RADIO
Admittedly, it's as exciting to measure 'swing and take' metrics as it would be to look at something like Barrels. One of them often results in a long fly ball that leaves the ballpark and puts runs on the scoreboard. The other can be a player staring at the umpire after watching a pitch hit the catcher's mitt. Still, the basis of any offensive player evaluation begins with plate discipline. The more likely a hitter is to swing at good pitches rather than bad ones, the better the results.
Statcast's swing and take leaderboard categorized pitches in four ways: Heart, Shadow, Chase, Waste. A thorough explanation of the rationale behind it is available on the TangoTiger blog. The Reader's Digest version is basically that hitters are assigned run values based on how often they swing based on the quality of the pitch based on location. Swinging more often at pitches in the heart of the zone is good, while chasing is bad. At the same time, taking pitches that are called strikes result in negative run values while laying off anything in the chase or waste zone is predictably a net positive. It all comes together in one neat formula with a +/- value to determine how smart a batter is approaching his plate appearances over the course of a season.
Now, let's dive into some noteworthy players at both ends of the spectrum to determine the significance early in the 2022 fantasy baseball. Look for more Statcast analysis for fantasy leagues as well as Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds on RotoBaller each week!
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Swing & Take Leaders
All stats courtesy of BaseballSavant and current as of 5/9/22.
Taylor Ward, Los Angeles Angels
+15 Swing/Take Run Value (4 out of 300)
If you thought good batted-ball luck alone was to thank for Ward's hot start, you'd be wrong. Perhaps the reason that Joe Maddon loves Ward so much and decided to demote Jo Adell was that he values plate discipline more than we realize.
Ward isn't an exceptionally toolsy player, grading out at a 40 in power and 30 in speed. Where he excels is his hit tool, as well as fielding. This would seem to make him a better real-life player than fantasy asset which is why he went undrafted across the fantasy landscape. But this year, he is putting it all together to provide help in the area where we didn't realize we'd need it most: batting average.
Ward is hitting .364 and has scored 20 runs, ranking second and seventh respectively among qualified batters in those categories. He swings far less at pitches in the Shadow zone, which is why he's drawing an eye-popping 19.8% walk rate. Some will point to a .440 BABIP and scream "regression is coming!" His .304 xBA and outstanding plate discipline say otherwise. The fact that he's hitting batting leadoff ahead of Mike Trout is a great sign that he'll see plenty of hittable pitches from here on out. Buy, buy, buy into the breakout season.
Rowdy Tellez, Milwaukee Brewers
+12 Swing/Take Run Value (6 out of 300)
This would be an appropriate usage of the "It's Happening" gif from The Office. Many of our analysts at RotoBaller have been waiting for the Rowdy breakout and it seems to have arrived.
— Pierre Camus (@Roto_Chef) January 15, 2022
Rowdy isn't being more patient and he's not even striking out less. He's just knocking the crap out of the ball when he sees it near the zone.
His early numbers include a 98th percentile Barrel rate, 100th percentile xSLG, 100th percentile xwOBA, and 88th percentile xBA. That's pretty good.
Quality of contact has never really been the issue. The two small adjustments he's made that are making all the difference are to swing at fewer first pitches and wait for "his pitch" and to get his launch angle up. A spike in fly balls is a great thing to see for a power hitter. This might turn out to be a textbook example of a launch angle adjustment resulting in a true breakout.
Jazz Chisholm Jr., Miami Marlins
+10 Swing/Take Run Value (11 out of 300)
Naysayers were dogging Jazz in the preseason because he struck out too much in 2021. Rather than predicting him to be a draft bust, they could have accepted the idea that an uber-talented 24-year-old could improve his plate discipline and harness his natural power.
Chisholm has a beautifully balanced profile, swinging at Heart pitches six percent above league average and laying off Shadow and Chase pitches three percent less. Most importantly, he is getting good wood on those pitches across the heart of the zone. Although his zone contact% is five points lower than the MLB average, he boasts a 50% hard-hit rate and a 27.3% line drive rate.
Those of us who bought into Jazz Chisholm on draft day were mainly attracted to the stolen base potential but are being rewarded handsomely with power and a .310 batting average from a soon-to-be All-Star infielder.
Swing & Take Strugglers
All stats courtesy of BaseballSavant and current as of 5/9/22.
Whit Merrifield, Kansas City Royals
-13 Swing/Take Run Value (300th out of 300)
It's really hard to believe that Merrifield, a career .286 hitter who has led the majors in hits twice, is performing so poorly over a long stretch. It has gotten to the point that Merrifield was dropped to sixth in the lineup from his customary leadoff spot. He's at .140/.183/.170 for a 2022 slash line, which is impressively bad for any Major Leaguer, much less a veteran who is a two-time All-Star.
There have been signs of a drop-off, as his expected batting average did drop 29 points last year compared to 2020. He's never been one to hit the ball especially hard, so making consistent contact is a necessity. But that's not the issue, as his strikeout rate is still extremely low and his overall contact rates are fairly similar to career norms.
As illustrated above, a -10 Swing Runs value is simply due to poor quality of contact. Don't get me wrong, he's never killed it in that area. He gets by on his superior eye and batted-ball placement, coupled with above-average speed. It doesn't appear as if any of that has gone away, given his 7.3% K-BB% and 87th percentile sprint speed. This might honestly be a case of bad luck. He's got a .157 BABIP despite no dramatic shifts in batted-ball profile other than a slight jump in fly ball rate. While the entire Royals offense has been a big letdown, it may be time to buy low on Merrifield before things turn around.
Jonathan Schoop, Detroit Tigers
-11 Swing/Take Run Value (298 out of 300)
Here's an easy one - Schoop is struggling in the Shadow zone as usual. His swing rate at Shadow pitches is 16% higher than MLB average and 10 points higher than his rate from last year. The truth is that he's always had difficulty here, posting a negative Swing/Take value in all but one of his nine Major League seasons.
Schoop is hurting in the Heart zone because he just isn't getting anything out of his swings, especially on fastballs which he typically handles well. This season, he's batting .146 on fastballs as opposed to .323 last year and .324 the year before. His expected average on fastballs is .319 and he's got a similar batted-ball profile with a strong 26% LD%. It sounds overly optimistic but the numbers tell us a hot streak could be in store.
He's never been one to walk much at all, so don't take away anything from his Take Runs. If he's going to turn things around, it will be by doing exactly what he has always done and just hoping for better results.
Marcell Ozuna, Atlanta Braves
-11 Swing/Take Run Value (295 out of 300)
After the first two weeks of the season, it looked like Ozuna was back to being a superior hitter without missing a beat. Oddly enough, ever since Ronald Acuna came back, Ozuna hasn't benefited as expected. Instead, he's been taking it easy at the plate with just three hits in 31 at-bats in May.
The biggest thing that sticks out is a walk rate that is down to 4.8% for someone who usually hovers around the league average, if not slightly above it. Signs point to the power still being intact but he's being a little impatient at the plate and generating weaker contact. This shouldn't be a long-term concern, so hold for now.
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