Breaking $100: PGA Betting Picks and Strategy - Charles Schwab Challenge

Justin Thomas managed to withstand the heat that melted away the competition around him on Sunday afternoon at the PGA Championship. Although Thomas missed THAT birdie putt, the one you practice and pretend is to win a major championship on the 72nd hole, he clutched up in the playoff against Will Zalatoris who is officially a major menace.

On a more macro scale, the tournament was defined by the wind that impacted those who teed off on Thursday afternoon and Friday morning much more than those that did the opposite. The majority of our plays were in that terrible wave split which left us with very little to look forward to from a betting perspective, so we just enjoyed the entertainment value of the chaos that ensued without much to sweat.

For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver", all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.

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Course Breakdown and Key Stats

Colonial Country Club, Par: 70, Yardage: 7,209, Greens: Bent, Designer: Perry Maxwell/John Bredemus

Colonial Country Club has been a staple venue on the PGA Tour for as long as most of us can remember. With a firm foothold on the schedule, the many years of data show us exactly what winners need to excel at here.

If golfers are unable to consistently keep their ball in the fairway, no matter how impressive the rest of their game is, they will have a terribly tough time scoring well. Once in the fairway, 71% of shots have historically taken place between 100 and 200 yards. Three of the four buckets that make up this hundred-yard range see approach activity that exceeds tour average. Putting makes another appearance in our model as the stats show that great putting performances tend to drag golfers up the leaderboard more than usual.

The scoring stat of choice this week will be bogey avoidance as tight fairways and smaller than average greens will require a steady style of play to avoid repeated disasters around Colonial CC. The numbers show that past results are more predictive of success at Colonial than tour average, making course history an essential metric. Something we are also keeping our eye on is finishing position at the PGA Championship last week, as a strong showing at a major can really catalyze a golfer's short-term confidence.

In summary, we are looking for players to excel in most of the below criteria:

• Model Rank
• SG APP L24
• Proximity 100-200
• Good Drives Gained
• SG: Putting on Bent L50
• Bogey avoidance
• Course History
• PGA Championship

Outrights

A very disappointing showing from our outrights last week leaves us licking our wind-stricken wounds heading into the Charles Schwab Challenge (CSC). We have a five diamonds in the mid-tier rough who are polished and prepared to win us a golf tournament. We also have three very long shots that have one or two traits we think can help them get the job done. We hit the mid-tier odds hard in hopes that we can catch a few of the favorites with a post-major hangover a few days after a grueling major in treacherous conditions.

Our betting strategy for outrights is rather conservative, requiring a winner once every eight events in order to break even. From a dollar standpoint, we are betting $13 of our $100 to net $110 or more.

Abraham Ancer ($3.08 @ +4000 on DK)

Mexico's maestro collected a T9 at the PGA last week and now heads to a golf course that fits his game perfectly. Abraham Ancer has gained strokes off the tee in all but two of his 13 starts this season, mainly as a result of his automatic accuracy with the big stick which leads the field in good drives gained. Unsurprisingly, he has finished T14 in both of his two most recent appearances at the CSC relying on his putter and driver to gain the majority of his strokes. This blueprint should be repeatable with Ancer's putter gaining +0.8 strokes per round over his most recent 24 and +0.6 strokes on Bent grass over the last 50, both ranking seventh in this field.

Although Ancer's approach play ranks 29th in the field, he finds himself ranking 14th in proximity from 100-200 yards, which is his wheelhouse when it comes to his irons. If he can carry over the confidence he gained on approach at last week's PGA, gaining just shy of five strokes on approach, he has all the tools to surgically navigate his way to victory at Colonial CC.

• Model Rank: 5
• SG APP L24: 73
• Proximity 100-200: 14
• Good Drives Gained: 1
• SG Putting on Bent L50: 7
• Bogey avoidance: 5
• Course History: T14, T14
• PGA Championship: T9

Webb Simpson ($2.55 @ +4800)

Webb Simpson's write up is basically a copy-paste of Ancer's with a few stats a little more impacted by poor play while injured. "Spider Webb" made the PGA cut on the number, gaining +2.5 strokes on approach over the course of the major with round-by-round splits of +2.33, -4.28, 4.58, and -0.01 which could be a numeric replacement for the dictionary definition of volatility. His proximity numbers are best inside 200 yards and gains on his drives with more accuracy than distance, a perfect tradeoff for success at Colonial CC.

When Webb has his spidey-senses firing on all cylinders he preys on shorter courses that require precision from tee to green and potent putting on a surface he ranks 21st on over the last 50 rounds. His last two trips around Colonial were missed cuts but his two starts prior were a 5th and T3 which is a promising track record at a course that sees a lot of the same names frequent the top of the leaderboard. Now that he is presumably healthy, we can expect him to be stingy on the bogey front while giving himself countless stress-free birdie opportunities on route to his first CSC win.

• Model Rank: 21
• SG APP L24: 60
• Proximity 100-200: 17
• Good Drives Gained: 18
• SG Putting on Bent L50: 21
• Bogey avoidance: 14
• Course History: MC, MC, 5th, T3
• PGA Championship: T20

Kevin Na ($2.23 @ +5500)

One of the most controversial players on the tour finds himself on our card because he is striking his irons exceptionally well recently and now heads to a putting surface that he excels on at a course that he has won at. Check, check, check! Na is really accurate from inside 200 yards and pairs that wheelhouse proximity range with iron play that is peaking. He is the 17th best putter on Bent grass and owns the best around the green rank over the last two years.

When Na plays poorly, he morphs into a bouncing betty of bogeys, losing -10 strokes in two rounds at the Arnold Palmer Invitational which can skew some of his more recent numbers. Even though he rattled off 10 bogeys in two rounds at the API he still ranks 25th in bogey avoidance. Na has won an event in each of his last four seasons and after a T23 at the PGA he has the skillset and form to continue that streak at Colonial with his second win at this venue.

• Model Rank: 10
• SG APP L24: 5
• Proximity 100-200: 16
• Good Drives Gained: 47
• SG Putting on Bent L50: 17
• Bogey avoidance: 25
• Course History: T32, MC, WIN, 4th
• PGA Championship: T23

 

Chris Kirk ($2.04 @ +6000)

Chris Kirk is made up of 174 pounds of draw-hitting, green-pounding melatonin. His golf game is sleep inducing and that is perfect for this course, winning here in 2015. In 14 starts this season Kirk has yet to lose strokes off the tee, while losing only minuscule amounts on approach in four of those starts. When Kirk hits an errant approach, he can lean on a brilliant set of hands that ranks third around the greens, resulting in a bogey avoidance rate that is bested by only Justin Thomas and Sungjae Im.

It is all sunshine and rainbows until we mention his putting stats, which is a pit of misery at times. Kirk has lost over three strokes putting before missing the cut four times this season. However, there is light at the end of the tunnel as Kirk gained strokes putting while finishing T5 at the PGA last weekend. If he can glom onto any putting confidence he may have uncovered on the Bent greens of Southern Hills, he has everything else needed to win here for the second time.

• Model Rank: 11
• SG APP L24: 18
• Proximity 100-200: 19
• Good Drives Gained: 25
• SG Putting on Bent L50: 62
• Bogey avoidance: 3
• Course History: T69, T60, T11, T67, T15.....WIN
• PGA Championship: T5

 

Justin Rose ($1.88 @ +6500)

Another former winner of this event who had an impressive T13 at the PGA is Justin Rose. Rose gained on approach at the PGA for the first time since January. It has been a long cut-filled road to get back to playing the weekend for the Englishman and a dash of form may have graced his game at just the right time. With no ball-striking stats to write home about, Rose now has a smidge of momentum heading back to an event that he has placed T20, T3, T58 in his three starts after his win in 2018.

When scrounging through his numbers, Rose putts really well on Bent grass and has fantastic proximity numbers inside 200 yards. He lost strokes off the tee on route to his T13 last week, which is a concern heading to a very tight golf course, but he has played well here in the past and who knows what inspiration he has found in the last few days of chaos down in Tulsa. If he can scrape his way around off the tee and roll in enough putts he could very well win this tournament again.

• Model Rank: 26
• SG APP L24: 69
• Proximity 100-200: 11
• Good Drives Gained: 45
• SG Putting on Bent L50: 12
• Bogey avoidance: 111 (woof)
• Course History: T20, T3, T58, WIN
• PGA Championship: T13

 

Nate Lashley ($1.22 @ +20000)

Nate Lashley has finished T30 or better in six of his last eight starts and has a 200-1 ticket slapped to his name. He has done the majority of his scoring with approach numbers that have been improving on his baseline over the last while. He lacks length off the tee but offsets that with accuracy, which, as we now know, is exactly what is needed here. His 21st ranked bogey avoidance is a byproduct of his steady ball striking which is another reason to be optimistic about his game. Nate is capable of getting hot with his putter sporadically which is all we can ask for from a very long shot.

• Model Rank: 46
• SG APP L24: 22
• Proximity 100-200: 72
• Good Drives Gained: 31
• SG Putting on Bent L50: 91
• Bogey avoidance: 21
• Course History: T32, MC, 69

Brian Stuard ($0.33 @ +37000)

Brian Stuard arrives at one of the few courses on tour that doesn't severely penalize him for bunting his way around the course with hyper accurate drives. Stuard has also shown signs of life on approach, gaining almost six strokes on approach at RBC while leaking strokes in all other categories to finish 69th. He finished T9 at the Honda Classic back in February which was also a shorter course. At least we know he can strike his irons well with hopes of his short game catching fire. It is worth noting that he has made six consecutive cuts at this event.

• Model Rank: 34
• SG APP L24: 28
• Proximity 100-200: 29
• Good Drives Gained: 2
• SG Putting on Bent L50: 52
• Bogey avoidance: 22
• Course History: T56, T43, T64, T32, T24

Adam Svensson ($0.31 @ +40000)

With finishes of T7 at the Sony, T9 at the Honda, and T26 at the RBC Heritage, Svensson has shown he is capable of playing better golf at shorter courses. He gained over 3.5 strokes on approach at all three of those courses and drove the ball well in two of the three events, leaning on accuracy for most of his success. With nobody catching our attention at 100-1 we managed to fit three guys that we like, into $1.25 of budget. #Value

First-Round Leaders

>TheModelManiac enters in fetal position from secret trap door beneath stage. Whispers to the readers of Breaking $100 "It's going to be okay, I think..."<

Wow. We are now 0-11 on FRLs and those close misses we had early in the series are really starting to haunt us. BUT, back-to-back winners are just around the corner and we have to keep a positive outlook on this bet. It is one of the hardest bets to hit as a single round of golf is ridiculously volatile.

This week we have a smaller field of 120 golfers which gives a mathematically better chance to work some magic. From a dollar standpoint, we are betting a total of $12.55 on five guys to net $110 or more.

Justin Rose ($2.49 @ +5000)

He likes this golf course, putts brilliantly on Bent grass and may have just enough confidence spilling over from the PGA to get him into a Thursday lead.

Chris Kirk ($2.48 @ +5000)

When his putter is not behaving like a rebellious teenager he does his best work on the greens on Thursdays. The rest of his tee-to-green game has been well-documented as extremely solid and is always available to go low when his putter decides it wants to work.

Webb Simpson ($2.48 @ +5000)

In the ficticious world of Spider Webb, Breaking $100 has put its Mary Jane wig on while batting our tear drenched eye lashes and are now desperately waiting on our hero to swoop on in and save us from first round leader perils that have had us locked in the basement for 11 straight weeks. Help us Spidey!

Billy Horschel ($2.48 @ +5000)

Billy Horschel is remarkably accurate off the tee, hits his irons better from inside 200 yards, and does his best scoring on Thursday's.

Kevin Na ($2.07 @ +6000)

Kevin led after round one at the Sony earlier this year, a course that can be compared to Colonial in some respects, which gives us hope he can do it again this week.

 

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Placings

We have $75 remaining in the bank, of which we will be using $70 on five T20s and three T40s. Odds range from +140 to +320 so three of the eight guys we bet on need to cash to make a profit.

BetMGM will be our book of choice for most of these bets as their odds are the best and they pay ties in full. Our threshold to ditch BetMGM's ties paid in full for other books is 30 points (BetMGM +110 < DK +150, BetMGM +110 > DK +130)

Abraham Ancer (T20: $8.75 @ +150 on BetMGM, -115 on DK)

Paging Dr. Ancer for a T20 at +150. We love the course fit and we love that he hit his irons well last week.

Sungjae Im (T20: $8.75 @ +140 on BetMGM, +145 on FD)

After missing the PGA stuck in Korea with Covid, Sungjae makes an appearance on our placing card courtesy of his super steady ball striking. His proximity numbers and putting on bent are a little bit of a concern, but we are still comfortable he can take care of a top-20 by limiting bogeys, which he does better than anyone in the field. He has two missed cuts and a T10 at the CSC and has eight top-20s in 14 starts this season.

• Model Rank: 8
• SG APP L24: 45
• Proximity 100-200: 66
• Good Drives Gained: 5
• SG Putting on Bent L50: 90
• Bogey avoidance: 1
• Course History: MC, T10, MC

Kevin Na (T20: $8.75 @ +175 on BetMGM, +200 on Ceasars)

The model liked a Na top-20 because of his recent approach play, putting on bent and accuracy off the tee. He also heads to a course he has excelled at many times in the past.

Chris Kirk (T20: $8.75 @ +200 on DK, +165 on BetMGM)

Mr. Melatonin is tagged with a two-to-one T20 number at DK and we think his boring ball striking should help him land up towards the top of the leaderboard come Sunday.

Cameron Tringale (T20: $8.75 @ +320 on FD)

Deep breath...Cameron Tringale finished T41 last week, bogeying his final hole to dodge our +175 T40 ticket on him. We are going back to the well here though, as the model kicked out a T20 for him at +320. I contemplated dropping this bet to a T40 +125 as his driver can cause him issues sometimes, but +320 was far too tempting to pass up for someone who has a really impressive approach game and has shown he putts really well on Bent.

• Model Rank: 13
• SG APP L24: 19
• Proximity 100-200: 50
• Good Drives Gained: 46
• SG Putting on Bent L50: 5
• Bogey avoidance: 6
• Course History: T32
• PGA Championship: T41 (pain)

Doug Ghim (T40: $8.75 @ +170 on DK)

With three top-40s in his last five starts and a T14 here last year, Doug Ghim is our first top-40 bet and we think the Ghim Reaper can claim another T40 for us. He ranks ninth from inside 200 yards and gets his ball into the fairway with ease and regularity. He is also thirteenth in the field in bogey avoidance which is ideal for a T40 bet.

• Model Rank: 24
• SG APP L24: 38
• Proximity 100-200: 9
• Good Drives Gained: 15
• SG Putting on Bent L50: 92
• Bogey avoidance: 13
• Course History: T14, MC, MC

Kevin Streelman (T40: $8.75 @ +200 on DK)

Kevin Streelman has four T40s in his last nine starts and fits this course quite nicely, finishing inside the top-40 twice in his last trio of starts here. Streelman climbed the model rankings on the tailcoats of his accuracy off the tee and precision inside 200 yards. As his solid ball striking numbers would suggest he also ranks inside the top quarter of the field in bogey avoidance which we love for our T40 bets.

• Model Rank: 27
• SG APP L24: 61
• Proximity 100-200: 20
• Good Drives Gained: 22
• SG Putting on Bent L50: 81
• Bogey avoidance: 24
• Course History: T20, MC, T31

Brian Stuard (T40: $8.75 +250 on DK)

Stuard has made six consecutive cuts at this event and was playing some impressive golf before two missed cuts at his last two events. It is also worth noting that he played 10 events in an 11-week span leading up to those two MCs. He never played in the PGA so he should have enjoyed some much-needed rest for the first time in a while.

 

The Farewell Fiver

Stewart Cink (T10: $5 @ +1000 on DK)

Stewart Cink finished T10 at this course in 2017 and has two top-10s in his last five starts. He finished T23 at the PGA which is also encouraging. If Harbour Town is a comparative course to Colonial, we know Cink is capable of winning here and we are shooting from the hip with a +1000 top-10 for our bald beauty!

PGA Championship Recap:

• Outright: -$12.45
• FRL: -$12.55
• Placings: -$15.80
• Farewell Fiver(s): $-5
• Total: -$35.80
• Season Total: +$15.49

We learnt a valuable lesson last week. A few hours after we released the article the tee times came out and seven of the 10 placement bets we made found themselves in the PM_AM wave which inevitably landed up averaging two strokes more than AM_PM as a result of the winds. Two of the three AM_PM golfers we placed bets on cashed. But such is the nature of the beast and we learnt our lesson. Hey! We are still up on the season though! As always we limited the damage and we are one big week away from padding that bank roll and rolling into work on Monday with a Breaking-$100 swagger that will turn heads faster than a Cameron Smith duck-hook.

As always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!

 

 

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