. Still, some luck will come into play, which you might notice by three of the past four winners at this course taking home the title at odds of over 100/1.

Let's Look At The Stats

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Strokes Gained Ball Striking (25%)

OTT + Fast Bentgrass (7.5%)

Strokes Gained Total Hard Scoring (10%)

Strokes Gained Total Wind (7.5%)

Weighted Putting Geared Toward Total (10%)

SG: Total TPC (12.5%)

Weighted Scoring (20%)

GIR + Weighted Proximity (7.5%)

Total Number Of Top 10's Out Of The Eight Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.

First Look Into Outright Bets

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are four players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.

It has become the standard weekly answer of trying to handicap a board where most of the names in the $10,000 section are inside the top handful of my sheet. A lot of this comes down to gut and feel before we mix that in with ownership later in the week.

I don't have a huge early lean one way or the other. Ownership will matter heavily, although I will say all options are in play. If you made me power rank the group right now, I would say Cam Young, Sungjae Im, Hideki Matsuyama and Tony Finau.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

Gary Woodland ($9,200) 

I like the $9,000 section. You will probably get a popular Ludvig Aberg that you need to make a decision on this week. Stephan Jaeger and Cameron Davis are both in play. I believe Justin Thomas is worth a swing if the ownership stays condensed. However, with all that being said, I am going to highlight Gary Woodland as the best value when considering all possibilities in this range at the moment.

Woodland is trending with five consecutive made cuts and possesses a last-24 tee-to-green production rate that is second in the field. We see that potential further heightened with his fifth-place grade for scoring on challenging holes and a recalculated par-five potential that jumps nearly 48 spots from his baseline projection to his forecasted performance at TPC Twin Cities. Woodland's ball striking is elite, and the reduction the field experiences with their short games should only help his ceiling.

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

Keith Mitchell ($8,600) 

It has been a bad two-week stretch for Keith Mitchell. I am willing to ignore his missed cut at the Barracuda because of the totality of that letdown situation of not qualifying for the Open Championship. Nonetheless, it was the missed cut at the Scottish Open that actually further piqued my curiosity since my model graded him as one of the most significant underachievers during a week on the leaderboard that I have encountered in quite some time.

Mitchell gained a whopping 6.74 shots ball striking over his two rounds of golf in Scotland, a total that projected him as a top-five option on the leaderboard when adding in his baseline short game statistics over his actual performance.

Unfortunately, that potential result never came to fruition after he missed the weekend by losing 6.83 shots with his short game. That last part isn't ideal, but TPC Twin Cities' regression in the more volatile areas should only help to propel the potential he brings off the tee. I am going to shoot for that upside outcome in GPPs and outright sectors.

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and create the possibility to weigh the data to create your own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

Here are the top players from the $7,000s

Nicolai Hojgaard ($7,900) 

The ownership has not caught up with Hojgaard's recent surge. Three consecutive top-23 finishes will present a fun profile for the Danish 22-year-old professional. The seventh-place grade for weighted scoring and eighth-place total for projected strokes gained ball striking should only add more areas to target him outside of safety.

Ryan Fox ($7,600) 

If we remove the questionable TPC production in his career, the overall makeup for Ryan Fox is impressive. My one concern for him as an outright bet was that he didn't generate a ton of the upside metrics I wanted to see to push him toward the winner's circle, but the same solution could have been given for Brian Harman last week and we all know how that one  played out.

Fox's driving ability and overall ball striking could pay massive dividends.

Kevin Yu ($7,100) 

If Yu wasn't forced into surgery early in the year to repair a meniscus tear, I have a feeling we wouldn't be in this range of getting him as a $7,100 option on the DraftKings board for an event of this quality.

The weighted scoring renders real win potential, and the driver is a weapon that can add to his ceiling.

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

Kevin Roy ($6,400) 

Brice Garnett's course history is some of the best in the field, but let's pivot to a name that likely won't garner as much traction.

Roy has been steady with two top-31 finishes over his last three starts, and his 17th-place grade for both weighted scoring and ball striking should make him a GPP target that can be considered a top-40 wager.

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Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

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