2024 Fantasy Football: Dynasty Startup Mock Draft (Non-Superflex)

February 27, 2024

Chris Gregory breaks down a recent mock draft conducted by RotoBaller football writers with his own analysis of each team and their selections.

Last week, we posted the results of a rookies-only dynasty draft featuring 12 staff members. That mock gave you an idea of what rookie drafts might look like in established non-Superflex dynasty leagues. That format didn't show you the value of veterans compared to these incoming rookies, though. For that, we had to perform a full startup mock.

To do this, twelve of our writers joined a mock that used the most common settings for a non-Superflex startup. Namely, we used standard PPR settings with no extra scoring for QBs or TEs. We included rookies and vets in one pool and allowed trades, though none were executed. Rosters include one QB, two RBs, three WRs, and two Flex spots. No kicker, D/ST or individual defender spots are used.

With these settings in mind, you will find the team-by-team breakdowns of each dynasty team below. Notes on team strategies, value picks, reaches, and noteworthy builds are included. Also included are notations on how many rookies are on each team, how many vets with five-plus years were taken, and what each team’s designated strategy was.

Team #1 (Chris Gregory)

Rookie Overdose: Building a roster with 60% rookies is risky. That said, each rookie I selected felt like the best dynasty value available. For example, I have a higher grade on Brock Bowers than I did Dalton Kincaid in 2023, and Bowers has less baggage than Kyle Pitts or Mark Andrews. Meanwhile, Brian Thomas Jr. has the true WR1 upside that Josh Downs and Diontae Johnson don’t.

More examples include Ladd McConkey and Jaylen Wright. McConkey’s speed in and out of breaks is special, plush his floor feels higher than Quentin Johnston's or Michael Wilson's. McConkey is also younger than DeAndre Hopkins and Mike Williams. As for Wright, his long speed and receiving ability are worth more to me than underwhelming journeymen like Cam Akers, Zay Jones, or JuJu Smith-Schuster.

Building for the Future Means Waiting on Running Back: After taking rookies with three of my first five picks, I knew I would be building for 2025 or beyond. This choice led me to punt on running back and QB. Veterans were never a priority for me, either. Upside and youth were the priorities, especially given how limited the veteran upside got after the first seven rounds.

While the selections of Nick Chubb and Travis Kelce could keep me competitive, they were my only win-now moves. This is evident, considering they’re the only five-year vets on my squad.

Always Wait on a QB in Non-Superflex: Four teams drafted passers in the second round of this mock. Seven teams had taken a QB by the seventh. Five squads ended up rostering three quarterbacks in total, although they could only start one.

Despite this early push on passers, quality starting quarterbacks were still available in the double-digit rounds. Jordan Love and Kyler Murray were particularly good values in the tenth round. I was happy to wait even longer, nabbing massive rushing upside by taking Jayden Daniels in the 12^th round. I’ll take Malik Nabers and Daniels over C.J. Stroud and Demario Douglas any day.

Team #2 (Mo Aneizi)

Extreme Balance: Team Aneizi built his squad with enough established players to contend today. He also has enough youth to remain relevant in three years. He accomplished this by balancing unproven youth like Troy Franklin and Anthony Richardson with veterans on their last legs like Cooper Kupp and Aaron Jones. He then sprinkled in some accomplished young veterans like CeeDee Lamb and Trey McBride for consistency.

Risk and Reward: The riskiest pick that Mo made in this mock was taking Kyren Williams in the second round. If Williams can repeat his workload and performance from 2023, this is a fantastic pick that can help him win for three or four years. If the Rams bring in someone to supplement Williams at the goal line or share significant touches, this pick could age quickly.

McBride carries similar risks to Williams. He is also a sophomore whose 2023 breakout was fueled by big volume. McBride’s 8.5 targets per game, after Zach Ertz’s injury, led all tight ends. Despite that volume, he finished just 18^th in TDs and 14^th in yards per reception amongst TEs with 50 or more targets. Translation: McBride is volume-dependent, and Marvin Harrison Jr. could steal a lot of it.

Mixed Bag in Middle Rounds: Mo got tremendous value when he selected Keaton Mitchell in the 13^th round. The odds of Mitchell falling that far in summer drafts are low. Mo also got solid value with Brenden Rice in the 19^th and Xavier Legette in the 15^th rounds. However, Zay Jones was taken ahead of much more interesting rookies who were available, while Cade Otten shouldn’t go over Luke Musgrave or Dalton Schultz.

Team #3 (Keith Hernandez)

Passing on Rookies: As is clear by now, this rookie class could be historic in terms of receiving talent. It also has potential stars at tight end and quarterback. So, any dynasty team with zero exposure to this class could miss out big. Jerick McKinnon lacks upside or longevity, while Skyy Moore has been worthless in two years with Patrick Mahomes. Why not take rookies instead?

Boom-or-Bust: If Team Hernandez hits, they should hit for power. Justin Fields has shown he can be an elite fantasy QB when he's on. Jaylen Waddle has been elite with Tyreek Hill off the field and sometimes with him out there. There is volatility to this squad, though.

First among Keith’s risks is the uncertainty surrounding Justin Fields’ final destination. If Fields ends up in a bad situation or hurt early, Team Hernandez’s backup options inspire little confidence. Neither Deshaun Watson nor Bryce Young was worth starting in fantasy last year. Christian Watson's volatility and injury history don't fit a contender build either, nor does Brian Robinson fit in a contender’s PPR flex.

Team #4 (Josh Constantinou)

The Definition of Win-Now: When a dynasty team invests zero picks in a rookie, it should be in win-now territory. When two of its first eight picks are running backs over the age of 26, it must be in win-now territory. Neither Joe Mixon nor Saquon Barkley will have much fantasy value in three years, and that value could tank much sooner. Drafting them, Amari Cooper, and taking zero rookies is an all-in build.

The trouble with this win-now build is the lack of reliable depth behind the older players it relies on. The primary backups for Mixon and Barkley are Ty Chandler and Chuba Hubbard. Neither reserve is guaranteed a starting role in 2024 nor a fantasy-relevant one in 2025. Meanwhile, the selection of Jahan Dotson over Keenan Allen doesn’t fit his urgent build.

Pending Medicals: This team's success will depend a lot on the health of Tank Dell and T.J. Hockenson. Both are coming off major surgery and were selected early by Josh. They fill prominent starting roles on this roster, so their early health will be key to a win-now build. Odds favor Dell being a full-go in Week 1, but Hockenson’s availability is in doubt. A contender missing its fourth-round pick is a problem.

Team #5 (Matt Donnelly)

How to Commit to a Win-Now Plan: Given how he started this mock, Team Donnelly’s team composition makes sense. Once you invest two of your first three picks in running backs, taking established veteran receivers is a logical move to fill things out. Deebo Samuel, Stefon Diggs, D.J. Moore, Marquise Brown, and DeAndre Hopkins all fit that build. They also carry significant injury, age, or volume concerns that could hamper this team's chances.

Risks Worth Taking?: Seven of Matt's projected starters have suffered serious injuries over the past two years. While this is not always a predictor of future outcomes, the age of these players also plays a factor. At 30, Diggs' decline late in 2023 could be a sign of things to come. Meanwhile, Deebo and Hollywood have lengthy injury histories and face significant competition for targets, especially if Marvin Harrison Jr. goes to Arizona.

Team #6 (Brad Camara)

The Urgency of a Running Back Build: Team Camara drafted just six veterans with five or more years of NFL experience. That’s usually a good sign for team longevity. However, two of his best players are Bijan Robinson and Kenneth Walker. Those backs give him an immense advantage at a thin position over the next three or four years. However, their short shelf life also limits how long he can contend without a true WR1.

Adding to this age problem is Austin Ekeler, who showed serious signs of decline in 2023. Ekeler will be 29 this year, and he isn't the ideal fit for a Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman offense. The veteran's receiving ability does give him a bigger window of fantasy viability than most, but it's unclear if he will be in the right situation to take advantage.

Gambling on Receivers: If Brandon Aiyuk were traded to a team with an elite passer and an open WR1 spot, such as Jacksonville, taking him in the third round of a dynasty startup would make great sense. Unfortunately, the odds favor Aiyuk staying with the 49ers. In San Francisco, he has averaged just 6.6 targets per game over the past two years. That’s the volume of a mid-tier WR2 that should be taken in the fifth round.

Jayden Reed was another big gamble, given he is Team Camara’s WR2 and was taken in the fifth round. Reed’s rookie snap rate was alarmingly inconsistent, and it didn’t help that Jordan Love liked to spread the ball around. Reed played less than half the Packers’ offensive snaps in four of their final seven games and had 11 total targets in their final three. That usage concerns me enough to take George Pickens or Terry McLaurin over him.

Team #7 (Matt Terelle)

Youth Without Rookies: Team Terelle is one of several that ignored this tremendous rookie class. That doesn’t mean he’s without promising young talent, however. Matt got upside and youth early, drafting players with less than five years of NFL experience with each of his first five picks. Those picks allow Team Terelle to stay young while avoiding the volatility of a heavy-rookie build.

Garrett Wilson has the potential to be the top overall fantasy receiver in 2024 if Aaron Rodgers is healthy. Meanwhile, the likes of George Pickens, Michael Pittman Jr., and Jordan Addison have all proven they can produce at a high level in the NFL despite their youth. While I prefer Marvin Harrison Jr. over Wilson and Rome Odunze over Addison, Matt’s choices are safer and still offer upside.

Concerns Over Herbert: Greg Roman, the Chargers’ new offensive coordinator, is a historically run-heavy play caller. When Roman was asked about his offense at his introductory press conference, he talked about the run game. When asked about Justin Herbert, Roman talked more about the run. When reporters noted that Herbert was at his best when throwing a lot, Roman nodded… and talked more about the run.

I don’t hate Herbert. He is a superstar, and I’ve been a fan since his Oregon days. I do hate Greg Roman’s offense and what it could do to Herbert, though. If Roman can say with a straight face that NFL defenses fear strong run attacks more than passing ones, when the arms of Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes have won four of the past five Super Bowls, it warrants worry.

Team #8 (Andrew Ball)

Another Win-Now Build: Team Ball used his first three selections on immediate difference makers at WR. Tyreek Hill and A.J. Brown are both elite options who should put together at least one more season of top-end production, so they are fine pieces for an urgent build. Nico Collins is also a fine selection for a team looking to win this year and after, though Tank Dell's presence pushes Collins into the fifth round for me.

After investing in Hill and Brown early, Team Ball was committed to a win-now build. Considering that, it was reasonable for him to use fourth and seventh-round picks on Mark Andrews and David Montgomery. Both should return on investment for at least two years, while pick #9.8 was a reasonable price for a contender to pay for James Conner.

Najee Harris in the sixth was at least two rounds too high, though. He isn’t the most talented back on his team, he doesn’t see consistent volume in the passing game, and he is too dependent on touchdowns to be a sixth-round pick.

Take the Good and the Bad: Andrew made two solid rookie selections late, taking Drake Maye and Roman Wilson in the 14^th and 17^th rounds, respectively. Both were some of the better options available. Given his big arm and mobility, Maye has the upside to be a top-ten fantasy passer someday. Meanwhile, Wilson carries PPR value as a sudden and incredibly quick slot option.

However, the choices of Dontayvion Wicks in the 12th and Demario Douglas in the 13^th were reaches. Keaton Mitchell, Adonai Mitchell, Bucky Irving, and Khalil Shakir were better values. Meanwhile, selecting a third quarterback (Matthew Stafford) in a non-Superflex league was perplexing. This is especially true when potential league winners like Elijah Mitchell, Jaylin Wright, and Malachai Corley were there.

Team #9 (LaQuan Jones)

Running Backs Plus a Future: Team Jones has a relatively balanced roster, given its win-now bones. The selections of Drake London, Puka Nacua, and Terry McLaurin give LaQuan longevity at receiver, which can help balance his older roots at running back.

That said, committing serious resources to Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Derrick Henry, and Lamar Jackson necessitates that this team win soon. Each of those backs should be over the hill or retired by 2026, while Jackson’s playing style could catch up to him by age 30. However, the combination of CMC, Jackson, Nacua, and Kamara offers league-winning potential in the short term.

Likely Story: The choice of Isaiah Likely in the eighth round was particularly interesting for a team built like this. Dallas Goedert, Luke Musgrave, Dalton Schultz, and Michael Mayer were all available when Likely was chosen, and they are all better fits for a veteran squad like LaQuan’s. Relying on Baltimore’s backup tight end as a starter is unnecessarily risky for a team made to win in 2024.

Team #10 (Jorden Hill)

A Fellow Rookie Addict: Team Hill took the first rookie off the board, selecting Marvin Harrison Jr with the tenth overall pick. While that move was a tad earlier than expected, it wasn’t a reach. The former Buckeye was WR8 off the board but is WR4 in my dynasty rankings. I would take Harrison over A.J. Brown, Puka Nacua, and Garrett Wilson in a dynasty startup.

After taking Harrison, Jorden drafted several veterans before smartly stacking his bench with the upside of a deep rookie class. It would be a minor miracle if at least two of Caleb Williams, Adonai Mitchell, Xavier Worthy, Ja’Tavion Sanders, and Trey Benson didn’t become quality fantasy starters in the next two years. That’s more than several of these other teams have on their entire bench.

Balancing Act: Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams, and Keenan Allen are all superstars who may have one more top-ten season in them. They were drafted at reasonable costs, too. Their dependability mixes well with the upside of Harrison Jr., Jaxon Smith-Njigba, DeVonta Smith, Worthy, and Benson.

Team Hill did a far better job than I of balancing rookies with veteran stability. While I may like most of my rookies more than his, this team carries far less volatility.

Weaknesses: The biggest concern on Team Hill’s squad is his RB2. Jorden currently has Kendre Miller slotted into that spot and must hope Trey Benson can supplant him after the NFL Draft. This is a risky play if Jorden plans on competing immediately, though.

While Miller is young, he wasn't one of the three best backs on the Saints as a rookie. Benson, Chase Brown, Bucky Irving, and Keaton Mitchell are all ahead of him on my board. However, Benson isn’t a particularly safe RB2 play in 2024, either. While some are high on the Seminole, he is likely a third-round pick in the Draft who will rely on passing volume for immediate fantasy value.

Team #11 (Kevin Campbell)

Waiting on QB Works… Again, Team Campbell smartly waited until the tenth round to draft a passer. He still ended up with Jordan Love, who flashed elite potential to close 2023. By waiting for Love, Kevin got a high-upside starting quarterback and still devoted his first nine selections to more valuable positions. The quality of Kevin's early draft choices is up for debate, but the quality of his process is not.

Some Reaches: Several of Kevin’s choices were headscratchers, starting with his first. While Sam LaPorta is the dynasty TE1 on most boards, his edge at the position is not worth a first-round investment. Were trades more active in this mock, Kevin likely would’ve traded back and gotten LaPorta later. If he did that, adding future picks in the process, I would grade the LaPorta selection as a win.

Kyle Pitts, D’Andre Swift, and Diontae Johnson were more picks that felt like reaches in this one. Pitts was a particularly odd choice given that this was not a TE Premium mock and Team Campbell had already used their first-round pick on LaPorta. Meanwhile, the choices of Swift and Johnson were also a tad high. Neither has a long-term contract and each has struggled with consistency and health.

Team #12 (Ryan Goodman)

Waiting on WR: When you use your first two picks on a running back and quarterback, you give yourself an edge at those positions. You are also setting yourself way back at WR, a particular problem in PPR formats. For that reason, most teams that start with this build will attack the WR position with each of their next four picks. You should use at least two of those picks on someone with WR1 upside.

Team Goodman does an admirable job executing this strategy. Drafting Zay Flowers and Tee Higgins at the three/four turn gave him two talented receivers who should be mid-tier WR2s with a WR1 game here and there. He then supplemented those picks with the old-reliable Mike Evans. These are safe moves, but age and situation limit each player's potential to become a true WR1.

Chase More Upside: While Team Goodman’s initial build is solid, with an elite RB and QB duo paired with three WR2s, he stumbled after that. He drafted far too many low-ceiling pieces to fill his flex and bench. This is especially concerning if you consider the ages of Evans and Raheem Mostert. With no real WR1 option on this roster, I’d have liked to see him take Keon Coleman or Troy Franklin.

Another QB Taken Too High: As I've said multiple times before, quarterbacks aren't super valuable in non-Superflex formats. While Josh Allen gives you an edge at his position, that edge isn’t worth the 13^th pick in a non-Superflex dynasty startup. If you’re trying to win immediately in a single QB format, would you rather have Josh Allen and Romeo Doubs or Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Love?

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