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Joe Nicely's under-the-radar DraftKings, FanDuel PGA DFS picks for the 2022 Rocket Mortgage Classic. His Horse for the course for daily fantasy golf is based on course history.
Hello PGA DFS family and welcome back to Horse For The Course! It is always fun when this article's "Horse" gets a victory and that's exactly what happened last week in Minnesota, as Tony Finau blitzed the back nine for a win at the 3M Open! It marked Finau's third career victory on the PGA Tour and his arrow continues to point up as the season winds down.
This week we head to Detroit for another event that's fairly new to the PGA Tour schedule...the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Let's dive in!
Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our excellent PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!
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2022 Rocket Mortgage Classic Overview
We hop from the relatively-new 3M Open to the relatively-new Rocket Mortgage Classic, which is set to be played for the fourth time this week. Based in Detroit, the event will once again be played at Detroit Golf Club and utilize a combination of two Donald Ross-designed courses.
Over those three previous editions, the Rocket Mortgage has produced a rather eclectic group of winners that includes journeyman Nate Lashley, bomber Bryson DeChambeau, and the talented Cam Davis last year.
We can draw from those winners, as well as the players that have been in contention in this event, that there isn't one unique skill set that fits the bill on this classic-style layout. Both bombers and shorter hitters must be considered this week, with the common thread being the absolute need to make plenty of birdies.
After a pretty pathetic turnout for last week's 3M Open, this week's entrant list is a little spiffier, with 3M winner Tony Finau set to be flanked by the likes of Patrick Cantlay, Will Zalatoris, Max Homa, and defending Rocket Mortgage champ Cam Davis. While three years is a rather small sample size, let's dive into some course history DFS plays for this week's event!
You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
The Course: Detroit Golf Club
Par 72 - 7,370 Yards, Greens: Poa/Bent, Designed By: Donald Ross
Before its PGA Tour debut a few years ago, we were all basically guessing as to how this layout by legendary architect Donald Ross would play. The answer is...pretty darn easy, as the pros basically have no trouble at all with Detroit Golf Club, with the first three editions of the Rocket Mortgage producing an average winning score of 22-under par.
It might not be fair to call this layout "cookie-cutter", but that's the impression that I've walked away with after each edition of the Rocket Mortgage Classic, as the event is the definition of a straightforward birdie fest.
There are no secrets at DGC (other than a couple of sneaky OB areas)...score on the four Par-5s, strike your irons well, and make putts. As a result, I'll be targeting players this week that have strong approach games, great Par-5 scoring ability, and can rack up birdies in bunches.
I never give much weight to putting stats, but I will at least glance at some Poa numbers this week, as players will need to make some putts to go low and these greens are comprised of a Poa/Bent surface.
I always recommend checking out RotoBaller's PGA Premium Course Breakdown by Josh Bennett for an in-depth breakdown of this week's golf course!
Recent Rocket Mortgage Classic Winners & Scores
- 2021: Cameron Davis (-18)
- 2020: Bryson DeChambeau (-23)
- 2019: Nate Lashley (-25)
The Horse
Kevin Kisner
- Event Scoring Average: 68.50
- Notable Event Finishes: T8 (2021), 3rd ('20), T46 ('19)
- DraftKings Price: $9,100 FanDuel Price: $10,700
Top-five finishes at the Sony Open and Players Championship aside, 2022 has been a rather forgettable year for the Kiz. However, the veteran's game has been trending up recently as he heads into a spot on the schedule where he's traditionally thrived.
Kisner comes into the week on the heels of strong outings in both the Open Championship (T21) and Travelers (T6). He's now gained a combined 15.8 strokes total over his last two starts.
That recent form puts him squarely on my DFS radar when also considering his elite track record in the Rocket Mortgage, an event where the South Carolina native has amassed a 68.50 career scoring average.
Kiz has teed it up in every edition of this tournament and has performed well on the Donald Ross layout, a course which is a fairly direct comp to Ross' Sedgefield Country Club design that the veteran won on last year.
The Ponies
Max Homa
- Event Scoring Average: 69.38
- Notable Event Finishes: T25 ('21), T42 ('19)
- DraftKings Price: $9,900 FanDuel Price: $11,500
Course history is spotty at best among this week's "spend-up" options. Max Homa's Rocket Mortgage record is solid, if unspectacular, but his 69.38 scoring average does lead the way for those at the top of DFS salary scales on this slate.
A T25 in last year's edition is encouraging and I think it's fair to say that Homa's game has continued to trend upward in 2022. The Californian has posted two victories since last year's Rocket Mortgage and has become - a missed cut at the Open aside - one of the PGA Tour's most consistent performers, as his early exit at St. Andrews marked his first missed cut since January.
Homa grades out fifth among this week's entrants in both SG: T2G & SG: Approach over his last 24 rounds, while his rank of sixth in DK Points scored indicates he's a proven DFS producer.
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Chris Kirk
- Event Scoring Average: 68.63
- Notable Event Finishes: T12 ('21), T21 ('20)
- DraftKings Price: $7,800 FanDuel Price: $10,000
The veteran heads to Motown in the midst of a fine season. Kirk has scored four top-10 finishes this calendar year with the most recent one coming at the RBC Canadian Open last month.
He's made the cut in each of his last four starts. The UGA product has been money in previous Rocket Mortgage starts with a T21 in 2020 followed by a T12 in last year's edition.
Kirk's success this year can be traced to his proficiency in all facets of the game - he ranks eighth in this week's field in SG: T2G over his last 24 rounds - and the rather simplistic notion of consistently hitting fairways (ninth in field Good Drives Gained) and greens (35th GIRs). With his sub-$8k price tag on DK, Kirk will be one of my favorite ways to save salary this week.
Troy Merritt
- Event Scoring Average: 68.70
- Notable Event Finishes: T2 ('21), T8 ('20), MC ('19)
- DraftKings Price: $7,600 FanDuel Price: $9,700
While many had Troy Merritt pegged as a top-value play in his hometown event last week, Merritt has actually performed better in the Rocket Mortgage than the 3M Open historically.
The 36-year-old has gained a combined 18.6 strokes total across his last two trips to Detroit Golf Club and accrued a sharp 68.70 scoring average across his three career Rocket Mortgage starts. A T49 last week in Minnesota might not appear to be anything to get excited about, but Merritt's ball-striking was crisp, as he gained seven strokes T2G and was hampered by an ice-cold putter.
At his $7.6k price point on DK, I'm willing to gamble on the putter coming around on this Ross layout where he's had so much success in recent years.
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