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Our Ben Rosener takes a look at what Cueto to Cincinnati and Sean Murphy to Atlanta could do for their fantasy outlooks in the upcoming season.
Even though the Winter Meetings are now behind us, there’s still plenty of offseason left when it comes to baseball news and rumors – especially with a number of the offseason’s top free agents still without a team. And that’s all without mentioning potential trades as there hasn’t been an overabundance of deals made so far. The reports and rumors of free agent interest and trade interest, combined with actual free agent signings and trades, will continue to have significant ramifications for fantasy managers ahead of drafts next spring
The aim of this column is to provide you with the latest fantasy analysis on both rumors and reports, as well as official signings and trades, and how it pertains to redraft fantasy baseball leagues next spring. Moves, or rumors and reports, tabbed as “Buying” are obviously good moves or potentially good moves from a fantasy standpoint. Moves or potential moves and reported interest that are filed under “Selling?” Not so great.
So, without further ado, let’s dive into the news with some reported interest from a National League Central club and marquee addition by the defending National League East champions.
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(Potentially) Selling For Fantasy Baseball
The Reds' Reported Interest in Johnny Cueto
According to a tweet from MLB Network’s Jon Morosi on Thursday morning, the Cincinnati Reds are reportedly interested in free-agent starter Johnny Cueto. Morosi tweeted the following:
“Source: #Reds have expressed interest in a reunion with Johnny Cueto, a free agent after pitching 158 1/3 innings this year. Cueto, who turns 37 in February, made his @MLB debut with Cincinnati in 2008. @MLBNetwork.”
From a real-life baseball standpoint, Cueto makes a lot of sense, speculatively speaking, as a veteran addition to a young rotation that also features Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, and Graham Ashcraft. Someone who can soak up innings alongside the trio.
From a fantasy baseball standpoint, however, it’s not an ideal fit. Like...at all. Great American Ballpark is the definition of “hitter-friendly,” with the league’s second-highest Park Factor for runs scored in the last three years per Statcast.
The ballpark in part limits the fantasy ceiling of promising young hurlers like Greene, Lodolo, and Ashcraft, but it would all but relegate Cueto to being a fantasy option primarily in deeper leagues despite coming off a solid 2022 season in which he posted a 3.35 ERA and a 3.79 FIP in 158.1 innings for the Chicago White Sox.
Because while bat-missing starters like Greene and Lodolo might mitigate Great American Ballpark’s hitter-friendly nature to a degree, a pitcher with lower strikeout rates like Cueto might not be the best fit.
Of course, Cueto has found success in Cincinnati before with strikeout rates that weren’t exactly gaudy. The problem is that he logged the second-lowest swinging strike percentage of his career at 7.7% and had the second-lowest strikeout-per-nine inning rate (5.80) among starters who threw at least 150 innings last year. That number was a career-low for the veteran. He’s also switched his pitch arsenal up as of late to feature a sinker more in place of a four-seamer. In short, he’s giving up plenty of contact, and likely will continue to if the sinker remains prominently featured.
While he did a quality job limiting walks in 2022, potentially giving up a bunch of contact at Great American Ballpark just isn’t a recipe for hypothetical fantasy success. Cueto, speculatively speaking and at least fantasy-wise makes more sense in a pitcher-friendly park next season.
Buying For Fantasy Baseball:
Sean Murphy Going To Atlanta
Murphy’s fantasy ceiling will likely still be limited to a degree with Travis d’Arnaud still around in Atlanta– of course, a trade of d’Arnaud could certainly change that – but there’s plenty to like from a fantasy standpoint here.
The most obvious is that Murphy goes from an Oakland team that scored 568 runs to one that plated over 200 more runs – 789 to be exact. Going from baseball’s second-lowest scoring offense to the sport’s third-highest scoring offense certainly helps where RBI and runs scored opportunities are concerned.
Murphy mostly hit third and four for the A’s last year. And while he won’t quite hit that high in the lineup for Atlanta, the lineup could look significantly different for the National League East franchise in 2023.
With Dansby Swanson still a free agent, William Contreras in Milwaukee, Ozzie Albies coming off an injury-shortened down year, and Vaughn Grissom still establishing himself in the Majors, Murphy could find himself hitting behind some combination of Ronald Acuna Jr., Michael Harris II, Austin Riley, and Matt Olson on a regular basis when he starts.
There are few better potential fantasy environments for catchers than the one Murphy is walking into, especially for a player who finished the 2022 season with an xwOBA north of .340 for the third time in four seasons.
For now, he’s a top-10 option at the position but could possess top-five upside if d’Arnaud is dealt anytime between now and the trade deadline this summer.
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