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Super Bowl Sunday is finally upon us, and the matchup could not be more exciting as two NFL juggernauts will battle it out for the Lombardi Trophy. While the balanced Philadelphia Eagles are currently favored to win in a closely-fought contest, you can never rule out the offensive powerhouse that is the Kansas City Chiefs.
Even if you don't have a dog in the fight, there are still plenty of ways to get in on the action. Our friends at No House Advantage are offering 16-player prop Pick 'Em contests that will place you against other players for your chance to win cash from prize pools worth as much as $50,000! There are both small and large-field tournaments for the big game with entry fees ranging from $5-$350.
Additionally, No House Advantage is offering a VS. THE HOUSE contest to win up to 21x your money if your prop picks are correct. As a special for the Super Bowl, they are even giving away a "free square" on VS. THE HOUSE entries with Patrick Mahomes' passing yardage prop line set at 1,000.5 yards.
We'll get into some of my favorite props for Sunday's Pick 'Em contests, but we'll first review how to play for those that are new to No House Advantage.
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How to Play on No House Advantage
The first step is to sign up for an account with code BALLER and claim your free deposit match (and RotoBaller Premium Pass). Then choose your DFS player props contest. Whether or not you want to play against a larger or smaller field is entirely up to you, as is the entry fee you wish to pay. Then, you select 10 player props you like, deciding to bet the over or the under, and ranking them in order of confidence.
For example, if you think A.J. Brown will show out under the brightest lights, you would select the over on Brown's 75.5 receiving yards prop as your 10-point selection. Note that it is still possible to win some cash with an incorrect choice or two, but the number of points your misses cost you will be critical.
Once the Super Bowl is wrapped up, total points will be calculated for all entries in the contest and winnings will be distributed to the top performers. Contests like this make No House Advantage an extremely unique and fun DFS site, and we’re here to give you some ideas for your Sunday slate picks.
Higher Confidence Picks - Super Bowl Sunday
Kenneth Gainwell over 19.5 rushing yards
This will surely be a popular player prop to bet on this weekend as Gainwell has soared over this line in three straight contests. I refuse to go against the grain in this scenario as I believe the second-year back has carved out a role for himself in the Eagles' offense.
An argument against Gainwell could be that both of Philadelphia's playoff matchups have turned into blowouts, clearing the way for more rushing attempts and less reliance on Jalen Hurts. In both games, however, Gainwell surpassed 20 rushing yards in the first half before the Eagles were simply looking to run out the clock.
Miles Sanders will get the start and is likely to lead the way in the Eagles' backfield early on, but Gainwell has looked good in his opportunities and should be able to find success against a Chiefs defense that has allowed at least two players to eclipse 20 rushing yards in each postseason bout.
This should be a close game, but Gainwell has proven that he can get this done with just a handful of carries. Philadelphia has run the ball at one of the highest rates in the league this season and has recently shown a willingness to rotate Gainwell in early on.
Dallas Goedert over 4.5 receptions
Dallas Goedert became an incredibly reliable target for Jalen Hurts this season and has been especially solid in the Eagles' playoff run. The 28-year-old hauled in five passes in each of Philadelphia's postseason contests, which as previously mentioned, were blowouts.
Goedert was heavily targeted in the first half of both of these blowouts, and assuming we get a far more competitive game on Sunday, he should continue to see utilization deep into the third and fourth quarters. The Chiefs' defense was solid against opposing tight ends in the regular season but allowed five receptions to Evan Engram in the Divisional Round and four receptions to Hayden Hurst in the AFC Championship.
Although Philadelphia undoubtedly boasts one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, Kansas City's pass rush should not be ignored. The Chiefs finished second in the regular season in sacks and sacked Joe Burrow five times two weeks ago. If Hurts is facing pressure, he may be forced to make quick decisions and throw underneath to Goedert rather than airing it out deep to A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.
I also like Goedert's receiving yardage prop at 48.5 yards, but I slightly prefer betting on volume. I think Goedert sees a lot of it on Sunday and easily clears five receptions.
Jerick McKinnon under 24.5 rushing yards
If you played fantasy football this year, you may have won your league after adding Jerick McKinnon off of waivers. McKinnon was a rockstar from Weeks 13-18, finding the endzone in all six contests.
The vast majority of McKinnon's production, however, came via his usage in the passing game rather than on the ground. He surpassed 24.5 rushing yards just four total times throughout the regular season and postseason to this point. He finished with exactly 25 yards on 11 attempts against the Jacksonville Jaguars in the Divisional Round. In the AFC Championship, he was hardly a factor, handling just four carries for one yard.
To make matters worse, McKinnon played on just 39 percent of offensive snaps against the Cincinnati Bengals as rookie Isiah Pacheco saw a surprising uptick in receiving usage. It's unclear if Pacheco will continue to operate in this role, but McKinnon will have a difficult time reaching this line if he sees the field sparingly.
I can't imagine he makes much of an impact, but it's worth mentioning that Clyde Edwards-Helaire was activated from Injured Reserve earlier this week and is set to suit up for the Super Bowl. This is obviously bad news for McKinnon unless CEH rides the bench for the entirety of the game. If he receives any touches, McKinnon's light workload will be even lighter.
His line on other sportsbooks is around 19.5 rushing yards, so we're even getting a bit of an edge by taking the under here.
Lower Confidence Picks - Super Bowl Sunday
Patrick Mahomes over 292.5 passing yards
Sure, this is a high line, and we're not getting much of an advantage here as this is pretty close to Mahomes' passing yardage prop on other popular sportsbooks. We're talking about Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl, though. I like his chances to throw for upwards of 300 yards in any competitive game.
The now two-time league MVP fell well short of this line while hobbled against the Jaguars in the Divisional Round, but totaled 326 passing yards against the Bengals in the Conference Championship. He did this with almost the entirety of the team's wide receiver corps banged up either heading into or during the contest. On Sunday, Mahomes will have JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kadarius Toney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore, and of course Travis Kelce all available to him.
There's no way around it, Philadelphia's defense has been dominant against the pass all season. Dak Prescott was the only quarterback to eclipse 300 yards against the Eagles this year. Daniel Jones, Josh Johnson, and Brock Purdy have combined for just 218 passing yards against them in the playoffs.
Of course, both of the Eagles' playoff contests so far have taken place at Lincoln Financial Stadium, where the team has surrendered under 160 passing yards per game. They have been slightly more vulnerable on the road, allowing over 186 passing yards per game. We'll have to see how Philadelphia fares in a neutral environment against arguably the best quarterback in the league.
The Eagles will enter Sunday as 1.5-point favorites over the Chiefs, marking the first time in which Mahomes is not favored in a playoff game. In his career, Mahomes holds a 6-3 record when Kansas City is considered the underdog. In five of those nine contests, he surpassed 300 passing yards, even going over 350 in three of them.
A.J. Brown over 75.5 receiving yards
I was hurt betting on A.J. Brown on Conference Championship Sunday, but I'm going right back to him with the Super Bowl on the line.
Brown was frustrated with his lack of targets back in the NFC title game, and although he saw eight of them against the 49ers, he wasn't asked to do much as the Eagles held a 21-7 lead going into halftime. He was also overthrown by Hurts in the first quarter on what was sure to be a 70-yard touchdown had he hit Brown in stride.
Assuming this contest stays close, Philadelphia will need to depend on Brown more than it has so far in the postseason. Fortunately, this is an excellent matchup to do so. The Chiefs allowed 10 wide receivers to hit this line in the regular season and surrendered at least 76 yards to a wideout in each of their two playoff games.
As I mentioned earlier, Kansas City does have a solid defensive front that could cause some problems for Hurts, but we don't necessarily need Brown to be force-fed the ball to surpass 76 yards. Since the start of his professional career, Brown has been one of the most efficient receivers in the NFL and finished third in yards per reception this season.
Hopefully, the extra week of rest proves beneficial to Hurts' injured throwing shoulder and the two connect on a deep ball to make up for the missed opportunity two weeks ago.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling under 42.5 receiving yards
Another player that has shown up previously in my picks this postseason, Marquez Valdes-Scantling went off for six receptions, 116 yards, and a touchdown in the AFC Championship. Of course, I highlighted the under on his 30.5 receiving yards prop as one of my lower-confidence selections and was burned in the process.
How could I have predicted, though, that JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kadarius Toney, and Mecole Hardman would all sustain injuries or re-aggravate existing ones during the contest? Mahomes had no choice but to look Valdes-Scantling's way at that point. To give credit where it's due, he stepped up in a big way, but with the Chiefs' receiver room nearly at full strength, I expect him to take a backseat again.
Before his outburst, MVS had not surpassed 30 receiving yards in a game since Week 13, yet his line has gone up by 12 yards for the Super Bowl. I'm not buying it as this prop is coming in a bit lower at 35.5 yards elsewhere.
Super Bowl Sunday Picks - Sample Pick 'Em Entry
Below is a sample Pick 'Em entry for Super Bowl Sunday on No House Advantage. Hopefully, this will give you some helpful insight.
You can enter NFL Pick 'Em contests now on No House Advantage as well. Be sure to use code BALLER when signing up for your free $50 deposit match, and a free RotoBaller Premium Pass!
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