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Welcome back, RotoBallers! I hope your weekend has gone well so far. After a high-scoring Chiefs/Chargers showdown last week, we have what will likely be a lower-scoring affair tonight as the Green Bay Packers (4-7) head to the City of Brotherly Love to take on the Philadelphia Eagles (9-1). Both of these teams had games against AFC South opponents go down to the wire last week, as it took a late game-winning drive for the Eagles to knock off the Colts, while the Packers fell just short against the Titans on Thursday Night Football. Let's take a look at how this slate breaks down.
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Packers vs. Eagles NFL DFS showdown slate on November 27th. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Jalen Hurts - QB, $17,400 (DK), $17,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 2,407 passing yards, 15 touchdowns, three interceptions, 110 rushing attempts, 440 rushing yards, and eight rushing touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 28.3% (sixth), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -0.7% (12th), per Football Outsiders.
I'll start things off where I seemingly do with every Eagles showdown slate, with Jalen Hurts. Following Dallas Goedert's shoulder injury two weeks ago against Washington, we saw a bit of a different game from Hurts last Sunday. Hurts ran 16 times for 86 yards including the game-winning touchdown in Indianapolis. I think that Hurts and the Eagles made it a point this season to show teams that they can beat them with the passing game, but without Goedert and against Green Bay's bottom-tier rushing defense, I think Hurts gets it done more with his wheels this evening.
Aaron Jones - RB, $15,600 (DK), $13,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 143 rushing attempts, 778 rushing yards, 49 targets, 40 receptions, 248 receiving yards, and five touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: 5.7% (fifth), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: 2.3% (26th), per Football Outsiders.
On the other side of the field, we'll take a look at Green Bay's running back, Aaron Jones. Following Philadelphia's Monday Night Football loss to Washington where it seemed like the Commanders ran all over them, Indianapolis came out last Sunday with Jonathan Taylor on the first drive and looked like they would do the same exact thing. However, the additions of Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph proved to be key as the Eagles' defense adjusted. With that said, I think the Packers now have a week of tape on Suh and Joseph, as well as another week of tape on the Eagles' defense, and my thought is they get a bit more dynamic in the backfield as well as using Jones in the passing game where they have a projected DVOA of 2.84%.
Other Captains/MVPs: Aaron Rodgers, Miles Sanders, A.J. Brown
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DFS Flex Plays
Aaron Rodgers - QB, $10,000 (DK), $15,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 2,452 passing yards, 19 passing touchdowns, and seven interceptions.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 13% (16th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2021 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -22.7% (third), per Football Outsiders.
I'll take a look at Aaron Rodgers on the Packers' side of things as well. Rodgers has a great history against the Eagles, tossing 1,559 yards and 12 touchdowns to just three interceptions in five starts against Philadelphia. While this Philadelphia defense is much better than (probably) any of the Philly defensive units he's faced in the past, I think Rodgers is smart enough to be able to maneuver around in the pocket and get all of his pass-catchers involved to move the ball down the field while picking on some of the minor holes Philly has due to injuries.
Miles Sanders - RB, $8,800 (DK), $13,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 156 rushing attempts, 757 rushing yards, 15 targets, 12 receptions, 43 receiving yards, and six touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: 10.2% (second), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: 6.7% (29th), per Football Outsiders.
Back to the Eagles here as we take a look at Miles Sanders. I'm not really overthinking this one. Sanders didn't have a great game in Indy last Sunday, running for just 47 yards on 13 carries. With that said, the Indianapolis rushing defense is much better than Green Bay's (for reference, the Colts' defense ranks sixth in the league, while the Packers' defense ranks 29th). There is a chance that Green Bay sells out to stop Sanders in the running game while leaving A.J. Brown in single coverage with Jaire Alexander and Rasul Douglas, so I will have some Brown in this spot (and the 1.5x spots) as well, but will slightly opt for Sanders due to his cheaper price on both sites.
Other Flex Options: A.J. Brown, Christian Watson
DFS Value Plays
Randall Cobb - WR, $5,200 (DK), $8,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 32 targets, 24 receptions, and 330 yards.
- Individual Matchup (vs Josiah Scott): 16% target rate, 71% catch rate, 0.32 fantasy points per route covered, per PFF.
In terms of value plays, I'll take a look at Randall Cobb here. Cobb is, without a doubt, the most reliable receiver that Aaron Rodgers has, despite Christian Watson clearly making a case over the last few weeks. With that said, though, Cobb has a much better matchup than Watson does on Sunday, lining up against Josiah Scott while Watson has to deal with Darius Slay and James Bradberry all night.
AJ Dillon - RB, $4,800 (DK), $10,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 117 rushing attempts, 467 rushing yards, 25 targets, 17 receptions, 109 receiving yards, and one touchdown.
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: 5.7% (fifth), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: 2.3% (26th), per Football Outsiders.
Last but not least, I'll take a look at AJ Dillon as my second value play. I'll note that this is certainly a DraftKings-specific play, as he is just far too cheap there, while FanDuel seems to have him overpriced. Regardless, I could say the same thing about Dillon as I said with Aaron Jones, outside of him potentially getting work in the passing game. Should the Eagles break down once again between the tackles, I won't be surprised if Dillon breaks through the front seven and powers through an Eagles defense that has been absolutely abysmal as far as tackling goes on the season. He's a great pick for anytime touchdown scorer at +250 on FanDuel Sportsbook :).
Other Value Plays: Eagles D/ST, Jack Stoll, Quez Watkins, Zach Pascal, Jake Elliott
Enjoy your weekend and good luck everyone!
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