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Benjamin looks at top MLB prospects risers for fantasy baseball Week 12 (2023). His minor league hitters and pitchers to know as fantasy and dynasty sleepers.
One way to get an edge on your fellow dynasty fantasy baseball owners is by spotting guys who are doing something that's out of normal for their age at the level of the minors that they're at. Last time, we looked at players at least a full year younger than the average age at their level.
The flip side is a player who is older than his level. Typically, a player like that will need to significantly perform to still have a shot as a major league prospect. These players are also often ignored by prospect analysts and dynasty owners.
In this week's six-pack piece, we're going to look at six guys who are at least a full year older than the average player at their league level. Many of these guys if they do get a shot will end up with just a brief career because they're hitting the majors at an older start point. That said, they can be valuable during that time, so it's good to know who may be popping up that could go under the radar.
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Top Hitter Prospects
Statistical highlights:
- Hit by pitch: 1. Thomas Gavello 21, 2. Ripken Reyes 19, 3. Blake Dunn 17, 4. Jorbit Vivas 14, 5. Robbie Tenerowicz 13.
- Highest fly ball rate (min. 100 PA): 1. Cristian Santana 71.8%, 2. Pete Crow-Armstrong 57.7%, 3. Allan Cerda 56.9%, 4. Jorge Bonifacio 56.2%.
Hitter Prospect Outlooks: Fantasy Six-Pack
Zach Kokoska, 1B/OF, Colorado Rockies
The Rockies drafted the lefty-swinging outfielder from Kansas State in the 10th round in 2021. He's slowly moved up the Rockies' system his first two seasons as a pro, spending all of his time patrolling the outfield while offering a balanced offensive approach.
This season, the Rockies moved Kokoska to first base nearly full-time (42 of his 44 games have been at first), and he's seen a tick up in his offensive production across the board, slashing .338/.445/.636 with Spokane, powering out 12 doubles and 11 home runs while also stealing 13 bases in 15 attempts.
While he's 1.5 years older than others at the High-A level at 24, Kokoska has taken a big step forward in his plate discipline in 2023, walking at a 13.2% rate and cutting his strikeouts to 20.9%.
VERDICT: Kokoska barely played in college before being plucked by the Rockies. There's a notable ability to control the strike zone, but he's at a position that requires a high level of offensive output to be relevant. I'd watch how he responds when he eventually gets to Double-A, likely later this year, before pulling the trigger on an add.
Carter Howell, OF, San Francisco Giants
An undrafted free agent signed by the Giants out of Augustana (SD) University, Howell made a big splash on the complex last year, hitting .310/.412/.379 while playing a strong center field. The Giants have played Howell across A-ball levels this season, where he's primarily played center field, but he's also been getting run at both corners, where his strong arm plays well and good jumps allow him to be an above-average fielder at any outfield position.
Though he was 2.6 years older than the average California League player to start the year and 1.5 years older than the average Northwest League player, he's nonetheless put up impressive offensive numbers, hitting .326/.389/.480 with 10 doubles, six triples, four home runs, and 10 stolen bases while averaging a run scored each game.
VERDICT: Howell is most likely going to max out as a fourth outfielder type, so there's no hurry to add him, but his 99% outcome is a guy who fills up a lot of categories while not being a league leader type, with his absolute top-end offensive profile being someone like Randy Winn. For now, he's a name to put in the "watch and see" bin.
Austin Shenton, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays
The Mariners originally drafted Shenton in the fifth round of the 2019 draft out of Florida International University. In July 2019, Shenton and reliever JT Chargois were dealt to the Rays in exchange for reliever Diego Castillo.
Shenton had an impressive 2021, hitting .295/.398/.549 across three minor league teams, finishing the year with Double-A Montgomery. The issue is that he's remained with Montgomery ever since, now more than a year older than the average player in the Southern League.
The infielder struggled to make impact contact and to remain healthy in 2022, but he's fully healthy and hitting very well this season, with 28 extra-base hits and a .970 OPS over the exact same amount of games and plate appearances already as he totaled in 2022. After splitting time nearly even between first and third base in 2022, Shenton is back to the hot corner full-time now that he's fully healthy.
VERDICT: Shenton has experience around the infield and in the outfield during his minor league career, and he has hit well even with the tackified ball this season in the Southern League. He's the type of guy that Tampa will bring up and use all over the field, maximizing his platoon splits. For now, he's a watch-only play, but keep a close eye on him if he were to move to Triple-A.
Cody Thomas, OF, Oakland Athletics
Thomas finally got to the majors in 2022 with Oakland after a minor league journey that began as a 13th-round selection of the Dodgers out of Oklahoma. The 6'4" lefty is back in Triple-A in 2023, where he's more than a year older than the average Pacific Coast League player at 28.
Thomas has legit power, with 32 extra-base hits in 57 games, but he's also shown a significantly better strikeout rate this season, which has been an issue in the past for him. He's currently sporting a 16.1% strikeout rate, down more than 10% from the best rate he's ever posted in the minors over a full season.
The Dodgers moved Thomas to Oakland via trade in the 2020-2021 offseason because he was among a large number of similar players in their system, but he's now run into a similar issue in Oakland.
VERDICT: Thomas is likely going to get plenty of run in the second half of the season once the A's trade away a host of players at the deadline. If he can control his swing-and-miss rate the way he has this year, he could definitely help fantasy teams in the second half.
Rangel Ravelo, 1B, San Diego Padres
After being drafted in the sixth round of the 2010 draft out of a Florida high school by the Chicago White Sox, Ravelo began a journey that led him across four major league organizations before deciding to ply his trade in Japan in 2021. The Padres signed Ravelo after two years in NPB, and he's now working to make it back to the majors, where he spent 42 combined games between 2019 and 2020 with the Cardinals. His long journey has him more than four years older than the average player in the PCL, at 31 years old.
Ravelo is not going to crush baseballs, and as a first baseman defensively, that could be an issue to his long-term future, but he has walked more than he's struck out this season and is slashing .301/.416/.427 in Triple-A.
VERDICT: The lack of power will doom Ravelo to a life as a Quad-A type – excellent minor league numbers that simply don't translate to a major league viable player. He is a fun story and a good guy to cheer for, though.
Elier Hernandez, OF, Texas Rangers
Originally signed by the Royals out of the Dominican in 2011, Hernandez made his debut straight into short-season A-ball in 2012 at 17 years old. He had a bit of hype around him after he hit .301 for that same Pioneer League team the next season, ranking among the top prospects in the Royals system at the time.
However, Hernandez struggled to make contact as he reached full-season ball, and the Rangers signed him as a minor league free agent before the 2021 season. The Rangers spent much of 2022 overhauling Hernandez's swing and refining his batting eye.
Thus far the results have been positive, as Hernandez posted a career-low strikeout rate in 2022 and earned a late-season promotion to the majors. He's hitting even better in 2023 while posting the best walk rate of his career. He is more than a year older than the average PCL player at 28, but the improvements are notable.
VERDICT: While the Texas offense would be a great one to work into, and Hernandez has made significant improvements, fantasy owners shouldn't jump too fast. He's likely not going to tally a lot of HR/SB stats, and it's unlikely that he gets enough playing time to make his R/RBI totals playable in fantasy. Watch from afar but like Ravelo, a good story if he can latch on and help out the big club.
Top Pitcher Prospects
Statistical highlights:
- Highest swinging strike rate (min. 30 IP): 1. Eury Perez 21.2%, 2. Cade Horton 20.8%, 3. Kyle Hurt 20.6%, 4. Emmet Sheehan 19.7%, 5. Prelander Berroa 19.5%.
- Wins: 1. Cody Bradford 8, 2 (tie). Anthony Veneziano, Shane Drohan, Emerson Hancock 7.
Pitcher Prospect Outlooks: Fantasy Six-Pack
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr, RP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Ortiz-Mayr represents a large contingent of the names that we'll discuss for older pitchers having success – arms that were unheralded when signed/drafted that profile primarily in relief. The Dodgers signed the 6'3" Puerto Rican as an undrafted free agent out of Troy in 2021. He spent multiple months on the injured list last summer but didn't exactly awe when he was on the hill, posting a 6.79 ERA and 1.57 WHIP over 61 innings, though he did strike out 81.
The righty has excellent sinking stuff, and he's leaned harder into that in 2023, posting a 2.29 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over 39 1/3 innings, primarily out of the bullpen, for Great Lakes in the Midwest League. Nearly two years older than the average Midwest League player, Ortiz-Mayr is hoping to end up in the bullpen behind the dominant Tulsa rotation in the Dodgers system later this season.
VERDICT: Ortiz-Mayr leaned hard into his sinking repertoire, which has hurt his strikeout rate, but it's led to one of the highest groundball rates in the minors. There could be a future role in a bullpen for that, but it's not likely to be valuable for fantasy owners.
Andy Fisher, RP, Cincinnati Reds
Originally signed as an undrafted free agent out of Illinois by the Reds in 2019, Fisher was a college lefty with the stuff you'd expect from one, not an elite fastball, excellent secondary stuff, and poise on the mound. That profile tends to play well in lower levels, and Fisher moved to a long-man role in the bullpen and had significant success in A-ball. However, 2022 saw Fisher move to Double-A, and with the move came a notable uptick in walks, leading to a 1.71 WHIP over 44 innings.
This season, Fisher is 27, 2.6 years older than the average Southern League player, and he's finding more consistency in his offerings using the tackified ball. That's led to a 2.38 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over 22 2/3 innings.
VERDICT: Fisher's stuff really doesn't belong at the back of a bullpen nor in a rotation, but he could work a role akin to Jesse Chavez for the right club as long as his stuff continues to progress. No reason to add at this time.
Tanner Banks, RP, Chicago White Sox
An 18th-round pick out of Utah in 2014 by the White Sox, the lefty Banks made progress as a starter through the White Sox system, step by step. However, in 2019, Chicago saw the writing on the wall and moved the crafty lefty to a swingman role.
After the pandemic season, Banks has now pitched the last three years with Triple-A Charlotte, where the 31-year-old is 3.7 years older than the average International League player this season. Banks has worked as a multi-inning reliever, and improved control has allowed him to post strong numbers in 2023.
Overall, he's tossed 23 innings in 13 games, with a 3.13 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, but an impressive 30/3 K/BB rate. The performance earned Banks four MLB appearances earlier in the season with Chicago, and he's just been promoted back again.
VERDICT: No reason to jump on Banks as he's likely going to be a low-velocity reliever type, but he did post a 3.06 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over 53 major league innings in 2022, so don't refuse to believe if he shows success again this year.
Erik Martinez, RP, Los Angeles Angels
After a strong career out of the bullpen with Cal-Berkeley, Martinez went undrafted in 2018. He spent the next four seasons playing independent ball and in the Mexican League before the Angels signed him this offseason. So far, Martinez has posted a 1.99 ERA combined between Single-A and High-A this season, with a 37/7 K/BB rate over 22 2/3 innings. At 27, he was five years older than fellow Cal League players and nearly four years older than his Northwest League compatriots.
Martinez has worked with a fastball/slider combination out of the bullpen so far, touching 97 with the heater and pairing it with a definite plus slider. The biggest question is how his stuff will play once he gets to the upper minors.
VERDICT: While not on the major league radar right now, this is looking like a "find" for the Angels scouting team. If he can pass upper minor tests this year, he could compete for a spot in a wide-open Angels bullpen in 2024.
Austin Krob, SP, San Diego Padres
The Padres drafted Krob out of Texas Christian University in the 12th round last summer. He had posted a 5.12 ERA in his final year with TCU, hurting his draft status. His pro debut didn't help his standing, as he allowed five runs in 4 1/3 innings.
This season has been a different story so far. The lefty has worked 41 innings for Lake Elsinore in the Cal League, where he's more than a year older than the average player. In that time, he's posted a 1.54 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and posted a 50/17 BB/K.
Krob uses a lower arm slot to help his low-90s fastball and wicked mid-80s slider play up, though he can go through stretches where he struggles to locate.
VERDICT: Krob's stuff from the left side should have him on the radar, though he very well could be a guy that the Padres build up and ship off in a deal to help the big club. No real need to stash at this time, but keep an eye on him going forward.
Thomas Pannone, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
After being selected by Cleveland in the ninth round of the 2013 draft, Pannone was traded along with Samad Taylor to Toronto for Joe Smith in a trade deadline deal in 2017. Pannone earned his way to a major league debut in 2018 with the Jays and pitched 73 innings as a swingman in 2019, sporting a 6.16 ERA.
He was a free agent after the pandemic year and settled on a minor league deal with the Angels, but after posting a 7.07 ERA in 2021 and struggling again in 2022 with the Red Sox in Triple-A, Pannone went to Korea where he made 14 starts with very solid numbers.
That earned him a minor league deal with the Milwaukee Brewers this season, and he's made the most of it, posting a 3.24 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over 41 2/3 innings with a 37/10 K/BB rate.
VERDICT: Pannone leans heavily on his cutter now, working his curve, change, and 4-seam fastball off the pitch. He rarely touches 90 MPH, but his ability to locate a diverse group of pitches could allow Pannone to have some success as a multi-inning relief option from the left side if the Brewers give him the call.
Check back again next week for more evaluations and look behind the numbers!
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